For more than a week, tens of thousands of others demonstrated in Belarus over the disputed elections of 9 August, after which Alexander Lukashenko, the longest-served European leader, claimed a sixth term as president.Police and television presenters have gone on strike to join the protests and call on the president, who heads the former Soviet country of nine.5 million more people, to resign since 1ninenine4.
“Belarus has noticed such occasions since the collapse of the Soviet Union,” says Matthew Frear, a Belarusian expert at Leiden University in the Netherlands.
Clashes with police left at least two others dead, many injured and at least 6,700 in custody. Authorities introduced a severe crackdown on the capital Minsk, where police deployed stun grenades and rubber bullets and drove a van into the crowd, according to Amnesty International., detained protesters have been subjected to “widespread torture.”
Lukashenko, who fought for his political career like never before, tried to prove that he had not lost the country’s help, but was not very successful.When Lukashenko visited the Minsk wheel tractor factory on Monday and told the crowd, “You staff “have helped the president,” staff choreographed “Go!”
Later that day, on a scale in another factory, Lukashenko proposed replacing the constitution.”We will put the adjustments to a referendum and cede my constitutional powers.But not under tension or down the street, ” he said.The opposition says he’s made empty promises like this before.
On 10 August, official effects gave Lukashenko 80.1% of the vote; her main rival, Svetlana Tikhonovskaya, newly arrived in politics and a former teacher, won only 10.1%; rejected the result, insisting that it would have won aid ranging from 60%.70% if the votes had been counted.” It is difficult to say what the result would have been because the total procedure was manipulated: some of the votes cast for Lukashenko were manipulated,” Frear says.”But in some polling stations, where it was done more equitably, she was given up to 80% of the vote.The only way out is to call for new free and fair elections,” he adds.
Dubbed “The Last Dictatorship of Europe” by George W.In 2005, Lukashenko’s regime banned opinion polls, imprisoned opposition figures and held elections described as “seriously flawed” through the European Commission.”The last loose elections were held in 1994,” Frear says.
Three months before the nine August elections, the government imprisoned opposition rivals and prevented them from running, adding Tikhanovskaya’s husband, a YouTuber and opposition figure, Sergei Tikhanovsky, in late May.
Hours after denouncing the election, Tikhanosvkaya fled to neighboring Lithuania, where in the past he had evacuated his children before the election.In a YouTube video, he said he had taken “the very difficult resolution independently,” adding that “young people are the main things in life” and that political unrest doesn’t value anyone’s life.Since then, he has told protesters not to “stay away” and gather peacefully.”We have said that we deserve to protect our selection only through legal and non-violent actions means,” he said in another video on August 14.
Protests have erupted in Belarus since June amid anger over the imprisonment of opposition figures, economic stagnation and Lukashenko’s mismanagement of the coronavirus crisis, which he has called a “psychosis” that can be cured with vodka and a scale in the sauna despite recently contracting the disease itself…Since the election results, more than a dozen demonstrations have epped in cities due to disputed election results.Unofficial estimates of a demonstration in the capital on Sunday ranged from 100,000 to 220,000 others.people amassed last night in Minsk for the ninth consecutive night since Lukashenko declared victory.
Workers took to the streets with a series of lawsuits, ending police violence and new elections.
Videos and images shared on social media in recent days have shown staff of several state-owned enterprises quitting their jobs and telling their bosses that they will repaint as long as police avoid beating the protesters and the government releases the thousands of protesters arrested since the election.Police officers and Special Forces (Omon) members announced their resignations on social media.In a video, a security guard burns his uniform in a sign of defiance.
Several broadcasters and television presenters have also gone on strike, which is not easy because state media objectively monitors protests, said Katia Glod, an independent expert based in London in Belarus and former representative of the European Endowment for Democracy, a group of experts in Brussels.State media is a “complete propaganda,” Says Glod.” He described the protests as “riots.”
At least six presenters left the belarus-1 (BT) public broadcaster last week, adding Andrei Makayonak, host of Good Morning Belarus, which he resigned on 12 August.Daily Komsomolskaya Pravda in Belarus said: “Before, I remained neutral, because I was sure that when the stage is not very good, there will have to be a positive user who supports everyone with his smile.”He said that in the country’s current climate, his smile was “pretty blasphemous” and “no longer encouraged the public.”
