In a recent post on Research Square’s preprint server*, researchers from Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, Pfizer Inc, and the University of Iowa assessed seasonal trends in 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19) cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
In winter, various respiratory viruses cause waves of diseases that adhere to seasonal patterns. In addition to increased indoor activity and seasonal climate diversifications known for viral stability outside the host, those trends are likely the result of a confluence of hosts, pathogens, and environmental factors. Therefore, additional studies are needed to determine whether severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is recent or will eventually adhere to seasonal patterns similar to those other respiratory viruses.
In the existing study, researchers assessed seasonal patterns seen in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in time series models from the United States and Europe.
The ecological study carried out according to STROBE (Strengthing the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) standards. The GitHub Our World in Data (OWID) repository was used to download the daily rates of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths observed according to millions of inhabitants per country for the United States, the United Kingdom and all member countries of the European Union. Data used for the exam were recorded between 1 March 2020 and 31 July 2022, depending on country availability.
The team broke down country-specific daily time-series rates for individual COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the style of a Prophet time series. In addition, the style of the time series was adjusted for the national rigor index.
The effects of the study showed that the style demonstrated transparent and consistent annual seasonality for all SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospitalizations, and death rates recorded between November and April 2021. The additional effect of the annual seasonal component on cases was greatest between January and March 2021, with a peak rate of the additional seasonal rate of 905 observed instances corresponding to one million people.
With up to one hundred additional seasonal hospitalizations consistent with one million observed between November and April, the annual seasonal component of hospitalizations demonstrated a transparent difference between seasons. With two additional deaths consisting of one million inhabitants due to the annual seasonal effect, which is basically concentrated from November to February, COVID-19-related mortality showed a similar trend in the annual seasonal component. All countries evaluated show similar patterns. The annual seasonality of prepandemic influenza that was consistently observed between December and April during twelve influenza seasons in the United States also demonstrated through the exact style specifications described for COVID-19 rates.
The effects of the study showed that, despite continued transmission of COVID-19 during the year, the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths was highest during the winter viral respiration season in the United States and Europe. Therefore, the researchers recommend the employment of annual preventive measures against SARS-CoV-2, such as the administration of seasonal booster vaccines or other non-pharmaceutical interventions to the general public within a time frame similar to those used for influenza prevention to curb the transmission of COVID-19.
Research Square publishes initial clinical reports that are not peer-reviewed and therefore are not considered conclusive clinical practices/health behaviors or treated as established information.
Written By
Bhavana Kunkalikar is a physician founded in Goa, India. His college education is in pharmaceutical sciences and he has a bachelor’s degree in pharmacy. His school education allowed her to broaden his interest in anatomical and physiological sciences. Manifestations and Reasons for Mobile Sickle Cell Anemia” was the springboard to a lifelong fascination with human pathophysiology.
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