The Day Before the Destruction: Can It Be Avoided in the Middle East?

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As Iran retaliates, Israel ponders its response. Cool heads and calm thinking are the moments when the Middle East is moving towards full-scale war. Stuart McCarthy discusses this eternal conflict.

The dramatic photographs of Iranian missiles intercepted through Israeli air defenses in the night sky last weekend are just a harbinger of what will be at stake if tensions in the Middle East continue to rise. As horrific as the human suffering in Gaza has been since October, there is a threat that the worst is yet to come if a cool head prevails. According to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, there is now “a genuine danger of devastating conflict on a large scale. “

The cause of Saturday’s Iranian attacks was the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus two weeks ago. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Quds Force, seven other IRGC officers, five militiamen, a Hezbollah fighter, an Iranian adviser and two civilians were reportedly killed (a mother and a child) when an annex of the consulate was destroyed. It was reportedly destroyed by six guided missiles introduced from Israeli Air Force F-35 fighter jets on April 1. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said:

Benjamin Netanyahu has absolutely lost his intellectual balance due to successive mistakes in Gaza and failure in his Zionist goals.

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Tensions between Israel, Iran and other Western and Middle Eastern actors involved in the escalation date back decades, before the rise of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks by Hamas and Al Qaeda, which dragged the West into a “global war on terror. “” than many of today’s animosities.

This broader context serves to understand how the clash between Israel and Gaza could lead to a ceasefire or to the clients of a lasting two-state solution.

But by the same token, the war in Gaza may be just a prelude to the worst to come.

Western interests in the region have long revolved around the flow of oil into the global economy, a strategic vulnerability too easily forgotten and exploited in the past by Middle Eastern states to target the West for Israel.

The Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries embargo, which triggered the first oil surprise of 1973, was a reaction to Western aid to Israel in the Fourth Arab-Israeli War. This war, in turn, was an attempt through Egypt and Syria to regain territories. lost through Israel in the Third Arab-Israeli War in 1967. These territories included the Golan Heights (Syria), the Sinai Peninsula (Egypt) and the Israeli border. – Occupied territories of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

The oil moment is surprising as a result of the Iranian revolution of 1979. While the complex reasons for this revolution remain open to debate, among them is a conservative backlash opposed to the secularization of the country from the Western-backed monarchy of the Shah of Iran. Now there is a Shiite Islamic theocracy.

The genesis of 9/11 and the subsequent wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are equally complex, but among al-Qaeda’s grievances was that of the Sunni-majority Arab states over the presence of the Western military in the Middle East. invade the Holy Land, thus triggering a popular Muslim uprising that would result in a regional, if not global, theocratic regime under a Wahhabi caliphate.

The West agreed with its ill-fated 20-year military crusade in Afghanistan and the epic strategic mistake of invading Iraq under a false pretext. One of the consequences of the latter has been the destruction of ISIS in Iraq, Syria and its affiliates elsewhere.

The instability in the Middle East – coupled with the role of Islamist terrorism – is largely the result of Western interventionism and strategic incompetence, even before we read about the explicit factor of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

As the West veered into a series of quagmires, Iran sought to oppose the risk posed by Israel and its Western allies. Alliances have been forged with Hamas and other regional actors, motivated not necessarily by a non-unusual devout ideology, but by non-hostile strategic interests in the fight that oppose Israel, its Western allies, and its aiding Arab states, in addition to Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

Other allies include Hezbollah in Lebanon and, more recently, the Houthis in Yemen. Both have been designated as terrorist organizations by Western governments and are believed to have more than 100,000 fighters in addition to gigantic stockpiles of traditional weapons.

Saturday night’s retaliatory missile moves against Israel were dismissed by some as a strategic miscalculation, a futile escalation gently thwarted through Israel’s air defense systems.

To dismiss this occasion would be to fail to appreciate the broader context, the main points of the attack, and Iran’s apparent strategic interests.

The so-called Hamas translates to “Islamic Resistance Movement. “The significance of the measures taken by Iran last weekend is that they are heralded (and even celebrated by some) as a transition from a “shadow war” to an open, traditional military through a more unified resistance. opposed to Israel’s profession of Palestine.

