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The public’s panic over flu vaccine protection highlights the prospects facing a COVID-19 vaccine.
Already facing issues of safety, efficacy and cost, a vaccine against COVID-19 is approaching. In fact, it’s probably more accurate to say that there will be vaccines available, all of other types and efficacy. Compounding the difficulties of ending the pandemic, recent occasions in South Korea offer a grim view of some of the demanding situations that vaccine distribution is likely to entail. Let’s start by recapping those occasions, centered around a national flu vaccination campaign.
Why Have a Flu Vaccine Drive During a Pandemic?
Beginning in early September, the South Korean government began an aggressive flu vaccination campaign, with the goal of inoculating as much of its population as possible in preparation for winter. A special fund was enacted to provide free inoculations for the most vulnerable segments of the population, namely: children, pregnant women, and seniors. By October 27, a little over 10 million of South Korea’s 51 million people had received a free vaccination, with the intended target being 19 million.
There are many smart reasons to get a subsidized flu shot. The flu alone is already one of the leading causes of death among older people and is responsible for about 20,000 deaths a year in South Korea. In other people over the age of 70, flu-caused headaches (of which pneumonia is the most common) are responsible for about 9% of all deaths. It has long been known that children are vital reservoirs of viral transmission, which is why vaccination not only targets them, but also opens an indirect pathway for transmission of the virus. old man.
Much of South Korea’s flu vaccination calculations were, of course, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the symptoms of COVID-19 are remarkably similar to those of the flu, it is vital not to confuse them with a primary outbreak. Unlike most other countries today, the COVID-19 situation in South Korea remains incredibly stable, averaging just 73 new cases per day over the past four weeks. Fortunately, checking the capacity is also still sufficient. Despite the calm, a giant regional outbreak like the one centered in the city of Daegu in March still has the potential to test a city or province’s ability to temporarily control thousands of people. In such scenarios, it is vital to use symptoms of illness, such as fever and cough, as secondary evidence to make a decision about quarantine and treatment. If many other people have the flu, the likelihood of experiencing symptoms decreases significantly, which can lead to other people with the flu being treated as coronavirus patients, inadvertently diverting critical resources.
Recent studies suggest that flu vaccines may improve immune formula and confer some marginal coverage against COVID-19 in the first few weeks or months after inoculation. The studies are by no means decisive, but even the option of minor innovations is worth it. seriously considering the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine. This idea turns out to have had a positive effect on the South Korean government’s decision to launch a flu control campaign. As with the flu, children have been known as a key reservoir. of COVID-19 transmission, adding up through asymptomatic cases, which likely motivated the decision to subsidize vaccines for both children and seniors.
Accounting for Flu Vaccine-Related Deaths in South Korea
While there are moderate reasons to launch the flu campaign, a number of deaths were reported soon after vaccination. As of October 29, a total of 72 deaths have been reported, many of which occurred within 48 hours or a week of inoculation. These reports filled many with concern and ended public participation in the campaign.
While some public fear is understandable, the truth is that misconceptions are dispelled through facts.
Fact #1: Flu vaccines are extremely common, have been in use for decades, and have shown no evidence whatsoever of increasing the odds of death. In fact, study after study has consistently shown inoculations actually decrease death, especially in seniors, by protecting them against complications like pneumonia. To fully emphasize just how conclusive this body of work is, let me describe the sheer numbers we are talking about: In the United States alone, 160 million flu vaccine doses are administered annually while, globally, around 15 billion have been administered in the last decade. Virtually all of these vaccines are made in the same way (through chicken eggs) so any miniscule relationship between inoculation and premature death would surely have been noticed.
Fact #2: Due to the huge number of populations involved, scientists have very accurate statistics on the side effects of vaccines. Fever, for example, is a common side effect in about 10 percent of all cases, a natural reaction of the immune formula to a foreign invader, a reaction that the vaccine tries to mimic. The most serious side effects related to flu vaccines are anaphylaxis and Guillain-Barré syndrome. The first, which occurs about once every million vaccinations, is usually due to a severe and life-threatening allergic reaction, due to bird egg residues in the vaccine. The latter, which occurs about once or twice in a million vaccinations, is a unique and serious disease in which the immune formula mistakenly attacks nerve cells. It is unknown why this happens, but death occurs in only 4-7% of those patients, provided prompt treatment is administered. The recent report on spinal inflammation in AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine trial seems most likely related to Guillain-Barré.
