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No politician needs to tell us the true story of fossil fuel depletion. The real story is that we are already short of oil, coal and herbal fuel because direct and oblique extraction prices are reaching a point where the commercial value of food and other fundamental needs will have to be too high for the global economic formula to work. At the same time, wind, sun and other “clean energy” resources are not able to update the amount of fossil fuels lost.
This unfortunate history of power is necessarily a physics problem. Energy consistent with capital, and indeed resources consistent with capital, will have to remain high enough for the developing population of an economy. When this doesn’t happen, Hitale shows that civilizations have a Collapse tendency.
Politicians cannot admit that today’s global economy is heading for collapse, in a manner similar to that of past civilizations. Instead, they will have to give the ghost that they are in charge. The self-organized formula leads politicians to put reasons ahead. why the next adjustments may be desirable (to avoid climate change), or at least transitory (due to sanctions against Russia).
In this article, I will review at least some of the disorders involved.
[1] Citizens around the world may feel that something is wrong. It looks like the economy is heading towards a severe recession in the short term.
Consumer confidence is at an extremely low level, worse than the Great Recession of 2008-2009, according to a chart (Figure 2) presented on the University of Michigan Consumer Survey website. According to the same website, only about 48% of consumers blame inflation for eroding their popularity. Food prices have risen significantly. In recent years, the price of owning a car has increased, as has the price of buying or renting a home.
The scenario in Europe is at least as bad, if not worse. Citizens fear “freezing in the dark” this winter if electricity production cannot be maintained at a good enough level. Supplies of natural fuel, basically purchased from Russia through pipelines, are less available and expensive. Coal is also expensive. Due to the fall of the euro against the US dollar, the price of oil in euros is as high as in 2008 and 2012.
Many other countries, in addition to those in the euro area, have low exchange rates against the dollar. Some examples come with Argentina, India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Turkey, Japan, and South Korea.
China has problems with condo developers for its citizens. Many of those homes will be delivered to buyers as promised. In protest, buyers are withholding bills for their unfinished homes. price of those possible investments. All of this can lead to serious disruption for China’s banking sector.
Despite those major problems, the central banks of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the dominance of the euro are raising their target interest rates. increase the debt ratio. It doesn’t take much insight to realize that the combination of value inflation and EM borrowing prices is likely to force consumers to cut back on spending, leading to a recession.
[2] Politicians will avoid talking about long-term imaginable economic disorders similar to an insufficient energy supply.
Politicians must be re-elected. They need citizens to think that everything is fine. If there are problems with the power supply, they will be considered temporary, perhaps similar to the war in Ukraine. Alternatively, any challenges that arise will be discussed as if they can be solved without problems. with new law and maybe a little more debt.
Companies also need to minimize problems. They need citizens to place orders for their goods and services, without worrying about being fired. They would like the media to publish articles saying that any economic decline is likely to be very mild and temporary.
Universities don’t care about disorders, but they need the disorders to be explained as solvable disorders that will provide their students with opportunities for well-paid assignments. A deceptive short-term and insoluble scenario is useless.
[3] What it is is a physics problem. The functioning of our economy requires power of the right kind and quantity.
The economy is all that grows thanks to the “dissipation” of force. Examples of force dissipation come with digesting food to give humans strength, burning fossil fuels, and electrical power to force a soft light bulb. An accumulation in global force intake is strongly correlated with the expansion of the global economy. Lower strength intake is linked to an economic contraction.
In physical terms, the global economy is a dissipative structure, as are all plants, animals and ecosystems. All dissipative structures have a finite life, the global economy.
Moreover, economic researchers are not prepared to examine the history of the many smaller, more localized civilizations that collapsed in the past. deteriorate. Using technology, such as dams to redirect water flows, would have helped for a while, but in the end it wasn’t enough. The combination of reduced availability of high-quality resources and increased population ended up leaving those civilizations little room to deal with the bad times that might arise by chance. In many cases, those civilizations collapsed after epidemics, an army invasion, or a climate fluctuation that led to a series of crop failures.
[4] Many other people have been concerned about non-unusual misunderstandings about how an economy works.