In the case of Hamas, at least, it transcends Sunni and Shiite sectarian interests. The movement now also turns out to be in a position to challenge the Western army for Israel despite the major dangers it entails, as evidenced by the Saudi and Western bombing crusade they opposed. to the Houthis in Yemen.

The rhetoric of the resistance movement has become popular among Western protesters who are pressuring their governments to withdraw in favor of Israel over considerations of violations of foreign humanitarian law in Gaza. The protest organizers are now employing the particular risk of “damaging the economy. “

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Saturday’s missile strikes, dubbed Operation True Promise through the IRGC, were telegraphed through Iran over a week. Not only did Iran warn Israel and the United States, but some reports recommend that the IRGC also warned Jordan and other Arab states to interfere “during the conflict. “punitive attack on the Zionist regime. “

The airstrike preceded the IRGC’s seizure of an Israeli-linked advertising vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, days after the IRGC’s naval commander boasted of his ability to close the critical sea lane. The prospect of a full-blown blockade triggering some other global attack Economic surprise is one of the main reasons for the Western naval presence in the Persian Gulf, a topic we’ll return to in a moment.

According to Israeli and other army sources, the projectiles fired at Israel on Saturday night included 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 110 ballistic missiles, introduced from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Iranian army leaders announced shortly after the shooting that this would end their retaliation for the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus if there is no further Israeli escalation.

Hezbollah said it also fired two rounds of rockets at an Israeli army base in the Golan Heights. Most of the Iranian projectiles appear to have been intercepted through Israeli air defenses and by Israeli, American, British, French and Jordanian aircraft. In the United States, a ballistic missile launcher and seven drones were destroyed in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

The drone and missile attacks targeted Israeli army facilities, including the Nevatim airbase in southern Israel. Nevatim hosts Israeli F-35 fighter jets, in addition to those believed to have been involved in the April 1 attack on the consulate in Damascus. Four missiles reportedly hit the airbase. A fifth reportedly targeted an army radar site in northern Israel, but missed the target. A child was reportedly injured in southern Israel when an Iranian drone was intercepted over his head.

While Israeli officials downplayed Iran’s successes, several independent experts warned that the measures were “well-calibrated” across Iran. They sought to have the strategic effect of retaliation for the Israeli attack on the consulate, while also deterring further escalation through Israel and minimizing the threat of direct attacks. Army intervention through the U. S. and other Western allies. Ali Vaezoff of the International Crisis Group told CNN:

This attack has crossed a mental threshold. This is the first time Iran has attacked Israel directly from its own soil, but I think it’s also an attack designed to be flashy but not deadly.

At the time of writing, Netanyahu’s war cabinet is reportedly engaged in a “heated debate” over how to respond, while Iran’s army leader said, “Our reaction will be much more than the army’s action [on Saturday night] if Israel retaliates against Iran. “President Biden, leaders of Arab states and other world leaders have called on Israel and Iran to de-escalate.

The stakes of an escalation into full-scale war escalate far beyond the Middle East, adding the option of some other global economic surprise. As worried as many Australians are about Gaza’s civilian population, such a surprise would likely have an impact: One-fifth of the world’s total oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is well-placed to cause a primary disturbance by employing supersonic or hypersonic anti-ship missiles if it chooses to do so.

Australia is one of the Western complex economies most vulnerable to such a shock. The demand-driven economy of the Covid-19 pandemic saw a reduction in domestic consumption of petroleum-based fuels of just 7%, a decline that was mainly due to air collapse. maritime transport, while the road transport sector continued to operate.

Our near-total dependence on imports of oil and subtle fuels, our long and vulnerable supply chains, and our forgetfulness of agreements portend a far worse surprise if a full-scale war breaks out in the Middle East.

While civil society’s efforts for a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine are commendable, those who criticize the parties to this standoff from the comfort of their living rooms are perhaps reflecting on how their own complacent reliance on a non-renewable resource is once again contributing to the cycle. of violence engulfing the region.

They could also live under the theocratic regime followed by some of the main actors in the confrontation. None of this is meant to diminish Israel’s atrocities in Gaza, but it deserves pause for those who applaud their favorite “side” in a confrontation. that threatens to spiral out of control.

In the meantime, let us hope that calm will prevail in the Middle East.

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