Fact 3: In fact, it’s conceivable that the body’s natural reaction to a flu shot could push a very weak or unhealthy user to the limit. There is no complicated way to say it, however, some seniors are already very close to death. , no matter how satisfied or healthy they may seem in the face of this unfortunate fact. Of the 72 vaccine-related deaths in South Korea, 10 of them occurred in seniors aged 70 and older. Of the 20 autopsies performed so far, at least thirteen have revealed pre-existing conditions, such as cardiovascular disease, potentially putting them at higher risk for sudden death, even as a result of a minor stressful event. It is because of this explanation that critically ill or hospitalized patients are sometimes not vaccinated. and older adults are still asked to report their pre-existing conditions prior to inoculation.
Fact #4: The probability that other people will die shortly after receiving the flu vaccine is no greater than the probability that other people will die without getting vaccinated. I’m probably not excited to say this, but the numbers are vital to putting flu vaccine deaths into perspective. Seventy-two may seem like a high number in a headline, but it is not when you consider the broader mortality trends that are constantly observed. In South Korea, an average of 200,000 people over the age of 70 and 40,000 people over the age of 60 to 69 die each year. Given that the country has about five million people over 70 years old and 6 million people over 60 to 69 years old, this means that on average 4 percent in the first age and 0. 7 percent currently die in one or two years. Since September, about 70% of all eligible South Koreans over 70 years old (a total of four million) and 20% of those between 60 and 69 years old (five million) have received the flu vaccine. If those figures are used to extrapolate the chances of someone dying within a week of inoculation, we see that the estimated price is in the hundreds, indicating that the 72 deaths we have observed so far are easily explained by general patterns specific age groups. death.
Fact #5: Scientists have long been keeping track of the number of people who die within a week after receiving a flu vaccination. In 2013, for example, a U.S. study found that 0.011 percent and 0.023 percent of all recipients aged 65-74 and over 74 died, respectively. In 2019, the South Korean government reported that 0.023 percent of those over 65 died. The latter number would, therefore, predict about 900 of the 4 million vaccine recipients over 70 to die within a week after inoculation. Luckily, we are a full order of magnitude below this, again suggesting the deaths are, for lack of better phrasing, following predictable trends of normal death.
Implications for COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution
In recent years, vaccines have come under unfortunate public scrutiny. Anti-vaxxers in the U. S. and Europe have become louder and more widespread even though vaccine studies have been conducted in one form or another for more than two years. One hundred years, making it one of the most reliable and consistent medical devices ever invented. Since Edward Jenner used cowpox pus in 1797 to confer immunity to smallpox, 14 diseases that once devastated the human race have been eliminated or controlled as much as possible entirely. It’s true that vaccines don’t work for all diseases and take some time to develop, test, and distribute, but they’re also incredibly safe and have strict protective standards governing their use. Throughout their history, vaccines have rarely been taken off the market, and even when they have, they have sometimes been taken off the market due to suboptimal efficacy or a production error, not because they caused sudden, unforeseen deaths.
As a country with high respect for science and wide acceptance in government institutions, the willingness of the South Korean public to adopt COVID-19 mitigation measures at the beginning of the pandemic is a testament to its ability to channel clinical recommendations. Recent occasions, however, seem to have shaken that confidence, blurring the lines for the once-10- to 30-minute flu shot. While the vast majority of experts consistently claim that the benefits of vaccination far outweigh the risks, the Interestingly, South Korean media has followed a more critical tone, perhaps inadvertently, instilling unnecessary doubt and suspicion.
It remains to be seen whether South Koreans will regain confidence and resume vaccination, but this episode deserves to serve as a vital warning for the long-term distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, whether in South Korea or other countries. As with the flu campaign in South Korea, many people, especially the elderly, will die within a week of receiving the COVID-19 vaccine, even if there is no causal link at play. Unfortunately, this proximity will most likely be misunderstood. , which fuels considerations about the type of vaccines, even if the cause of death turns out to be entirely independent. As has been the case with virus mitigation, the South Korean experience underscores the critical importance of having consistent public messaging about COVID-19. adding vaccination crusades. Without this coherence, the public is once again threatened with being hit through a sea of misinformation, malicious intent, and political instrumentalization of the pandemic, leaving giant swathes of the population anxious, hesitant, and unwilling to get vaccinated, even if a perfect vaccine is possible and an effective vaccine will be available.