On August 14, the sixth day in a row of protests, Lukashenko called on protesters from foreign-backed revolutionaries seeking to destabilize the country: “Don’t take to the streets.You must perceive that it is being used and that our Young People are being used as cannon fodder,” he said in a televised speech.
Since the elections, Belarusians say they have intermittently lost access to the Internet, social media and messaging apps, raising suspicions among protesters that the government is a generation to stifle dissent, yet Lukashenko denied that the government was concerned and claimed that the Internet was disconnected.”In the past, the government has blocked the sites of opposition candidates.But a complete internet shutdown has never happened before,” Frear says.
In the context of a deep recession and the coronavirus crisis, Lukashenko will have to borrow a lot of cash from foreign governments, Glod says.”His loss of legitimacy threatens his ability to get cash from Western establishments and that’s what bothers him.”she adds.
Belarus has long relied on Russian energy subsidies valued at billions of dollars each year for its largely state-controlled economy, but over the next year, the Kremlin has stepped up pressure on Belarus to settle for closer political and economic ties by increasing power costs and cutting subsidies.But Lukashenko has rejected many of Moscow’s proposals over the years for deeper integration, adding a single currency.
Besathed by the West, Lukashenko turns to his Russian neighbor for support.After a verbal telephone exchange with Vladmir Putin, Lukashenko said on August 15 that Putin had agreed to provide “comprehensive security assistance” in opposition to the protests.without giving details, but said that “with regard to the component of the army, we have an agreement with [Russia]”, referring to a treaty that countries signed in 1999 and that sought to create a “unified state”.”The treaty has never been fully implemented and in recent years relations between countries have deteriorated as Lukashenko has opposed Moscow’s calls to strengthen economic and political ties.
Lukashenko needs Putin to increase his number of insurrection cops, Glod says.”He’s involved in the lack of police,” he said. But there is no guarantee that Russia will supply such a police, says Array Frear.”Lukashenko would possibly be asustar.la opposition or force Russia to do so,” he says.
A Kremlin on 15 August did not mention the provision of security assistance, but expressed the certainty that all disorders would be resolved soon.
Elections and police brutality have resulted in widespread condemnation abroad.On August 18, President Trump said that “there does not seem to be too much democracy in Belarus” and that he would like to speak to Russia “at the right time” following Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on August 10 that the vote “is neither loose nor fair” and denounced “the continuation of violence against protesters and the detention of opposition supporters” , while the UK announced on 17 August that it did not accept “the” fraudulent “Belarusian presidential vote.
Following the emergency talks on 14 August, the European Union announced that it would impose sanctions against Belarusian officials guilty of brutal repression and electoral fraud.”What has happened in Belarus in recent days is absolutely unacceptable and requires a transparent EU response.”German Haiko Maas said at a press convention the same day.
EU The first sanctions were imposed on Belarus in 2004 and tightened in 2011 for human rights violations and voter fraud.Many sanctions, in addition to those targeting arms companies and bans, were lifted in 2016 after the EU cited progress in improving the rule of law.
The latest sanctions are unlikely to disappoint Lukashenko, according to analysts. “They are limited and specific. They could not possibly bring the country down,” Frear said.
“The EU is in a difficult position. You’ll have to respect your values so you don’t forget about fraud and post-election violence,” Glod says, “but you don’t have to push Lukashenko toward Russia.”
It seems that neither Lukashenko nor the protesters intend to back down, analysts say.”He’s a user who never commits. He sees it as a weakness,” Glod says.
At the same time, experts doubt that he can count on Russian intervention to suppress the protests.The Kremlin’s priority is to keep Belarusians on his side, Frear says, but “if he brazenly intervenes on Lukashenko’s behalf and gets bogged down in violent repression, he may lose the power of Belarusians.”
It would also be very expensive for Putin.” I would want enormous monetary resources for the collapse of Belarus’ economy.We also don’t know how this can be done at the national level,” Says Glod.Putin’s popularity has suffered much historic blow in recent months as a result of the economic consequences of the COVID-19 crisis, with ratings falling to 60% in July.
In the long run you will see “an even bloodier crackdown or a long war of attrition in which no aspect, the government or protesters, will withdraw,” Frear says, drawing parallels with ongoing protests in Hong Kong.
Protesters are waiting for elections. And if repression continues to fail and mass protests continue to wreak havoc, “Lukashenko is more likely to give in” to calls, Frear says.