The pandemic began in a Chinese city that most of us have never heard of: Wuhan. It might well have started in New York. As the outbreak began last February and caused blockades, the United States has the global epicenter of the new SARS coronavirus. In fact, all the Americas have been affected. The two largest countries in this hemisphere, Brazil and the United States, are the hardest hit with nearly 8 million cases in between. This is more than any in Asia, adding India and Russia.
Of the 10 countries that reported the number of cases, five are in the Americas, according to the Covid-19 map of Johns Hopkins University.
Major U.S. states see an increase in the infection curve. Perhaps our over-reliance on the number of cases that in hospitalizations is only making things worse. But for those in government who are encouraged by the positive effects of the SARS-CoV-2 test, even if the patient doesn’t want to be hospitalized, the peak in California, Texas and Florida is a headwind in each and every sense of the word: bad for markets, bad for business, bad for schools , bad for society.
California, Texas, and Florida are number 1, 2, and 3 in terms of population and 1, 2, and four in terms of GDP in the United States. “The fact that the virus is spreading in all those states is bad news for the economy and probably bad news for the market,” says Marco Odo, consumer portfolio manager at Swan Global Investments. “A double increase in infections can lead to a double drop in the market,” he says.
The U.S. economy remains dependent on politics. Public policies of ability to curb the expansion of Covid-19 cases, prosecutors to update lost earnings and profits for families and businesses, and accommodative financial policies that require the flow of credits.
Barclays said in a note to consumers Friday that its U.S. economic team expects a $1.5 trillion budget package to be approved until Friday.
Mexico recorded more than 9,000 daily cases of coronavirus for the first time this weekend. Mexico lifted the blockades imposed earlier this year, saturday reported 9,556 new instances, proving that the blockades are only flattening the curve, not pushing the coronavirus to decide on a new country to infect or die. Mexico also reported 784 more deaths, bringing its total to 47,472.
Peru, the country in the 10 most sensitive of coronaviruses, probably would not have counted 27253 deaths. An investigation through the Pan American Health Organization began last week, AP reported. If that’s the case, the new additions would almost double the number of deaths there.
Chile is the most sensible nation. It’s not a list I should be on. Its copper mining industry is affected by the fact that staff cannot access paints and demand is declining.
Now they are education dogs to “smell” the coronavirus. No, that’s not Trump’s advice. Germany does, too. Maybe it was Angela Merkel’s idea.
Unemployment in Chile reached 12.2%, which is low for the United States.
More than 27 million other people have lost their jobs in Latin America since the start of the pandemic. If those losses are not temporary, the economic recovery is likely to be slower.
Mexico has recorded a dramatic loss of 12 million tasks, while in Brazil, the destruction of tasks is more contained because the country has not made hard and immediate closures in the country. Neighboring Argentina recorded the greatest loss of formal tasks since 2002. They are now in default. Still.
As far as we know of the pandemic, about 18 million more people have the virus, with varying degrees of disease ranging from the absence of symptoms to a severe decrease in respiratory failure resulting in death.
At 18 million, the official number means that approximately 0.3% of the world’s population has received it. And with 679,000 deaths, about 0.009% of the world’s 7.8 billion people have died.
But they have all been financially affected. Some have made a lot of money. Some have lost their careers and businesses. More than 70 million other people have been fired in the Americas, at least.
Let’s take a look at some of the labor markets. I chose three. The (ish), the bad and the ugly.
Jobs in Brazil: bad
Brazil has shown a strong loss of task effect relative to the rest of Latin America.
Job losses reached 6.2 million in April and March, representing an annual drop of 5.5% in employment, the informal sector.
If only the formal sector, measured through the Ministry of Labour (CAGED), the fall has been 1.5 million since the start of the pandemic, a minimum of only 2.6% to 30 June.
The sectors most affected in Brazil were services, production and tourism, while the structure was not greatly affected. As a result, the unemployment rate rose from 11.6% in February to 12.9% in May, while the participation rate fell to 56.8% after 61.7%.
A forward-looking explanation for this relatively contained number is competitive tax support to keep others at work, and Bolsonaro’s administration for closures, even though the more economically important and larger states have ignored Bolsonaro’s opinion and are blocked anyway.
Politically, the Brazilian government has been strong in implementing tax breaks, cheap commercial loans, and money for Americans under the “coronavoucher” program.
In addition, the closure was first implemented in the states of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, while other regions implemented blockades at a later stage, especially in the capital, Brasilia.
Mexico Jobs: Worse
Mexico lost at least 12.2 million jobs at the end of May, 20.7% less than last year. Its labor force participation rate fell to 47.4% in May from 60.1% in February. Its unemployment rate is 4.2% benign because it does not measure other people who are not for paintings. Some staff members registered as underemployed, meaning their hours of painting have been reduced or have been forced to paint several part-time jobs to cover the loss of full-time employment.
Mexico’s economy is collapsing at 18.9%, but corporations are not firing other people at the same rate as the wonderful 2008-2009 currency crisis. By sector, the structure was the most affected, followed by production and services, according to knowledge collected through Barclays.
Mexico’s formal labor sector has been more affected than in Brazil, probably due to a lack of government that has led to redundancies. This can result in more permanent task losses there than in Brazil.
Jobs in Argentina: what a horror!
And then there’s Argentina. Formal employment figures gave the impression of being correct, falling by only 2.3% in March and April together, compared to 3% in Brazil and 3.3% in Mexico for the same period. Approximately 320,000 formal jobs were lost in the first month and part of the blockade, adding 220,000 in the personal sector, 95,000 self-employed workers and 18,000 domestic workers, while the government added 14,000 to the payroll.
The numbers appear to be weak, but the fall in employment in the personal sector in April is the biggest since the 2002 default. These figures do not come with occasional loss of tasks, which have been most affected through the closures.
Job losses will be partly met through the government’s stimulus programme, which includes the payment of supplementary wages and subsidized loans for businesses and self-employed persons. Argentina has also banned dismissals without just cause.
The private sector is up 8.8% from 0.8% in March, according to the Ministry of Labour, and 17% of companies reported postponing in May, up from 5% in March.
“We expect degrees of unemployment particularly this year,” Barclays economists wrote through Marco Oviedo in New York on a note Friday.
But wait, more!
Argentina extends blocking orders for two more weeks. Despite the blockages in force since March 20, the number of coronavirus cases continues to increase. Proof that you can run, but you can’t hide from the new SARS coronavirus.
“The big challenge we’ve had in the last 15 days is that we relaxed, felt it was contained… I ask you to please help us and sign us,” the country’s president, Alberto Fernandez, said at a press conference. Friday.
I spent 20 years as a journalist for the most productive in the industry, adding as a member of the Brazilian-based staff for WSJ. Since 2011, I have focused on business and made an investment in the