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Already facing issues of safety, efficacy and cost, a vaccine against COVID-19 is approaching. In fact, it’s probably more accurate to say that there will be vaccines available, all of other types and efficacy. Compounding the difficulties of ending the pandemic, recent occasions in South Korea offer a grim view of some of the demanding situations that vaccine distribution is likely to entail. Let’s start by recapping those occasions, centered around a national flu vaccination campaign.
Why conduct a flu vaccination campaign in a pandemic?
In early September, the South Korean government introduced a competitive flu vaccination campaign, with the goal of vaccinating as many of its population as possible in preparation for winter. A special fund has been set up to provide loose vaccines to the most vulnerable segments of the population. population, namely: children, pregnant women and the elderly. As of Oct. 27, just over 10 million of South Korea’s 51 million people had been granted flexible vaccination, with a target of 19 million.
There are many good reasons for having a subsidized flu vaccine. On its own, the flu is already a major killer of the elderly, and responsible for around 20,000 deaths per year in South Korea. For those over the age of 70, complications from flu (of which pneumonia is most common) are responsible for around 9 percent of all deaths. Children have long been known to be significant reservoirs for viral transmission so vaccination not only protects them but also offers an indirect way to protect seniors.
Much of the South Korean calculation on flu vaccination was, of course, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since COVID-19 symptoms are remarkably similar to flu symptoms, it is important that the two not be confused in the event of a major outbreak. Unlike most other countries at this time, South Korea’s COVID-19 situation remains extremely stable, with an average of only 73 new cases per day over the last four weeks. Testing capacity also remains thankfully ample. Despite the calm, a large regional outbreak like the one centered on the city of Daegu in March still has the potential to stress the ability of a city or province to test thousands of people quickly. In these situations, it is important to use disease symptoms, such as fever and coughing, as secondary assessments in deciding quarantine and treatment. If many people have the flu, the reliability of symptom-checking diminishes significantly, potentially resulting in flu sufferers being treated as coronavirus patients, inadvertently diverting critical resources away.
Recent studies suggest that flu vaccines may improve immune formula and confer some marginal coverage against COVID-19 in the first few weeks or months after inoculation. The studies are by no means decisive, but even the option of minor innovations is worth it. seriously considering the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine. This idea turns out to have had a positive effect on the South Korean government’s decision to launch a flu control campaign. As with the flu, children have been known as a key reservoir. of COVID-19 transmission, adding up through asymptomatic cases, which likely motivated the decision to subsidize vaccines for both children and seniors.
Accounting for South Korea’s Flu Vaccine-Related Deaths
While there are moderate reasons to launch the flu campaign, a number of deaths were reported soon after vaccination. As of October 29, a total of 72 deaths have been reported, many of which occurred within 48 hours or a week of inoculation. These reports filled many with concern and ended public participation in the campaign.
While some public fear is understandable, the truth is that misconceptions are dispelled through facts.
Fact 1: Flu vaccines are incredibly common, have been used for decades, and have shown no evidence of an increased risk of death. In fact, study after study has consistently shown that vaccines reduce deaths, especially in older people, by protecting them from headaches. such as pneumonia. To underscore how conclusive this chart of pictures is, let me describe the figures we’re talking about: only in the U. S. In the U. S. , 160 million doses of flu vaccine are administered each year, while globally, about 15 billion have been administered in recent decades. Virtually all of those vaccines are made the same way (from bird eggs), so any hint of dating between inoculation and premature death would actually have been noticed.
Fact #2: Because of the huge number of populations involved, scientists have very accurate statistics on the side effects of vaccines. Fever, for example, is a common side effect in about 10 percent of all cases, a natural reaction of the immune formula to a foreign invader, a reaction that the vaccine tries to mimic. The most serious side effects related to flu vaccines are anaphylaxis and Guillain-Barré syndrome. The first, which occurs about once every million vaccinations, is usually due to a severe and life-threatening allergic reaction, due to bird egg residues in the vaccine. The latter, which occurs about once or twice in a million vaccinations, is a unique and serious disease in which the immune formula mistakenly attacks nerve cells. It is unknown why this happens, but death occurs in only 4-7% of those patients, provided prompt treatment is administered. The recent report on spinal inflammation in AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine trial seems most likely related to Guillain-Barré.
