The strait – between Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore – marks the access point between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, a maritime bottleneck through which much of Asia’s manufactured goods are transported to the world.
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)
As oil tankers, automobiles, and other merchant ships pass through the Strait of Malacca, unlit fishing boats ply the shipping lanes at night, making it one of the most difficult maritime areas to transit in the world, even in peacetime.
If a primary war ever breaks out in Asia, those demanding situations could be dramatically magnified, with shiploads leaving foreign waters in the middle of the Strait for what they hope will be the relative protection of the national territorial waters of impartial neighboring nations. .
The strait – between Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore – marks the access point between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, a maritime bottleneck through which much of Asia’s manufactured goods are shipped to the world. It also transports much of Asia’s oil and petroleum. natural gas, three-quarters of which goes to China.
For now, the actual immediate threat to shipping in the region is limited – particularly compared with another major maritime checkpoint in the Gulf of Aden, where suspected Iran-backed Houthi militants have attacked multiple vessels since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7.
There, those attacks – along with attempted and successful hijackings by small boats that, in one case, were aided by a former Yemeni army helicopter – constitute the most significant disruption to the maritime industry since the height of the Somali piracy crisis in 2007-2011.
The Strait of Malacca – 500 nautical miles long and 40 to 155 nautical miles wide – had a reputation in the 1990s and early 2000s as a hotbed of piracy and repeated armed attacks until increased patrols through regional navies brought them back to manageable levels.
However, this progress appears to have reversed in the 2020s, which some analysts attribute to increased poverty in regional communities as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
By the end of October, the number of incidents so far this year had reached 62, making at least three in a single week in October. This has led maritime organizations to call for more measures to prevent attacks.
In the Indian Ocean, a much larger piracy epidemic in the 2010s was finally largely reversed because hiring armed guards on merchant ships ended up making them too difficult for lightly armed pirate crews to capture. Earlier this year, the global shipping industry came to a halt. calling the Indian Ocean a “high-risk area,” only for the recent war in Gaza to once again wreak havoc.
So far, at least one non-Israeli shipment has been disrupted by a missile attack, while U. S. warships in the region have shot down drones and strike missiles on a scale seen in recent naval history.
Those attacks are already having an impact on international shipping patterns, as well as prompting a wider reappraisal of what other regions might suddenly turn violent offshore.
“The world is on fire,” a shipping captain who spoke on condition of anonymity said in an announcement. “We don’t know what we’re going to wake up to tomorrow. “
The clash has also affected European waters. The war in Ukraine has periodically turned the Black Sea into a war zone, especially after the collapse of a negotiated agreement between Turkey and the UN that allowed grain ships to sail.
Only a UK-brokered deal to provide more risk insurance to commercial vessels passing through Ukrainian waters has allowed shipments to continue, despite periodic ongoing attacks – while where possible, ships now cling to the national coastal waters of NATO members Bulgaria and Romania.
IN SEARCH OF SAFER WATER
Some shipping companies, including Maersk and ZIM, have publicly stated that they are now diverting their ships from the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal, to send them around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa and threaten the Red Sea. Surveillance company Alphaminer said on Dec. 4 that at least 12 container ships had already used the longest and most expensive route.
All of this would be just a puncture compared to the disruption of a war in Asia, in which Beijing would possibly attempt to impose a blockade on ships bound for Taiwan, as well as efforts to attack, disrupt and intercept the Chinese military and elsewhere. its probability of civilian ships in the United States and its allies.
Indian strategists have talked of using submarines and missiles to block the Malacca Strait entirely should they find themselves in existential war against Beijing. According to China expert Andrew Erickson at the US Naval War College, foreign policy thinkers in Beijing have long referred to China’s dependence on energy imports by that route as the “Malacca Dilemma”.
The prospect of blockade has not escaped the Pentagon. The fifth tranche of the US Virginia class attack submarines are capable of carrying 65 missiles and torpedoes each, more than twice the number of the earlier tranches launched since 2003. Australia will also purchase three of these submarines, followed by a new generation of US-British-Australian-US “AUKUS” subs.
Since the election victory of Philippine President Bongbong Marcos, the United States has also reached agreements to increase its military presence at the other end of the South China Sea, overlooking the Luzon Strait between the Philippines and Taiwan, a maritime “chokepoint” which would be, that is, essential in the event of an invasion of Taiwan.
Some U. S. officials say Chinese President Xi Jinping appears to have told his military to prepare for a war to take back Taiwan by 2027. As long as this suggestion holds, the Strait of Malacca will most likely remain turbulent, despite what appears to be a friendly meeting between Xi and U. S. President Joe Biden in California last month.
Even without this, a showdown with the Philippines itself over a number of disputed islands claimed and in many cases occupied through Manila or Beijing is also imaginable. The past few months have been marked by a series of clashes between aircraft, coupled with the use of water cannons and the allegedly planned ramming of a Philippine shipment through a Chinese counterpart.
No one really knows what widespread naval hostilities might look like for the global industry. During both global wars, the United States, Britain, and other allies managed to consolidate their merchant ships in convoys to protect them. Today, however, the maximum of global industry – especially with the West – is carried out through a multinational set of ships flying foreign flags.
China also owns multiple ports and other facilities around the region – including one in the highly strategic northern Australian town of Darwin, which also hosts Australian and periodically US forces. Some analysts warned that China might hide anti-ship missiles in containers, allowing surprise strikes including from its massive shipping sector. Undersea cables carrying communications and sometimes energy might also be vulnerable.
Countries around the world and the region are investing heavily in anti-ship missile capabilities, especially the Indo-Russian-made Brahmos. The existing relationship between Moscow and New Delhi is another complicating thing for the United States and its allies. as is the fact that many other countries in the region are desperate to remain neutral.
In September, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations conducted its first military operations without the United States or any other actor, described as organized humanitarian operations in Indonesia. Some analysts suggest that the goal is to ensure that its forces can act in combination on the occasion of a crisis, adding navigation to Taiwan under a potentially impartial flag to evacuate its citizens in the event of an invasion.
Like the waters of the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea, the Southeast Asian region is heading into what might well be called “interesting times,” and what happens to its sea lanes may affect almost everyone on Earth.
(Edited via Andrew Heavens)
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