It has been 8 months since Sweden and Finland declared their goal of joining NATO, a move that turned many countries’ non-alignment policies upside down following neighboring Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
While the organization’s top members need to accelerate the addition of new members, tensions and a new dispute between Sweden and Turkey threaten to lengthen this waiting period, indefinitely.
The existing 30 NATO states will have to approve a new member. And Turkey, a key geopolitical player and home to the alliance’s second-largest army, stands as the main vocal opponent of Nordic membership.
The reasons for Ankara’s opposition are complex, but they focus primarily on Sweden’s opposition to Kurdish equipment that Turkey considers terrorists, and the arms embargoes that Sweden and Finland, as well as other EU countries, impose on Turkey for targeting Kurdish militias in Syria.
Sweden and Finland are seeking to change course with Turkey, but the events of recent weeks have threatened to dash hopes for progress.
On Saturday, far-right protesters burned a Koran and chanted anti-Muslim slogans outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm, Sweden. Ankara immediately denounced the act, as well as Sweden granted permission to the right-wing organization to organize the demonstration. Turkey has also canceled an upcoming stop through Sweden’s defense leader to talk about NATO membership.
“We condemn in the strongest terms imaginable the despicable attack on our holy book. . . Allowing this anti-Islamic act, which targets Muslims and insults our sacred values, under the pretext of freedom of expression is totally unacceptable,” Turkey’s Foreign Ministry said. Ministry said.
The Koran was burned by Rasmus Paludan, who heads the Danish far-right political party Hard Line. The Swedish government said the protest was legal under the country’s free speech laws, but Swedish leaders condemned the act as “appalling. “
Protests by Turks in response to the firing position took up positions in front of the Swedish embassy in Ankara and its consulate in Istanbul over the weekend.
On a separate occasion earlier this month, Turkey summoned Sweden’s ambassador after a video released by a pro-Kurdish organization in Sweden showing an effigy of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hanging upside down from a rope.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson reportedly denounced the protest as an act of “sabotage” of the country’s bid for NATO membership.
“If it continues like this, Sweden’s accession to NATO will never be through Turkey,” Numan Kurtulmus, deputy chairman of Erdogan’s ruling AK Party, said Sunday.
Sweden, Finland and Turkey signed a tripartite agreement last year aimed at overcoming their opposition to NATO membership.
But Sweden’s Kristersson said earlier this month that Stockholm may simply not meet all of Turkey’s demands, adding the handover of Kurdish hounds living in Sweden, a request that was blocked by the country’s Supreme Court.
“Turkey confirms that we have done what we said we would do, but they also say they need things that we or we don’t need to give them,” Kristersson said at a Jan. 8 convention.
However, he said he was convinced Turkey would approve his country’s application to join NATO. Hungary, whose populist leader Viktor Orban is a friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is the only other country with Turkey that has not yet approved the offer.
Turkish analysts say Ankara’s latest statements have more to do with the country’s upcoming elections on May 14 and the influence of other NATO allies, namely the United States, than anything else.
The burning of the Koran and the Kurdish video of Erdogan’s effigy “manage to break the deadlock” between Turkey and Sweden, said George Dyson, a senior analyst at consultancy Control Risks.
“But,” he told CNBC, “the deadlock is already there. And it has little to do with Sweden and more to do with Turkey seeking to make the most of any influence it has over its allies. “
“It has more to do with U. S. -Turkish relations,” he added. “Turkey feels that the United States is an intelligent friend when it wants Turkey, but not when Turkey wants them. . . Or at least that’s the rhetoric. “
Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, believes Turkey is doing great damage to its Western alliances and that NATO could reach a decisive choice between Turkey and the Nordic states.
“Reach [the] point where NATO allies will have to be between Turkey and Finland/Sweden?I perceive Erdogan’s electoral calculus, but it will eventually damage long-term relations with key allies,” Ash said via Twitter.
Meanwhile, UK-based security and terrorism analyst Kyle Orton wrote in a blog post that “Turkey has taken [Sweden’s] NATO candidacy hostage because of demands related to the PKK [Kurdish militant group]. With the Koran burned in Stockholm yesterday,” he wrote: “Ankara is cynically seeking to increase tension with scandalous intervention in Sweden’s internal affairs. “
There is also the hypothesis that the U. S. It will use the promise of its F16 jets, an arms sale that Ankara has long sought, to force Turkey’s hand. Some members of Congress have expressed opposition to selling off Turkey’s position on new NATO candidates.
Turkish presidency spokesman Ibrahim Kalin recently said that Sweden has 8 to 10 weeks to make the adjustments Ankara demands, as Turkey’s parliament is likely to be suspended before elections in May. Sweden says it still wants six months to make those adjustments.
But whatever timetable Sweden follows, Turkey’s leaders will likely maintain a hard line until the election, knowing that anti-Western rhetoric and a strong nationalist stance tend to appeal well to voters.
“At the end of the day,” Dyson said, “I hesitate long before the elections in Turkey. “
Do you have a confidential news tip? We to hear from you.
Sign up for loose newsletters and get more CNBC in your inbox
Get this in your inbox and more information about our and services.
© 2023 CNBC LLC. All rights reserved. A department of NBCUniversal
Data is a real-time snapshot * Data is behind by at least 15 minutes. Global trade and monetary news, inventory quotes and market knowledge and analysis.
Data also by