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by Simon Johnson
STOCKHOLM (Reuters) – The energy crisis, rising inflation and war in Ukraine could help Social Democratic Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson secure a new term if Swedes vote for a safe pair of hands in Sunday’s parliamentary elections.
The hard-fought election comes at a time when clouds are building over the Swedish economy. With energy prices soaring following Russia’s resolve to cut off Europe’s fuel supply, expansion is expected to slow next year with a genuine option of recession.
Inflation is emerging at a rate seen since the early 1990s and unemployment and interest rates are expected to rise. Housing costs have already begun to decline.
This gives the right-wing opposition a golden opportunity to return to strength after 8 years of social democratic governments.
But the fun of crisis control may simply be playing into the hands of Andersson, 55, finance minister from 2014 to 2021, who effectively led the economy during the pandemic and led Sweden’s bid to join the NATO military alliance as prime minister.
“She is the asset of the party,” said Nicholas Aylott, an associate professor of political science at Sodertorn University.
“The Swedish electorate, like the electorate, seems to unite around flagArray. . . times of uncertainty and crisis and this favours the Social Democrats. “
While polls show that the left and right blocs are head-to-head, the Social Democrats are the largest party and Andersson smoothly overtakes moderate leader Ulf Kristersson, who has the lead of other right-wing parties, in voter preferences.
A vote conducted via TV4 in Sweden on August 24 showed that 39% of respondents would prefer Andersson as prime minister compared to 23% who liked Kristersson, a former social security minister who has led his party since 2017.
REFERENDUM ON THE DEMOCRATS IN SWEDEN
Andersson’s enjoyment and popularity as the first female prime minister in a country that prides itself on equality may tip the scales in favor of the left, but there is one thing that could sway voters: the possibility that with a right-wing victory, far-right Sweden Democrats could win a role in government.
Kristersson’s moderates have governed a coalition with the Sweden Democrats, rooted in the white supremacist fringe whose mantra is that Sweden’s ills are due to decades of generous immigration policies.
However, after suffering two consecutive electoral defeats, the moderates, Christian Democrats and Liberals agreed to cooperate with the Swedish Democrats, who said they would appoint Kristersson as prime minister in exchange for stricter immigration and public order policies.
Kristersson’s resolve to court the right alienated his former Allies from the Centre Party and many voters.
“In a way, it’s a referendum on the Swedish Democrats,” said Peter Esaiasson, a professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg.
“There’s a selection you have to make in terms of what the maximum size is in politics, is it left-right or is it ethical size and fear of racism?”
Opinion polls show that moderates are losing to the Sweden Democrats for the position of the biggest moment after Andersson’s Social Democrats.
While few Akesson can become prime minister after Sept. 11, the option that he can exert influence on policymaking if the center-right wins a majority may discourage many insecure voters.
However, if he wins, Andersson likely won’t have the simple task of forming a new management or staying in power.
It took months to circumvent a new government after the last vote in 2018 and the vague center-left confederation in nothing more than a preference for excluding the Swedish Democrats from power.
Stefan Lofven, the former prime minister, and Andersson lost votes on the budget and were forced to resign, if only temporarily. The scenario may be only after Sunday’s vote.
Whichever bloc wins, it faces a number of challenges, overcoming internal disagreements over politics.
The social coverage formula has been forced during the pandemic and the transition to a greener economy will require massive investments in new technologies and skills, such as more blank energy and a transmission grid that can get it to where it is needed.
The war in Ukraine shows no signs of ending and Sweden’s request for the NATO club has been ratified by more than 20 members of the alliance, Turkey can still put a wrench in the works.
“After the next elections, a government capable of bringing together situations of social demand will be convened,” Swedbank said in its most recent economic outlook.
Few other people would bet on that.
(Reports via Simon Johnson; additional reporting via Ilze Filks; editing via Niklas Pollard and Raissa Kasolowsky)