For the time being, we are postponing our war policy in Ukraine.
Scroll down the blog to stay up-to-date on today’s developments.
By Sean Bell, Military Analyst
President Putin knows that his critical vulnerability lies in the capability of the Western military and that if the West were directly involved in the defense of Ukraine, Russia’s goals would no longer be achievable.
As a result, Russia continues its military strategy in Ukraine with targeted rhetoric and data operations designed to deter Western governments from expanding their military aid to Ukraine.
As Putin’s considerations increased, the rhetoric became more incendiary, leading to more normal nuclear saber attacks.
You can learn more about this on Bell’s RedMatrix podcast.
However, Putin is also aware that a nuclear war would have no winner; the concept has been described as MAD – Mutually Assured Destruction.
If the strategy succeeds and the West is deterred from protecting a country from Russian aggression, what will be Russia’s (and China’s) broader ambitions for “empire”?
Last week, Russia decided to remind the world that it had developed the toughest and longest-range intercontinental ballistic missile, called SATAN II, capable of delivering nuclear weapons to any point on the Earth’s surface.
Russia uses the risk of escalation as a weapon of war. No civilized country needs to go to war, and reminding nations of the potential consequences of escalation is a strong deterrent.
However, history shows that there are times when other people have to make possible decisions if they want to maintain their lifestyle and the values they hold dear.
A utopian world in which all nations live in peace might have a lasting appeal, but the hard truth is that there are those who will seek to capitalize, build empires, and galvanize primary conflicts.
The ever-present challenge is when to stand up to those tyrants, and history suggests that the faster, the better.
Putin knows that his battle-depleted forces will not be up to the West’s air and ground power, so he has any and all tools at his disposal to deter further Western involvement. And this strategy turns out to be working.
However, if the West makes the decision not to fool Putin and settle for Russia’s competitive expansion, what will be the next step?
Russia is keeping company and continuing what it calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine in reaction to the West’s military fervor, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
Peskov said at the same time that the West is not unanimous about the movements made by the Ukrainian army on Russian territory with Western weapons.
NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly has called on Ukraine’s member states of “international law” to protect themselves by lifting “certain restrictions” on Kiev’s use of Western weapons in Russia (see 10:57 a. m. message). m. ).
Vladimir Putin said the West provoked the Kremlin’s new offensive in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region by ignoring warnings to allow Kyiv to attack Russia’s Belgorod region.
In an earlier speech, the Russian president said that the attacks on Belgorod this month were carried out with weapons provided through the West and were only imaginable with the help of specialists from Western countries.
“[The West] perceives what it is playing with,” Putin warned, adding that any escalation could have “serious consequences. ”
Kharkiv remains a prime target after Russia opened a new front on the northeastern border.
Over the weekend, Moscow’s Defense Ministry claimed to have accepted Ivanivka’s deal, but the victory in the Kharkiv region was the subject of conflicting reports, with Volodymyr Zelenskyy claiming that Ukraine had secured “control of the fighting. “
Ukraine “rejected” peace talks
When asked about possible peace negotiations with Ukraine, Putin blamed Kyiv for refusing to negotiate.
He said Russia has never given up on peace talks and is in a position to return to them, but claimed that Ukraine is instead focused on its fortunes on the battlefield.
“It was Ukraine that rejected the peace talks,” Putin said.
“They don’t need to agree, but they seek to replace the scenario on the battlefield. In this case, Ukrainians will suffer more losses. “
The footage shows a squad of Ukrainian drones placing a grenade on a drone before flying over Russian troop positions.
The 95th Independent Air Brigade is on the front line in the Donbas region.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy is scheduled to Joe Biden to attend the peace summit hosted in Kyiv in Switzerland next month.
The Ukrainian president said that if the U. S. president missed the event, it would be like a status ovation for Vladimir Putin.
Ukraine hopes to host as many countries as possible in a bid to unite views on how to end the war and put more pressure on Russia, which has seized about a fifth of Ukraine’s territory.
On Sunday, Zelensky suggested that Biden, his Chinese counterpart and Putin’s closest best friend Xi Jinping attend the summit.
Russia has said it sees the need for such a conference.
These images show Russian volunteers posing before handing over devices to an informal military unit made up of Russians fighting in the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Sofia, Bulgaria.
The budget comes from voluntary donations from ethnic Russians and Russians living in Bulgaria.
More than 1,400 Russians have been wounded since last Friday, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.
Moscow lost 21 tanks and 40 armored fighting vehicles, according to the statement.
Although Western estimates of Russian casualties differ from those of Ukraine, they are nonetheless a sign of the staggering human burden of the war on Moscow.
Russia systematically publishes the number of casualties or loss of equipment. Ukraine provides some figures, though rarely.
In February, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said 31,000 of his men had been killed in two years of war.
Poland does not rule out sending troops to Ukraine, Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in comments published today.
This comes as Kyiv struggles to repel Russian advances in Ukraine.
Sikorski did specify what role Polish troops would play in the conflict.
Ukraine’s NATO allies have pledged to supply the embattled country with weapons and cash for as long as it takes to repel Russia’s invasion, but have ruled out sending troops.
Earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron had warned that Western troops could simply exercise Ukrainians in Ukraine.
This comes after the commander of Ukraine’s most sensible army said he had signed documents authorizing French army instructors to enter Ukrainian schools soon.
As Russia opens a new front on Ukraine’s northeastern border, the war is entering a phase.
Readers sent their questions to our senior correspondents and Army experts to get their perspectives on the changing battlefield environment.
Today, Tali-IhanTala asks:
When will the F-16s arrive? I sincerely believe that they will mark a turning point in the war.
Military analyst Sean Bell said:
While there is a growing expectation that the first batch of F-16 fighter jets delivered to Ukraine could arrive in early July, it is unclear whether the other elements of this tough air force capability will be in position until then.
To provide a credible and effective Ukrainian combat air capability, well-trained and experienced pilots, ground personnel, weapons, defensive aids, and radars are required. All of that will have to be in place before the Ukrainian Air Force is in a position to have interaction in the war opposed to the Russian army.
Once the F-16s are in place, the challenge Ukraine will face will be when and where to use those valuable resources and how to prevent them from being destroyed before they can contribute to the Ukrainian defensive effort.
They will provide Ukraine with an invaluable, if scarce, resource. F-16s may only be used on the front line, but they will be highly vulnerable in this dynamic and hostile air environment.
They could also be used to bring out moves opposed to key military targets inside Russian territory, effectively forcing Moscow to replace its tactics. Or, if Ukraine wanted to threaten Crimea, the F-16s could simply be used as a component of a coordinated attack as part of a broader campaign.
In any case, with Russia at the forefront in the Donbas, Ukraine wants everything it can to oppose the Russian push on the battlefield.