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In the grim rating of the worst COVID-19 outbreaks, the United States, with 7. 2 million infections, is likely to be overshadowed only through India, which has 1 million fewer cases and is still catching up.
However, parts of India have led the world in one facet of the pandemic response: tactile location: laborious, tedious and laborious paintings to identify others exposed to a known inflamed person.
In-depth contact studies in two southern Indian states provide the most powerful evidence to date that a few widespread Americans are guilty of a disproportionate percentage of new coronavirus infections, according to a study published Wednesday in the journal Science. virus transmitters more effective than you think.
A team of Indian and American researchers tested the knowledge of 575071 others evaluated after contacting 84965 others who showed COVID-19 cases. This is an average of seven case-compatible contacts and a cohort more than 10 times larger than in a previous study. in South Korea that mapped how the virus was transmitted.
“This is by far the largest epidemiological study on COVID,” said leader Ramanan Laxminarayan of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy in New Delhi.
Laxminarayan and his colleagues found that only 8% of others with COVID-19 accounted for 60% of new inter-contact infections, while 7 out of 10 patients with COVID-19 were not connected to any new case.
The discovery highlights the role of superpropagators in the COVID-19 pandemic: an individual or event, as in a poorly ventilated indoor space, can cause a lot of new infections, while others may not transmit the virus at all.
In the new study, researchers discovered 78 other people who had shared a bus or exercise with one of the 8 known inflamed people and sat within 3 rows of that user for more than six hours. we did screening and decided that almost 80% had contracted the coronavirus.
On the other hand, other people known to be exposed to other inflamed people in low-risk environments, such as being in the same room but more than a metre away, were inflamed only 1. 6% of the time.
“Super-transmission occasions are the rule that exception, ” said Laxminarayan. “This has many implications for COVID modeling, on how to protect the place. “
The study suggests that superpropagation occasions are influenced by habit, that the proximity of an inflamed person, duration of contact and environmental situations are the point of risk. It doesn’t read about whether some other inflamed people spread the virus rather because of biological factors, a question for scientists who are still looking for an answer.
The effects can simply be security measures from consultants in places like gyms, churches and choir practice spaces that have been venues for previous super-transmission events.
The study also found that while young people under the age of 17 were the least likely to die of COVID-19, they transmitted the virus at a rate to the rest of the population, underlining the concept that the disease does not forgive young people A specific point of knowledge has implications for the reopening of schools : young people between the ages of five and 17 have transmitted the virus to 18% of contacts close to their age.
Antonio Salas, a Spanish researcher who has studied the role of superpropagators in the pandemic, said the findings of the youth study were quiet with “previous reports suggesting a smaller role of young people in the pandemic. “
“National policies on how to deal with young people in school and other social activities can be radically replaced if clinical evidence supports the concept that young people can infect as well as adults and, more importantly, can also behave as super propagators “. Salas said, who was not interested in the India study.
While the number of coronavirus cases in India has doubled in the past month, from 3 million to more than 6 million, the authors said their paintings showed the strength of the country’s response: the ability to mobilize a giant number of staff and fitness officials to carry out touch seekArray to identify high-risk Americans and monitor their cases closely.
The two Indian states in the study, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, have a combined population of 128 million and are located between the largest fitness workforce and the highest levels of public spending on fitness in the country. Years ago, the AIDS epidemic carried out door-to-door checks to degrees that were not noticed in other parts of the world.
In Tamil Nadu, which includes the coastal city of Chennai (formerly known as Madras), thousands of public and personal fitness personnel have been trained as touch trackers and fitness watchdogs. The state reveled in identifying at-risk populations through their opposing combat. AIDS, which affected Tamil Nadu more strongly than almost anywhere else in the country.
Once a user tested positive for coronavirus, a public fitness officer interviewed him on the phone to find out where he had been and whom he had met in the last two weeks. The immediate circle of family members was immediately examined and remote; others were located through phone calls and text messages.
Almost all of the discovered contacts were other people known to the inflamed user, so many strangers were missed; However, in Chennai, fitness staff tested an average of 17 contacts compatible with the inflamed user through August 1.
While tactile studies are for identifying, isolating, and testing others vulnerable to infection, and have helped countries like South Korea avoid disastrous epidemics, an effective formula has eluded most of the United States because of the lack of a skilled body of workers and funds.
The Los Angeles County Contact Research Program was unable to prevent primary epidemics and was hampered by language barriers, slow response times for the effects of controls, and erroneous patient information. of Tamil Nadu, had an equivalent number of fitness personnel covering a population one-third the size, said Chandra Mohan, a state official who helped oversee the reaction and co-authored the study.
Although the poorest countries now account for the highest coVID-19 cases in the world, much of what is known about how coronavirus is transmitted comes from small studies in China, the United States and rich countries in Europe.
India imposed one of the toughest blockades in the world at the end of March, measures that new discoveries have particularly slowed the spread of the virus. As Prime Minister Narfinishra Modi’s government eased restrictions to revive the economy, the disease reappeared as expected. But Mohan said the touch tracking program has saved lives.
Tamil Nadu recorded nearly 600,000 infections and 9,400 deaths, or thirteen deaths of 100,000 people. The COVID-19 mortality rate in the United States is approximately 62 consistent with 100,000.
“What is needed is clarity of idea and the ability to mobilize resources and use them,” Mohan said. “I think a smart government design makes the difference between what can be done and what can’t be done. “