Bolsonaro is as divided over him as the rest of Brazil
In an election seen in both respects as an existential struggle, the crusades have abandoned any semblance of civility in favor of incorrect information and demonization, literally. Bolsonaro and his camp have accused Lula of being a hidden, Satanist communist who needs to close churches and create unisex toilets in public schools. Meanwhile, one of Lula’s crusade announcements clung to an old boast — and an obvious joke — from Bolsonaro to recommend that he practice cannibalism. The left here presents Bolsonaro as a budding fascist dictator and describes his defeat. as for the long term of Brazilian democracy. (Each aspect denies the other’s claims as absurd. )
“This is the Americanization of Brazilian politics,” said Guilherme Casarões, a political analyst at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Sao Paulo. “One of the characteristics of this election is that Bolsonaro can. . . create a permanent state of culture war. “
That Brazil mirrors the United States is not surprising. Both are continent-sized New World countries facing unresolved issues about race and the legacy of slavery. They have cultural similarities, from rodeos to evangelical voting blocs. Bolsonaro has not tried to hide his vocal admiration for, and his alliance with, Trump.
The Observatory of Political and Electoral Violence recorded 212 politically motivated attacks, 21 murders, from July to September, 110% more than last quarter.
Fears of broader right-wing violence escalated last week when a former congressman who supported Bolsonaro fired a rifle and threw grenades at federal police, wounding two people, as they tried to detain him for violating space arrest.
Bolsonaro denounced the attack to police, but also condemned the opposite case against Roberto Jefferson, who was arrested in 2021 as part of a judicial crackdown on disinformation. The consensus among analysts here is that remote clashes may erupt on or after election day, and that large-scale violence remains possible.
Lula, who served as Brazil’s president from 2003 to 2010, won 48. 4 percent of the vote to Bolsonaro’s 43. 2 percent among an organization of 11 candidates in the first circular of the Oct. 2 election. .
Out and leading the polls, Lula comes on a full political comeback
Polarization may complicate the next administration’s government, regardless of which candidate wins, although it would probably be more complicated for Lula, given the bloc of radical Bolsonaristas in the Senate. Polls show the gap is widening: Lula’s voter rejection rate has risen from 16. 2 percent when he won the presidency in 2002 to 45 percent today, according to pollster Datafolha. His conservative opponent in 2002, José Serra, had a rejection rate of 14. 4%; Bolsonaro’s is 50 years old.
Polls that underestimated Bolsonaro in the first circular still show Lula leading in Sunday’s decisive circular. But its advantage has been greatly reduced.
During a debate last week, Bolsonaro published what critics called a racially motivated attack, claiming Lula’s recent visit to a predominantly black favela showed he had close ties to “drug traffickers. “proportionally more other people of color.
“Lula won in nine of the 10 states with the illiteracy rate,” Bolsonaro said on social media. “Do you know in which states? In our Northeast.
Lula lamented the tone of the cross week in an assembly with Catholic representatives.
“This country has been a satisfied country, which enjoyed to the fullest, enjoyed football, dance, carnival,” he said. “I had never noticed that Brazil seized as much hatred as a component of Brazilian society has today. “
Bolsonaro supporter shoots police, throws grenades ahead of election
On Oct. 16, a woman disrupted a devout service in the southeastern city of Jacareí as the pastor spoke about Marielle Franco, the black bisexual counselor from Rio de Janeiro he murdered in 2018. “You, sir, will not communicate about Marielle Franco inside the space. of God. [She] a leftist. . . a gay man who was looking for a gender ideology in children’s schools,” the woman said, according to Brazilian media outlet O Globo.
