(Bloomberg) — After adopting arguably the world’s softest country to deal with the coronavirus pandemic, Sweden is tightening the screws.
From Sunday, Prime Minister Stefan Lofven’s government can impose fines and shut down businesses that don’t meet limitations such as the guest limit, as well as limit personal gatherings, under a new law that will be in place until September. relying mainly on recommendations and trusting that other people will follow them. As the fitness formula comes under increasing pressure and deaths rise, some say too little, too late.
“Like many places Sweden has learned about the virus the hard way,” said William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s School of Public Health in Boston, who has followed the country’s strategy closely. “Sweden was too slow. There was ample evidence from the spring, in Sweden and elsewhere, of what could be expected in the autumn and winter if the policy was not changed and these are the consequences.”
While continuing with its strategy, Sweden has questioned lockdown decisions made in other countries. Its path to mandatory restrictions has left the Nordic country with more than three times as many virus deaths in capita terms as Denmark, the closest regional country in terms of deaths. The government has decayed and is upset that senior officials (and Lofven himself) break their own rules. Even King Carl XVI Gustaf called the national reaction a failure.
As in the rest of the world, the debate in the pandemic era has focused on the desire to strike a balance between the fitness of populations and the consequences of shutting down economies. Sweden’s economy has held up better than most, and the death toll now stands at more than 9,600.
Top epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, who in June labeled countries that opted for strict lockdowns as “mad,” said the pandemic law shouldn’t be seen as a U-turn, but rather an extension of what’s already been done.
“We continue to work basically with voluntary measures for individuals,” he said in an interview. “And we’re basically working with regulating other types of agencies, other types of retail establishments that need regulations so that they can meet their obligations. “”.
One of Tegnell’s main detractors, Professor Bjorn Olsen of Uppsala University, said “reality has caught up with the Public Health Agency.”
“They’ve been incredibly stubborn in sticking to their strategy without listening or doing any kind of outside analysis,” he said.
Anders Litzen lost his 71-year-old mother Agnetha in the spring, sitting next to him for the past 16 hours in full protective gear. The 42-year-old, who lost his job due to the pandemic and started running as a runner in a hospital, said the government’s communication was too vague.
“My mother, and I think most Swedes, didn’t take it seriously,” Litzen said. “I can’t say that what Sweden has done is right or wrong, but from a private point of view, I think when it takes to send a message, it has to be loud and clear. “
Lofven and health officials, facing early complaints from President Donald Trump, declared in April that the country had failed its elderly in nursing homes. A government-appointed commission recently reached a similar conclusion.
Sweden has made “good decisions” in moving toward stricter measures, Mike Ryan, head of the World Health Organization’s emergency program, said on Monday.
“This is an example of how complicated it is to maintain public health and social measures that are only taken through the will or determination of the individual to put those measures in place,” Ryan said. “It tells us that at the beginning of 2021, how challenging and challenging this environment is. “
Health Versus Economy
The Nordic region’s largest economy has weathered the crisis better than most Western countries, and its factories were less affected by disruptions in late 2020.
The differences in containment between the Nordic and Baltic countries have been offset by their shared dependence on the productive sector, so they have benefited from a recovery in global trade, according to Robert Bergqvist, lead economist at SEB AB. When we look back at 2020, the industry has helped us weather some of the slowdowns seen in many other countries. “
Low debt levels have also allowed Sweden to release fiscal stimulus, supported by the Riksbank’s asset purchase program. Although the pandemic law may require more stimulus, “from an external perspective, Sweden will continue to have very strong core finances,” Danske said in its Nordic Outlook last week.
Leadership vacuum
Prime Minister Lofven has observed that voters’ acceptance of the truth is eroding as complaints about the government’s reaction mount. It didn’t help that he was spotted among Christmas shoppers at a grocery shopping mall, that his Finance Minister was caught renting skis in a hotel, and the head of the coronavirus reaction team went on Christmas vacation to the Canary Islands, which didn’t help, against official directives. And the opposition is not raising its fists.
“The transmission of the infection will be stopped by a serious tone at a press conference,” top opposition leader Ulf Kristersson told a national security convention on Monday, criticizing the government for “a lack of leadership, poor agreements and an unclear security department. “responsibility. “
Support for the prime minister fell 7 points, to 31% of Swedish voters, according to an online vote via Demoskop published last week. This is the biggest monthly drop in Lofven’s popularity since the start of the pandemic. There is no imminent risk to their task given the political system.
The recent backlash has been “a partial U-turn” that hasn’t addressed what was needed, such as mask mandates and the completion of more schools, Uppsala University’s Olsen said. Elementary schools remain open.
“We’re very busy vaccinating now, but a lot of efforts are being made to engage transmission so it doesn’t spread,” Olsen said. “These are constantly lukewarm and half-hearted efforts. What many other countries would have done in such a scenario would have been to close their doors completely. “
Sweden had inoculated at least 80,000 people by Jan. 10, or 0.8% of its population, health authorities said Tuesday. That’s below Denmark’s 2% tally, based on the Bloomberg Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker.
“At this level of the crisis, I think it’s going to be less of a containment strategy and more of a vaccination strategy,” SEB’s Bergqvist said.
Litzen, who to help fight the pandemic after killing his mother, believes tighter restrictions deserve to have replaced voluntary recommendations sooner. “When it comes to advised regulations, it’s very naïve to think that an entire country can enforce them unless they comply with them. it’s some kind of law. “