(MENAFN – The Conversation)
Confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 have increased in South Africa in recent weeks. This is largely due to two descendants, known as BA. 4 and BA. 5 sublineages, of the Omicron variant first known in South Africa that expired last year. .
The thing about the recent peak is that there are a number of differences between what the country is experiencing lately and the first 4 waves of COVID-19 in South Africa.
First, almost all South Africans now have some form of immunity. This is because they have been exposed to the virus, have been vaccinated, or a combination of both.
Second, the existing resurgence has led to a small increase in hospitalizations and, so far, a very small increase in excess mortality.
Third, the existing resurgence is the result of a sublineage of the variant (omicron) that caused the fourth wave. The shift to resurgences driven through sublineages that new variants potentially heralds a shift in the evolutionary trend of the virus and a shift toward its adaptation. endemic.
Finally, the country has lately the lowest point of restrictions in place at any time since the beginning of the pandemic.
These differences are because they have implications for the interpretation of COVID-19 trends and response. They show that South Africa appears to have entered a new phase of the epidemic.
In this new phase, higher population-level immunity in South Africa likely means that, in the absence of a new, more severe variant, long-term spikes in infections will lead to giant increases in hospitalizations and deaths.
This makes it difficult to use the same definitions and interpret knowledge in the same way as in the last two years. And that means the country wants new tactics to track hazards that, in turn, will signal forward-looking policies to protect the fitness formula as well. how to mitigate individual hazards.
For example, existing patterns show that in a context like South Africa, where population immunity levels are high, it is conceivable to have a very large accumulation in transmission that does not overwhelm the health system, even without establishing new restrictions.
Current short-term trends in the number of instances and proportion of positive tests suggest that there is a peak of transmission of the virus. But adjustments in test patterns over time mean those numbers are no longer comparable to past waves.
Peak recent knowledge also suggests that the rate of creating new instances is beginning to decline. In the coming weeks, we may see a spike and fall in reported instances and check for positivity, as we’ve become accustomed to seeing, or an extended plateau with a higher transmission point.
In the future, we expect the number of instances to wax and wane. However, the peaks and valleys of transmission will be less dramatic than before. And it is conceivable that periods of maximum transmission will become seasonal in nature, as seen with other respiratory viruses.
The precise transmission patterns of SARS-CoV-2 will be decided through a complex interaction between seasonal influences, viral evolution, decreased immunity to infection (and in all likelihood to disease), and demographic processes that result in long-term adjustments in population susceptibility.
The availability of vaccines and booster doses, and the highest rates of infection in the population to date, will mean that the number of reported cases will be less reliable as an indicator of infection threat or predictor of hospitalizations and deaths.
What matters now is whether there is enough follow-up in position to stumble upon primary changes in time to respond. Changes may come only with increases in the severity or sensitivity of the disease. Such vigilance will ensure that the country’s fitness formula is not overwhelmed.
It is also vital that Americans have enough data to make decisions to protect themselves. Assessing individual threat points will also indicate Americans’ behavior (such as wearing a mask and the amount of contact with others). Decide on high-threat situations, especially when transmission is high.
There is no best measure to monitor the strength of the infection, but several signs can be helpful.
First, the proportion of positive tests is a valuable indicator of short-term trends, with adjustments correlated with the expansion or reduction of transmission.
Similarly, sustained increases in the number of cases, or flare-ups, remain smart signs of short-term increases in transmission, as they are increases in very recent observations.
However, in the longer term, other points come into play that vary over time. These include:
These two point the probability that a user inflamed with SARS-CoV-2 will be detected and counted as a case, making the importance of the number of reported cases compared to the underlying flow of the virus.
Finally, knowledge about the genomic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater can be used to assess transmission trends at the network level. The South African Medical Research Council provides a dashboard showing trends in SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration for many of the country’s most populous districts. The nicd also publishes weekly reports showing longer-term trends and genomic distribution of detected samples and an interactive dashboard.
All of these signs provide data about the transmission path at the network level. But none of them translate into a threat of individual infection, a threat of serious disease, or a threat to overwhelm the fitness system.
Wearing masks and avoiding crowded or poorly ventilated indoor spaces and mass gatherings can still be vital tools in reducing the risk of relatively high-transmission infection periods. In addition, vaccination remains the most effective tool for reducing a person’s risk of serious illness.
HOMBREFN02122022000199003603ID1105258860
Keywords
feedback
Category
Date