Singapore: Healthy Retail – UOB

UOB Group Senior Economist Alvin Liew the latest edition of retail sales in Singapore.

“Although Singapore’s retail sales fell by -1. 3% MoM in August (from 0. 7% in July), this translated into a 13. 0% year-on-year expansion in August (compared to 13. 9% in July), the 5th consecutive month of double-digit growth. Excluding motor vehicle sales, the steepest year-to-m drop was -1. 8% (from 0. 6% in July), resulting in a cumulative 16. 2% YoY (compared to 18. 4% YoY). /year in July).

“While expansion slowed than expected, the expansion of retail sales in August still added to a solid foundation for domestic demand in 3Q22. While we note that most primary segments experienced m/m declines in August, this may be just a detail of normalization. after the strong post-reopening increase in April (2022) in the repressed call. According to Singapore’s Department of Statistics, year-on-year accumulation is attributed to year-on-year accumulation in the most important retail sales segments.

“Year-to-date, retail sales are up 11. 2% year-on-year. Domestic stores are likely to see continued internal and external support, complemented by the return of major events such as F1 night races, various BTMICE concerts and activities (travel and business meetings, incentive trips, congresses and exhibitions) that attract the arrival of tourists, while the tighter domestic labor market will also contribute to domestic customer demand. the coming months. Unless new COVID-19-like or other health-like hazards re-emerge in Singapore and the region (leading to the reimposition of social and travel restrictions, which is not our base case), we expect retail sales to increase by up to 8. 5% in 2022 (implying a more conservative forecast of around 4% expansion in the remaining months of 2022). “

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