Two days earlier, the Rev. José Fernandes de Oliveira, here designated as a singer, had announced that he would leave social networks until after the elections. “They keep saying that I am a bad priest, communist and traitor to Christ because I teach Christian social doctrine,” Fernandes de Oliveira, who is passing for Father Zezinho, wrote on Facebook. “The unfortunate thing is that all the offenses come from radical Catholics who liked their political party to the Catholic catechism. “
Cibele Amaral, a 51-year-old evangelical Christian from Brasilia, said she left her church this month after her leader questioned her about Lula. “It came to me with a speech about Lula bringing communism,” Amaral said. For him it was absurd and. . . If she continued, I would never communicate with her again. “
Not all antagonisms come from the right. In an incident widely reported this week through Brazilian media, a video shared on social media appears to show a couple mocking a Sao Paulo restaurant while diners chanted they were “Bolsonaro’s henchmen. “friend to death this month after the victim called Lula’s electorate “thieves. “In other attacks, Bolsonaro supporters have been accused of killing Lula’s supporters.
Despite legal warnings and court rulings aimed at reducing fake news during elections, Brazil experienced an “explosion” of fake news before and after the first round of voting, according to the Rio-based Igarape Institute and its partners. The false or unsubstantiated claims, shared on social media, come with accusations linking Lula to organized crime and saying he is “in cahoots with the devil. “
Bolsonaro Lula: a referendum on young Brazilian democracy
For the first time in the campaign, the institute noted abundant production of left-wing disinformation, such as manipulated photographs of Bolsonaro’s scale in a Masonic lodge in 2014. The images showed posters of Bolsonaro and Masonic leaders, adding one of a pagan figure. related to Satanism.
An investigation into the success of those messages revealed that the far-right were the most voracious consumers. Far-right YouTube channels, for example, had 99 million views between Sept. 30 and Oct. 7, versus 28 million views for left-wing channels over the same period.
Division and misinformation were points in Bolsonaro’s rise to force in 2018. But they have worsened, observers say, as politics becomes more tribal. Now, with a growing pastime, Bolsonaro’s path to re-election goes through Lula, who arouses the same kind of contradiction among many members of the Brazilian right as Hillary Clinton among Republicans in the United States.
The air is filled with allegations of fraud from an excessive right that warns that it will see more than victory as a stolen election. From the morning of the first circular until the following afternoon, the Igarape report cited more than a million articles questioning electoral integrity. on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in Brazil.
After the first round, Bolsonaro supporters attacked voters who underestimated his final count. Bolsonaro’s allies in Congress are now pushing a law that would criminalize the publication of a ballot deemed erroneous beyond its margin of error.
The right’s most recent line of attack: unproven claims that Brazil’s radio stations violated Brazilian law by giving Lula more airtime than Bolsonaro — reasons, reported by some close to the president, for postponing Sunday’s vote. Bolsonaro was in a position this week to ask for a delay, G1 reported Wednesday, but relented after key military figures and politicians refused his plan.
However, leftist officials said they feared Bolsonaro would continue to try to leverage the claim, which was already being considered and rejected through the electoral government, to challenge a Lula victory.
“This turns out to be a hail Mary from Bolsonaro’s camp to sow confusion and disorder in the final days of the election,” said Robert Muggah, co-founder of the Igarape Institute.
Brazil’s electoral tribunal this month authorized its leader, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, to publish posts that violate disinformation rules. Bolsonaro’s supporters condemned the move as part of a crusade organized through a judicial crusade against prejudice against the president.
Bolsonaro has filled prosecutors and police with loyalists, calling the coronavirus a “little cold” and encouraging progress in the Amazon.
How did Bolsonaro win Time magazine’s Person of the Year readers’ poll? Thank you Telegram.
The right calls Lula a corrupt leftist; He served more than 19 months on corruption and money laundering charges that were later overturned. Supporters see his two terms as an era of social systems that have noticed famine rates falling dramatically.
If Bolsonaro wins, a weakened left may simply fight new measures to erode democratic principles and institutions. If defeated, Bolsonaro can retain significant influence within a central opposition, as Trump did in the United States.
If Bolsonaro loses, observers say, he could cast doubt on the results, creating an American-style situation in which some Brazilians cling to confidence that the new president is illegitimate. In the past, Bolsonaro falsely claimed that reliable electronic voting machines can be tampered with without problems.
“My feeling is that, if he loses, Bolsonaro is spreading the big lie, something similar to what Trump did,” Muggah said. “One can believe that it is an insurrectionary type event. “
Paulina Villegas contributed to this report.