President Donald Trump and Congressional Democrats disagree on the comprehensive stimulus bill on COVID-19. As far as I know, Congressional Republicans are sitting on the couch, nibbling on popcorn and watching the show.
I regularly think that congressional clutter is hurting the country and eroding the constitutional order. The Constitution provides that Congress will make the most of the tables to federal policy.
In this case, however, disorder and stagnation serve the national interest. Make it last.
Simply put, the country does not want a full COVID-19 bill. He didn’t want the precedents either.
Instead of a technique aimed at fitness and economic disorders caused by the COVID-19 epidemic, we have had a bipartisan spending frenzy on anything that may be tangentially similar to COVID-19, and many things that are even tangentially similar.
There were 4 broad categories for which an accumulation of expenditure would have been justified in response to COVID-19:
So far, Congress has taken $3.7 trillion in reaction to COVID-19. A relatively small portion of this amount was used to cover the expenses of those 4 categories. For example, only $250 billion has been spent on sources of income for the new unemployed.
There is no need for an additional, dispersed and heavy bill. The economy and epidemic are stabilizing.
The economy is no longer in freefall. Unemployment is high, but low. Job opportunities multiply. In fact, many employers point to difficulties in hiring workers, as in many cases there has been more to pay unemployment than to work.
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COVID-19 remains a serious public fitness problem. But the survival mechanisms in which the states have fallen appear to have eliminated the threat of overwhelming hospital resources. We know where the death threat is concentrated. A better job, not yet smart enough, is being done to protect vulnerable populations.
The economy, as survival mechanisms, and the disease that follows will allow wider reopening. A new stimulus from Congress will not even drive the trajectory of this process.
And if an extra stimulus can help, it’s already baked in the cake. According to the Committee for a Federal Responsible Budget (talking about lost causes), $1.5 trillion of what has already been allocated has not yet been spent. In Keynesian terms, it is a stimulus of almost 8% of GDP that has not yet affected the economy. He thought about a lot.
It can be argued simply to increase the benefits of additional unemployment to a more modest level, in order to deter returning to work. Beyond that, Congress is talking about accumulating even more debt with negligible effects.
Congress has allocated nearly $300 billion in tax cuts for almost everyone, whether or not they are affected by economic closures. The main effect has been to push savings rates to historic highs. People won’t return to overall spending behavior until they feel confident about the future.
Although the first of the general tax cuts is overlooked, at least in terms of stimulus, a moment is on the new spending proposed through House Democrats and Senate Republicans.
The paycheck coverage program, to help small businesses, a predictable disaster, actually planned in that same space. Wealthy professional companies made it to the top. Stories continue to circulate that corporations are getting subsidized loans that didn’t want them. The federal government has been transforming the rules. After the well-off and the dead have received their loans on the loose, they are left without under-signing $130 billion.
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Democrats need to bail out state and local governments. But more than part of the $150 billion they’ve already earned hasn’t been spent. In addition, well-managed states that have effectively confronted COVID-19 and kept their economies, like Arizona, vibrant, can manage without further federal help. Much of what Arizona has already earned remains unused.
There is no convincing economic or public aptitude justification for the large full COVID-19 dollar bill.
Instead, coertion is political. Politicians still feel a desire to be noticed for doing something and blaming the other aspect for doing enough.
Robert Robb is an editorial columnist for The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com, where this column was originally published. Follow him on Twitter: @RJRobb