[a] Standard economic models inspire confidence that the economy can continue to grow without a corresponding buildup in energy supply.
When economic models are designed with hard work and capital as inputs, the source of energy does not seem obligatory at all.
[b] People seem to perceive that the law limiting apartment rents will save them the structure of new apartments, but they don’t make the same connection to the measures taken to involve fossil fuel prices.
If efforts are made to reduce fossil fuel costs (such as raising interest rates and adding oil from U. S. oil reserves). In the U. S. to increase total oil supply), we deserve to expect extraction to be affected. One article reports that Saudi Arabia does not appear to be employing recent record profits to accumulate reinvestment to the point that seemed necessary a few years ago. This suggests that Saudi Arabia wants costs just above $100 per barrel to take significant steps to extract the country’s remaining resources. This would seem to contradict published reservations which, in theory, take into account existing costs.
Reuters reports that Venezuela has reneged on its promise to send more oil to Europe, as part of an oil-for-debt deal. It would take a long era of much higher costs than the current point for Venezuela to invest enough in infrastructure to carry out such refining. barrels reported through Saudi Arabia, but neither country can count on significant measures to increase supply.
Similarly, it was reported that U. S. shale drillers are reported to be drilling for the U. S. UU. no are making an investment to maintain production growth, despite high enough values. There are too many problems. The burden of new investments is very high, apart from the sweet spots already drilled. In addition, there is no guarantee that the value will remain high. available, if needed.
[c] Published data suggest that there is still a large amount of fossil fuels to be extracted, given the existing generation point. If we assume that generation will be increasing, it is simple that any limit on fossil fuels is many years in the future.
The way the economy works, the extraction limit has to do with affordability. If the extraction rate increases too much compared to what other people around the world have as disposable income, production will stop due to demand (in terms of what other people can afford). ) will fall too low. People will tend to reduce their discretionary spending, such as holiday travel and restaurant meals, thereby reducing the demand for fossil fuels.
[d] The operation of the “call” is not well understood. Very often, researchers and the general public assume that the demand for energy products will remain high.
A strangely giant component of demand is similar to the need for food, water, and basic facilities such as schools, roads, and buses. The deficient want those basic elements as much as the rich. There are literally billions of deficient people in the world. world. If the wages of the deficient fall too low compared to the wages of the rich, the formula cannot work. The deficient find that they have to spend almost their entire source of income on food, water and housing. As a result, they have little tax left to pay to critical government facilities. Without a good enough call from the poor, commodity costs tend to fall too low to inspire reinvestment.
Most fossil fuels are used through advertisements and advertising users. For example, herbal fuel is used in the manufacture of nitrogen fertilizers. If the value of herbal fuel is high, the value of fertilizers will accumulate more than farmers are willing to pay. of fertilizers. Farmers will decrease the use of fertilizers, which will decrease the yield of their crops. Farmers’ own prices will be lower, but there will be fewer desired crops, possibly indirectly increasing the total value of food. link that economic modelers integrate into their models.
The 2020 shutdowns show that governments can increase demand (and therefore prices) for energy products by sending checks to citizens. Now we see that the technique turns out to be generating inflation instead of higher energy production. In addition, countries that do not have blank energy resources may see their currencies fall against the US dollar.
[e] It is not true that types of power can easily be replaced by others.
In energy modeling, as in the calculation of “energy recovery over inverted energy,” a popular assumption is that any energy is replaceable by energy. This is not true unless a user takes into account all the main points of transition and energy. necessary to make that transition possible.
For example, intermittent electrical power, such as that produced through wind turbines or solar panels, is not replaceable by load-tracking electrical power. This intermittent electrical power cannot be obtained when other people want it. For example, the electrical energy generated by the wind can be low for more than a month at a time. In the case of solar energy, the challenge is to buy enough electrical energy during the summer months to use it in the winter. A naïve user might assume that adding a few hours of battery backup would solve the challenges of intermittency, but such a solution turns out to be very insufficient. Related: $280 Billion EU Support Program Could Worsen Energy Crisis
Due to intermittent problems, wind and solar power only replaces the fuels (coal, natural gas, uranium) that run our existing system. Publications report on intermittent electric power charging at “grid parity”, while its transient load turns out to correspond. to the electrical energy load of the grid, however, this corresponds to “apples and oranges”.
