UOB Group Senior Economist Alvin Liew assesses the latest commercial production figures in Singapore.
“Singapore’s commercial production (IP) exceeded expectations as it increased by 2. 0% YoM SA, resulting in an expansion of 0. 5% YoY in August (compared to July’s revised upward readings of -2. 1% MoY, 0. 8% YoY). Excluding volatile biomedical manufacturing, intellectual assets contracted to -2. 9% MoM, 1. 2% YoY in August (compared to an upward revision of -0. 9% MoM, 3. 1% YoY in August). July). “
“While the August research era exceeded expectations, it was due to a rebound in pharmaceutical production (6. 4% YoY). Other important resources from the expansion of intellectual assets came from continued expansion in transportation engineering (32. 8% YoY), general production (18. 8% YoY) and precision engineering (2. 9% YoY), offsetting declines in electronics (-7. 8% YoY) and Chemistry (-11. 2% YoY). “
“Including the accumulation in August, the Singapore IP grew 4. 4% in the first 8 months of 2022. The most recent drop in the electronics PMI for August (to 49. 6, the first contraction after two years of continued expansion and the lowest reading since July 2020) painted a consistent picture of what we saw in the most recent NODX and production data, a start of the electronics downcycle. transportation, general manufacturing and precision engineering, for the general expansion of IP, however, are seeing weaker electronic functionality and slower demand from key North Asian and advanced economies that may increasingly weigh on NODX momentum and production demand. However, we expect the sector to contract by 3. 7% in 2023 due to a shaky outlook for electronics and weaker external demand. Along the same lines, our GDP expansion forecast for 2022 is still unchanged at 3. 5%, however, the unstable output outlook for 2023 indicates a threat of trouble for our GDP expansion forecast next year.
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