PHOENIX – Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump in Arizona to a critical point of 50% less than a week before the ballots are issued, according to a new poll.
The same state ballot found that Democrat Mark Kelly had a dominant advantage over Senator Martha McSally, republican for Arizona, suggesting that state Democrats can sweep the first two elections for the first time since 1944.
Suffolk University/USA TODAY Network’s vote of 500 electorates probably on the battlefield state showed Biden a 4 percentage point lead over Trump, from 50% to 46%.
Kelly took McSally through nine points, 4nine% to 40%.
Biden’s advantage is similar to the 10 polls conducted through others in Arizona in September, Biden led in 8 of the polls, Trump led in one and tied, according to Real Clear Politics.
Kelly led the 8 polls conducted in September, with higher margins of one digit, the online page reports.
Suffolk’s survey, conducted between Saturday and Wednesday, has a margin of error of 4. 4 points. Suffolk has a rating of “A” on the FiveThirtyEight website.
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David Paleologos, director of the Center for Political Research at Suffolk University in Boston, said Biden’s approval by Cindy McCain took a position right at the start of the vote and can be significant.
“Their help is really vital from a demographic point of view, which many other people don’t accept,” he said, noting that their help probably has the maximum effect on whites and moderates.
And Biden reached the mark of 50% behind in the race and with only 2% of undecided respondents, he said.
“This is a threshold to reach,” Paleologos said.
In addition to candidates’ preferences, the ballot showed other symptoms of concern about the president’s chances in the state, as voting in Arizona is about to begin.
Most Arizonans, 56 percent, say the country is on track and 53 percent say they have an unfavorable view of Trump, while the same proportion say they sometimes like Biden.
More than half, 51%, Trump’s handling of the “mediocre” pandemic.
The same proportion said he would prefer Trump not to fill the void in the Supreme Court before his term expires, the factor does not seem to have a significant effect on voter opinion, about 43% said he deserves to hold the seat open through death. Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
About 16% said Trump’s efforts to temporarily take the seat made them more likely to vote for him and 17 percent said they were less likely to. Most, 65%, said there was no difference.
The vote of people who called live ended most often before the first presidential debate, an occasion that is considered a bad night for Trump’s prospects.
Next week, Trump was scheduled to return to Arizona, visiting Tucson and Flagstaff on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. However, Trump announced Friday morning via Twitter that he and first girl Melania Trump had tested positive for COVID-19 and “we will do it without delay. “start our quarantine and recovery process. “
On Thursday, Biden and her co-en mate, Senator Kamala Harris of California, plan to travel to Arizona.
The survey found that 18% of respondents said that the most important thing facing the winner of the election is task expansion management and the economy, and another 15% said they treated the coronavirus pandemic.
But the biggest concern, 19%, is to bring the country closer.
Trump is lagging behind in Arizona’s electorate despite an economic record that would generally recommend higher approval rates.
Nearly 80% of respondents described Arizona’s economic situation as fair and excellent Less than one in five said situations were bad when asked if they were better off than they were 4 years ago, 45% said yes and at least 23% said they were worse off.
That’s where pollsters say Trump’s non-public taste comes into the equation.
Grady Bowman, 76, retired from Tucson, an independent who supports Biden and Kelly, sees Trump as self-centered and hostile to immigrants, positions he cannot overcome.
“I don’t like the way taxes are reduced,” Bowman said. “I’m not anti-immigration. I’m married to a girl from Mexico and I have a daughter of Oman who is a Muslim. “
Gilbert’s 53-year-old Republican Lloyd Knox sees Trump as the one who carries the right to establishments that have stagnated for too long.
“I think America deserves to be run as a business and not as a policy as ever,” Knox said. “He did a lot of things in no time there. And if I had a Congress looking to paint with him, how much more would we have done?”
Marlene Kenner, an 86-year-old republican retiree in Sun City, also believes Trump is keeping his promises, especially on immigration, which solves his main problem and is dismayed by Biden’s unconditionality of others.
“Try to look and act like an adorable grandfather. That’s completely false. It’s so unbalanced,” he said. People think it’s so glorious. He is rarely the glorious user he claims to be. He hasn’t done anything for years. “
Stephanie Waddell, 26, a Mesa resident and fitness worker, is a Democrat who, as a supporter of Senator Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. , prefers more liberal applicants in the primaries. Although she is delighted with Biden or Kelly, she will gladly put them back on the GOP list.
“I myself am a little more progressive than any of their positions,” Waddell said in an interview with The Arizona Republic after the vote. “But I think there is a lot at stake in this election, adding up our voting rights. As a woman, many rights, such as my right to birth control and my right to make possible choices about my own body, are valid. The line “.
Bowman for Kelly is basically due to his opposition to McSally.
“My son, an A-10 pilot, just like her. He served under the squadron here at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base,” Bowman said. “I learned to know a little more about her by listening to the pilots who worked under it. She seemed to them a user who was necessarily involved with her own well-being. “
Kenner defended McSally.
“I am proud of your experience. I think he has a smart lawmaker,” she said.
The ballot included almost even a combination of other people known as Democratic, Republican or independent voters. Republicans had a 2 percentage point mark in the August state primaries, and the Republican Party has continued to outperd Democrats in recent weeks.
Of the respondents, about 22% knew themselves as liberal or very liberal, and about 37% were conservative or very conservative.
Respondents voted Trump in 2016 by 1 point, Trump won with the entire Arizona electorate by 3. 5 points.
Contact journalist Ronald J. Hansen at ronald. hansen@arizonarepublic. com or 602-444-4493. Follow him on Twitter @ronaldjhansen.
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