Another popular assumption is that electric power can upgrade liquid fuels. For example, in theory, each and every agricultural equipment can be redesigned and rebuilt to run on electric power, rather than diesel, which is usually used today. that it would take a large number of batteries built and eventually disposed of for this transition to work. There would also have to be factories to build all these new appliances. It would take a foreign trade formula that works extremely well to locate all the fabrics. Probably, there still wouldn’t be enough raw fabrics to make the formula work.
[f] There is much confusion about what is expected of oil and other powers, as an economy reaches its limits of power.
This factor is very similar to [4][d], as far as confusion about the functioning of energy demand is concerned. A common assumption among analysts is that oil costs will “of course” rise as the limits approach. This assumption is based on the popular source and call for the curve used by economists.
The challenge is that the availability of reasonable energy products greatly affects both demand and supply. Well-paying jobs can only be obtained if affordable energy products can make use of human labor. For example, today’s surgeons perform robotic surgeries that require, at a minimum, a solid source of electrical power for each operation. In addition, the apparatus used in surgery is created with fossil fuels. Surgeons also use anesthetic products that require fossil fuels. Without today’s complicated apparatus, surgeons wouldn’t be able to qualify as much as they do for their services.
Therefore, it is not transparent without delay whether the demand or source would tend to fall more quickly, if the energy source were to succeed at the limits. We know that Revelation 18:11-13 in the Bible provides a list of a number of commodities, adding humans sold as slaves, the costs of which fell very low at the time of the collapse of ancient Babylon. too low a source of energy products.
[5] The International Energy Agency and politicians around the world have a transition to using wind and sun to prevent the climate from being replaced for several years. This technique seemed to have the approval of those who were concerned about burning. too many fossil fuels causing climate replacement and those who were worried about fossil fuel shortages causing economic collapse.
Figure 6 illustrates a rough estimate of what the decline in energy sources looks like as part of the immediate shift to renewables proposed by politicians.
If a user understands the link between energy consumption and the economy, such an immediate decline in the energy source resembles anything that is likely related to an economic collapse. The purpose of politicians turns out to be to save citizens from how terrible the situation is The situation is to reframe the history of the declining energy source as anything politicians and economists have decided to do, to try to save the climate rather than reap the benefits of generations in the long run.
The rich and the tough can see this substitution as smart if they can take advantage of it. When there is not enough energy, the physics of the scenario tends to generate disparities in wages and wealth. Other wealthy people see this as a smart thing to do: they could take advantage of it personally. For example, Bill Gates has amassed about 270,000 acres of farmland in the United States, adding newly purchased farmland in North Dakota.
In addition, politicians see that they can have more control over populations if they can guide citizens in a way that consumes less energy. For example, bank accounts can connect to a certain type of social credit score. Politicians will know that this is for the smart of other people: to prevent the spread of disease or to prevent undesirables from using too many available resources.
One way to particularly decrease the inflow of force is to impose lockdowns in an area, ostensibly to prevent the spread of Covid-19, as China has done recently. Such preventive measures can be explained as mandatory to prevent the spread of the disease. These closures can also help mask other problems, such as a lack of fuel to force cuts.
[6] In fact, we are living in unusual times, with a primary power challenge hidden in sight.
Politicians cannot tell the world how bad the scenario of power is. The challenge of short-term power limits has been known since at least 1956 (M. King Hubbert) and 1957 (Hyman Rickover). The challenge was shown in the modeling done for the 1972 book, The Limits of Growth through Donella Meadows and others.
Most high-level politicians are aware of the energy supply factor, but they cannot communicate about it. Instead, they must communicate what would happen if the economy were allowed to be boosted without limits, and how severe the consequences can be. be alone.
The military around the world is undoubtedly well aware that there will not be enough energy source for everyone. This means that the world will be in a competition to determine who gets how much. In a war context, it is not surprising that communications are carefully controlled. The comments we expect to hear out loud and transparent are what governments and other influencers need citizens to hear.
By Gail Tverberg
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