Taiwan’s GDP in the current quarter will gain advantages from chip exports, but will face COVID headwinds: Reuters poll

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TAIPEI (Reuters) – Taiwan’s trade-dependent economy is expected to have grown thanks to strong global demand for PC chips, COVID-19 lockdowns in China’s main export market and a surge in domestic infections may weigh on demand, a Reuters showed the ballot.

Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 3. 1 percent in April-June from a year earlier, according to the survey of 24 economists, after emerging 3. 14 percent year-on-year in the first quarter.

Policymakers said they expected an expansion of less than 4% by 2022, pulling back from previous forecasts to more than 4% and slower than the 6. 45% recorded for 2021. This is the fastest rate in more than a decade since it rose to 10. 25% in 2010.

Economists’ forecasts for the initial GDP data expected on Friday vary widely, ranging from 1. 4% to 4. 4% growth.

“Investment is expected to be the main driving force of the expansion in the second quarter, thanks to continued significant capital spending among primary semiconductor companies,” DBS Bank analysts said.

Demand for Taiwanese products has been affected by COVID-19 lockdowns in China, while domestic intake has been affected by an increase in local cases, infections are now shrinking, and Taiwan has never been completely blocked.

As a key hub in the global generation chain for giants like Apple Inc, Taiwan’s economy has outpaced many of its regional peers.

Semiconductor shortages have inflated the order books of Taiwanese chipmakers, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC).

TSMC reported better-than-expected second-quarter results this month and said it is “very confident” in its long-term outlook.

The economy of China, Taiwan’s largest trading partner, grew modestly by 0. 4% in the current quarter, highlighting the colossal activity burden due to COVID-19 lockdowns.

Taiwan’s initial figures will be released with minimal comments. The revised figures will be released a few weeks later, with more main points and forecasts going forward.

(Survey collected through Arsh Mogre, Anant Chandak, Devayani Sathyan and Carol Lee; information through Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee; editing through Jacqueline Wong)

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