Narrator: During the COVID-19 crisis, you’ve probably heard a term many times: herd immunity.
This happens when the majority of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, reducing the population’s fitness history and options for virus transmission (and survival).
We did it with measles and mumps. And now we are figuring out how to do it with the novel coronavirus.
But one country is getting a lot of press for aiming to get herd immunity faster.
Anchor 1: Sweden has taken a more low-key approach to the pandemic.
Presenter 2: Some U. S. protesters used Sweden as an example.
Anchor point 3: Sweden prioritizes herd immunity.
Narrator: And some wonder why the United States follows suit.
There are two main ways of getting to herd immunity: through widespread vaccination or natural infection and recovery.
Herd immunity requires at least 60% to 70% of people to achieve immunity, though some believe a 90% rate is needed. The herd’s immunity will help protect those without immunity. An infected person would mostly come in contact with immune people, stopping more infections.
The United States has implemented containment measures to slow the spread while it waits for a vaccine. The challenge with this approach is that the progression of a vaccine takes a long time. Let’s be clear: 18 months is the shortest time to receive it. vaccinated.
Dr. Elliot Fisher: Dr. Fauci hopes that we can have one in 18 months, but I think that would be a miracle, because it would require any and all tests of this vaccine to go through well and have no protection issues and have enough immunity. this first vaccine that we are testing. I think it’s very unlikely.
Narrator: The COVID-19 virus is part of the same family of coronaviruses that caused the SARS outbreak in the early 2000s, so scientists are off to a good start.
But, even with initial studies conducted and trials ramped up, it takes time and exposure to judge whether a vaccine is effective and effective. Meanwhile, countries are forced to shut down and physically distance to slow the spread and avoid overloading fitness systems.
But the disorders are twofold. First, physical distancing isn’t as effective as experts would like, in part because other people want to be alert.
Fisher: This continues to build up in all parts of the country in case the number of cases continues to rise. It’s not a recipe that says, “Oh, we can and we’ll get back to work. “
Narrator: Second, the lockdown, the economy is faltering, unemployment is just under 15% and millions of Americans are out of work, protests have broken out, it is not easy to reopen the country, and even then, some parts of the Hospitals across the country are often closed. . filled with COVID-19 patients despite attempts to slow its spread.
Some cited the Swedish example of what has been done, i. e. , the second path to herd immunity: infection and herbal cure.
Lena Hallengren: We’re not shutting down schools for younger children or children’s care facilities and we have no regulation that forces citizens to remain in their homes.
Narrator: Sweden has used mandatory lockdowns.
The Swedish government did close some schools, and limited gatherings to less than 50, but bars, restaurants, and gyms remain open, though physical distancing is encouraged.
The goal is to allow life to go on as long as possible. The police are not enforcing any social distancing measures and the lockdowns imposed by the state have been minimal.
Johan Carlson: There is no clear correlation between the lockdown measures adopted in countries and the effect on the pandemic.
Narrator: This was said in mid-April, but now countries that have eased restrictions, such as South Korea and Germany, are seeing a rise in cases.
Critics say Sweden is trying to achieve herbal herd immunity, at the expense of its citizens. And while the Department of Health says it’s not official policy, it also says it works.
According to Sweden’s health ministry, over a quarter of Stockholm’s residents show antibodies for COVID-19. The ministry predicts herd immunity of 60% will be reached by mid-May.
However, this method could overwhelm the healthcare system, leading to many deaths, depending on how deadly the disease is.
And the numbers in Sweden paint a grim picture. A significant portion of the country’s deaths have been in nursing homes — a fact the government admitted was a failure in its strategy. And the death rate in Sweden is more than 22 deaths per 100,000 people, a number significantly higher than its neighbors and the US — even though it’s lower than other European countries like Spain and Italy.
Sweden’s policies may simply help its economy more quickly, even if, like the rest of the world, it is still suffering.
Martin Hession: For us personally we have laid off most of our employees, so it has been complicated in many ways.