Fact 3: In fact, it’s conceivable that the body’s natural reaction to a flu shot could push a very weak or unhealthy user to the limit. There is no complicated way to say it, however, some seniors are already very close to death. , no matter how satisfied or healthy they may seem in the face of this unfortunate fact. Of the 72 vaccine-related deaths in South Korea, 10 of them occurred in seniors aged 70 and older. Of the 20 autopsies performed so far, at least thirteen have revealed pre-existing conditions, such as cardiovascular disease, potentially putting them at higher risk for sudden death, even as a result of a minor stressful event. It is because of this explanation that critically ill or hospitalized patients are sometimes not vaccinated. and older adults are still asked to report their pre-existing conditions prior to inoculation.
Fact #4: The probability of people dying shortly after a flu vaccine is not higher than the probability of people dying without one. It gives me absolutely no pleasure to say this, but numbers are important for putting flu vaccine deaths into perspective. Seventy-two might seem like a large number on a headline, but it actually isn’t when you consider the larger trends of death that are constantly at work. In South Korea, an average of 200,000 people over the age of 70 and 40,000 aged 60-69 die each year. Given that the country has roughly 5 million people over 70 and 6 million aged 60-69, this means that an average of 4 percent in the former age group and 0.7 percent in the latter die annually. Since September, about 70 percent of all eligible South Koreans over 70 (a total of 4 million) and 20 percent of those between 60 and 69 (5 million) have received a flu vaccine. If these numbers are used to extrapolate the odds of someone dying within a week of inoculation, one finds that the estimated value is in the hundreds, indicating the 72 deaths we have observed so far are easily explainable by normal patterns of age-specific death.
Fact 5: Scientists have long tracked the number of people who die within a week of getting the flu shot. In 2013, for example, a U. S. study of the The U. S. Department of Health found that 0. 011 percent and 0. 023 percent of all beneficiaries were older than 65 to 7 years old and over 74 years old. died, respectively. In 2019, the South Korean government reported that 0. 023% of people over the age of 65 had died. The latter figure would lead to the expectation that around 900 of the four million vaccinated people over the age of 70 will die indoors. of one week of inoculation. Fortunately, we are well below this figure, suggesting that deaths are following, in the absence of further formulation, the expected trends in overall deaths.
Implications for COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution
In recent years, vaccines have come under unfortunate public scrutiny. Anti-vaxxers in the U. S. and Europe have become louder and more widespread even though vaccine studies have been conducted in one form or another for more than two years. One hundred years, making it one of the most reliable and consistent medical devices ever invented. Since Edward Jenner used the cowpox cat in 1797 to grant immunity against smallpox, 14 diseases that once devastated the human race have been eliminated or controlled to the maximum. It’s true that vaccines don’t work for all diseases and require some time to develop, test, and distribute, but they’re also incredibly safe and rely on strict protective rules governing their use. Throughout their history, vaccines have been taken off the market, and even when they have, they have sometimes been taken off the market due to suboptimal efficacy or a production error, not because they caused sudden, unforeseen deaths.
As a country with high respect for science and wide acceptance in government institutions, the willingness of the South Korean public to adopt COVID-19 mitigation measures at the beginning of the pandemic is a testament to its ability to channel clinical recommendations. Recent occasions, however, seem to have shaken that confidence, blurring the lines for the once-10- to 30-minute flu shot. While the vast majority of experts consistently claim that the benefits of vaccination far outweigh the risks, the Interestingly, South Korean media has followed a more critical tone, perhaps inadvertently, instilling unnecessary doubt and suspicion.
Whether South Koreans will recover their confidence and resume vaccinations remains to be seen but the episode should function as an important warning for the future distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, both in South Korea and other countries. Just as we are observing now with South Korea’s flu drive, many people, especially seniors, will die within a week after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine, even if there is no causation at play. Unfortunately, this propinquity will likely be interpreted the wrong way, fueling concerns about vaccine safety even if the cause of death is found to be completely unrelated. As has been the case for virus mitigation, the South Korean experience highlights the critical importance of having consistent public messaging about COVID-19, including vaccine drives. Absent this consistency, the public will again be put at risk of being swamped in an ocean of misinformation, malintent, and political weaponization of the pandemic, leaving large sections of the population anxious, doubtful, and unwilling to be inoculated even if a perfectly safe and effective vaccine does become available.
Already facing issues of safety, efficacy and cost, a vaccine against COVID-19 is approaching. In fact, it’s probably more accurate to say that there will be vaccines available, all of other types and efficacy. Compounding the difficulties of ending the pandemic, recent occasions in South Korea offer a grim view of some of the demanding situations that vaccine distribution is likely to entail. Let’s start by recapping those occasions, centered around a national flu vaccination campaign.
Why conduct a flu vaccination campaign in a pandemic?