Narrator: Natural immunity also requires infection and healing. But to get a safe figure, there will be no and. To succeed at the lowest level, 60% of Americans, or approximately two hundred million people, would have to be infected, and gain immunity.
But that means 1%, or just about 2 million people, would die. This is a 1% mortality rate.
Fisher: Trying to get everybody sick so that we achieve herd immunity. I think that’s called “nutty”.
Narrator: Beyond that, there is also enough data to know whether recovery from COVID-19 promises immunity against the virus.
When a person recovers from a disease, their body usually builds a natural immunity to fight future infection. But immunity from natural infection has several different factors, including the amount of antibodies produced, whether those antibodies can defend against a future infection, and if so, how long will they provide immunity for.
Lately, there are no studies that show any of these effects with COVID-19. We can take a look at other outbreaks in the coronavirus family circle and make educated guesses. But until then, those remain, at best, just educated guesses.
In the face of a pandemic, the paths to herd immunity are not easy. Both the American and Swedish styles are a matter of numbers. One may lead to more deaths, while the other may have astronomical economic consequences. And there is no universal way.
Even comparing US cities doesn’t quite work. New York City is the global hotspot. Los Angeles, often compared to New York, suffered relatively few deaths. But LA is a city that sprawls, spreading its population out, while New York is dense, causing less room for physical distancing.
Dr. Fauci said a second wave is inevitable. And as parts of the country reopen, the question is what can be replaced to flatten that curve of moments. The best thing we can do is to be informed of our mistakes further for when they occur. Take Sweden, for example. Although the number of deaths per 100,000 inhabitants is higher than that of its neighbours, more than 87% of those deaths occur among people over 70 years of age, an organisation known to be particularly vulnerable. If this happens, Sweden will have to better protect this population.
And in the United States we will have to know the unknowns. Who has had it and recovered? Are they immune now? For how long? Can those who have recovered from COVID-19 return to work, while those who are unprotected remain isolated?
During the first wave, more than 80,000 people died in the United States as of May 11. Americans can find a way to do better, because what is at stake is the other people around us.
EDITOR’S NOTE: This video was originally published in May 2020.
Narrator: During the COVID-19 crisis, you’ve probably heard one term over and over again: herd immunity.
This happens when the majority of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, reducing the population’s fitness history and options for virus transmission (and survival).
We did it with measles and mumps. And now we are figuring out how to do it with the novel coronavirus.
But one country is getting a lot of press for aiming to get herd immunity faster.
Anchor point 1: Sweden has taken a more low-key approach to the pandemic.
Anchor 2: Some US protesters have adopted Sweden as an example.
Anchor point 3: Sweden prioritizes herd immunity.
Narrator: And some people are asking why isn’t the US following suit.
There are two main ways of getting to herd immunity: through widespread vaccination or natural infection and recovery.
Herd immunity requires at least 60% to 70% of people to achieve immunity, although a 90% rate is necessary. Herd immunity will help protect those who are not. An inflamed user would basically come into contact with other people who are immune, thus preventing further infections.
The United States has implemented containment measures to slow the spread while it waits for a vaccine. The challenge with this approach is that achieving a vaccine takes a long time. Let’s be clear: 18 months is the shortest vaccination period it can be.
Dr. Elliot Fisher: Dr. Fauci hopes that we can have one in 18 months, but I think that would be a miracle, because it would require that each and every test of this vaccine pass well and have no protection problems and have enough immunity. this first vaccine that we are checking. I think it is very unlikely.
Narrator: The COVID-19 virus is part of the same family of coronaviruses that caused the SARS outbreak in the early 2000s, so scientists are off to a good start.
But, even with the groundwork research done and fast-tracking of any trials, it takes time and exposure to judge whether a vaccine is safe and effective. In the meantime, countries are forced to lock down and physically distance in order to slow the spread and avoid overwhelming the healthcare systems.
But the problems are twofold. First, physical distancing isn’t as effective as experts would like — in part because people have to be vigilant.
Fisher: It continues to accumulate in all regions of the country in case the number of cases continues to increase. It’s not a recipe that says, “Oh, we can and let’s get back to work. “
Narrator: Second, while the lockdown is happening, the economy is faltering, unemployment sits just below 15% with millions of American out of a job, protests have sparked demanding the country reopen, and even still, certain parts of the country’s hospitals are mostly filled with COVID-19 patients despite attempts to slow its spread.
Some cited the Swedish example of what has been done, that is, the second path to herd immunity: infection and herbal cure.
Lena Hallengren: We are not definitive youth schools or daycares and we do not have regulations that force citizens to stay at home.
Narrator: Sweden has used mandatory lockdown.
The Swedish government closed some schools and limited gatherings to fewer than 50 people, but bars, restaurants and gyms remain open and physical distancing is recommended.
The goal is to allow life to continue as normally as possible. There is no enforcement of social distancing by the police, and state-mandated closures have been minimal.
Johan Carlson: There is no clear correlation between the containment measures adopted in the countries and the effect on the pandemic.
Narrator: This was said in mid-April, but now countries that have eased restrictions, such as South Korea and Germany, are seeing a rise in cases.
Critics say Sweden is trying to achieve herd immunity through a herbal route, at the expense of its citizens. And although the Ministry of Health claims that it is not an official policy, it also claims that it works.
According to the Swedish Ministry of Health, more than a quarter of Stockholm’s citizens have antibodies against COVID-19. The ministry projects that 60% herd immunity will be reached by mid-May.
However, this method could overwhelm the healthcare system, leading to many deaths, depending on how deadly the disease is.
And the numbers in Sweden paint a grim picture. A significant portion of the country’s deaths have been in nursing homes — a fact the government admitted was a failure in its strategy. And the death rate in Sweden is more than 22 deaths per 100,000 people, a number significantly higher than its neighbors and the US — even though it’s lower than other European countries like Spain and Italy.
Sweden’s policies may simply help its economy more quickly, even if, like the rest of the world, it is still suffering.
Martin Hession: For us personally, we’ve let go the majority of our staff, so it’s been difficult in many respects
Narrator: Natural immunity also requires infection and recovery. But, for a certain number there will be no recovery. To reach the low end, 60% of Americans, or almost 200 million people, would have to be infected, recover, and gain immunity.
But, this means 1%, or nearly 2 million people, would die. This using a 1% mortality rate.
Fisher: Trying to get everyone unhealthy to achieve herd immunity. I think it’s called “hazelnut. “
Narrator: Beyond that, there’s also enough data to know if recovery from COVID-19 promises immunity against the virus.
When a user recovers from an illness, their body develops natural immunity to fight a long-term infection. But immunity to natural infection depends on several other factors, in addition to the amount of antibodies produced, the ability of those antibodies to protect against prolonged infection. run the infection and, if so, how long they will provide immunity.
Lately there are no studies that demonstrate any of these effects with COVID-19. We can look at other outbreaks in the coronavirus family circle and make educated guesses. But until then, those remain educated guesses at best.
In the face of a pandemic, the path to herd immunity is easy. Both the American and Swedish tactics are all about numbers. One can lead to more deaths, while the other can have astronomical economic consequences. And there’s no one. . . One size fits all.
Even comparing US cities doesn’t quite work. New York City is the global hotspot. Los Angeles, often compared to New York, suffered relatively few deaths. But LA is a city that sprawls, spreading its population out, while New York is dense, causing less room for physical distancing.
Dr. Fauci said a second wave is inevitable. And as parts of the country reopen, the question is what can change to flatten that second curve. The best we can do is learn from our past mistakes for when it comes. Take Sweden. While its deaths per 100,000 is higher than its neighbors, more than 87% of those deaths are over the age of 70, a group known to be especially vulnerable. If a second wave comes, Sweden needs to better protect that population.
And in the United States we will have to know the unknowns. Who has had it and recovered? Are they immune now? For how long? Can those who have recovered from COVID-19 return to work, while those who are unprotected remain isolated?
During the first wave, more than 80,000 people died in the United States as of May 11. Americans can find a way to do better, because what is at stake is the other people around us.
EDITOR’S NOTE: This video was originally published in May 2020.
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