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A guest post via Ovi
Below are a series of crude oil and condensate (CC) production tables, often abbreviated as “oil,” for oil-producing countries. The tables are created data provided through the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are current as of September 2023. It is the most up-to-date, detailed and complete data available on global oil production. Information from other resources such as OPEC, STEO, and country-specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway, and China is used to provide short-term perspectives on production and long-term direction for some of those countries and the world.
Global oil production rose to 927 Mb/d in September, green chart. The largest increase was in Saudi Arabia with 500 Mb/d, while the United States added 224 Mb/d and Brazil with 210 Mb/d.
This chart also projects global C C production through December 2025. Use the January 2024 STEO report as foreign power statistics to make the projection (red markers).
The red graph forecasts that World crude production in December 2025 will be 83,426 kb/d and is 1,154 kb/d lower than the November 2018 peak. Note the large production decrease starting in January 2024. It could be reflecting the latest OPEC+ cut announced in November 2023.
From October 2023 to December 2025, production is expected to increase to 1,613 Mb/d, or an average of 62 Mb/d/month.
Note that OPEC has about 3,000 Mb/d of cuts in reserve if needed.
World without the US oil output in September increased by 688 kb/d to 68,286 kb/d. October is expected to add 378 kb/d.
It should be noted that December 2025’s production of 69,832 Mb/d is lower than that of February 2023.
World oil production W/O the U.S. from October 2023 to December 2025 is forecast to increase by a total of 1,268 kb/d.
Instead of dividing the World oil-producing countries into OPEC and Non-OPEC, this section divides the countries into two groups on the basis of their production capacity. The division will be The Big Three, US, Saudi Arabia and Russia, and the Rest, i.e., the World oil producers W/O the Big 3. The top producer in the Rest, currently Canada, produces less than half of the lowest producer in the Big Three.
The peak of production in the big 3 occurred in April 2020 with a throughput of 34,739 Mb/d. This increase was linked to a sharp increase in Saudi Arabia’s production. Post-COVID, production peaked at 33,896 Mb/d in September 2022. The drop in production since then is due to internal cuts by OPEC countries.
September production of the Big 3 increased from 730 kb/d to 32,578 kb/d.
Production in the Rest has been slowly increasing since the low of September 2020, 43,039 kb/d. In February 2023, production rose to a post-COVID high of 49,221 kb/d. Output in September was 48,961 kb/d, an increase of 235 kb/d over August.
Production is down 3,318 Mb/d from November 2016.
Above are listed the World’s 12th largest oil producers. In September 2023, these 12 countries produced 76.8% of the world’s oil. On a MoM basis, these 12 countries increased production by 856 kb/d, while on a YOY basis, production dropped by 547 kb/d. On a YoY basis, the size of the Saudi Arabia drop is double the US increase.
September Non-OPEC oil production rose by 303 kb/d to 51,615 kb/d. The largest increase came from the US.
Using STEO data from December 2023, a projection of non-OPEC oil production was made for the period from October 2023 to December 2025 (red chart). Production is forecast to reach 53,109 Mb/d in December 2025, up 678 Mb/d from the December 2019 peak of 52,431 Mb/d.
From October 2023 to December 2025, oil production in Non-OPEC countries is expected to increase by 1,098 kb/d. According to the STEO, the major contributors to the increase are expected to be the US and Canada.
In September, non-OPEC production increased from 91 Mb/d to 38,362 Mb/d. October production is forecast to increase to 401 Mb/d.
From October 2023 to December 2025, production in non-OPEC countries, the United States, is expected to increase to 751 Mb/d.
It should be noted that December 2025 production is 50 Mb/d lower than the January 2020 peak of 39,564 Mb/d.
Listed above are the World’s 10 largest Non-OPEC producers. The criteria for inclusion in the table is that all of the countries produce more than 1,000 kb/d.
The production increase in September for those ten non-OPEC countries was three hundred Mb/d, while overall, those non-OPEC countries experienced a production increase of 303 Mb/d.
In September 2023, these 10 countries produced 83.9% of all Non-OPEC oil production.
OPEC C production increased to 625 Mb/d month-on-month, while year-on-year decreased to 1,741 Mb/d. Monthly global production increased to 927 Mb/d, while annual production decreased to 461 Mb/d.
The EIA reported that Brazil’s production increased by 210 kb/d in September to 3,672 kb/d.
Brazil’s National Petroleum Association (BNPA) reported that output in October decreased by 129 kb/d to 3,543 kb/d followed by a 135 kb/d rebound in November to 3,678 kb/d.
From March 2023 to November 2023, the increase in production increased to 563 Mb/d. No increase in production is expected in 2024. By 2024, EDRD expects a smaller increase, closer to one hundred Mb/d.
By 2024, the January EDRD states: “Crude oil production is expected to increase thanks to increased production at the Buzios (Franco), Mero (Libra NW), Tupi (Lula), Peregrino and Itapu (Florim) fields. Petroleum Assignment starts are expected at the Atlanta, Pampo-Enchova Cluster and Vida sites. However, emerging prices in the offshore market and inflation may also continue to delay allocations and limit expansion in the near term. However, by 2025, a build-up of nearly two hundred Mb/d is expected.
Production from the offshore “pre-salt” region has been added to the map of Brazil, blue markers. Oil production in November increased from 103 Mb/d to 2,825 Mb/d, accounting for most of the total 135 Mb/d. Much of Brazil’s production increase in 2023 came from highly productive pre-salt fields. From March 2023 to November 2023, production from pre-salt fields increased to 462 Mb/d.
According to the EIA, Canadian production fell from 115 Mb/d in September to 4,546 Mb/d. The reduction in September was due to fires in Alberta in the summer of 2023.
STEO forecasts Canadian production to rise to 142 Mb/d in October, with a further increase of 93 Mb/d in November, red markers.
According to this source, Alberta’s oil production peaked in November, surpassing Chinese production.
“Production is expanding as tar sands corporations prepare for the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline – which connects the province to Canada’s Pacific coast – starting this year, giving them 590,000 barrels of new export capacity.
Alberta’s oil-sands deposits represent the world’s third-largest crude reserve, and November’s production is more than all but four countries, edging out China’s average output in 2022 while trailing Iraq’s, according to data from BP p.l.c. (BP, OTCPK:BPAQF). Including output from Canada’s other provinces makes the country the world’s fourth-largest producer.”
In January 2024, Canada’s Energy Regulator approved the waiver request through Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX). Filling of the TMX pipeline could begin as early as March/April.
“Trans Mountain Corp is rushing the time to complete the expansion project, which will increase the capacity of the pipeline from Canada to the West Coast to 890,000 barrels per day from the existing 300,000 bbl/d. “
The EIA reported that Chinese oil production in September rose from 8 Mb/d to 4,122 Mb/d.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that it fell in October to 4,081 Mb/d and rebounded in November from 102 Mb/d to 4,183 Mb/d.
Every January for the past 4 years, Chinese production has seen a huge increase. In 2022, production jumped to 322 Mb/d between December 2021 and February 2022. However, according to January’s EDRD: by 2024, China’s liquid production is expected. a solid at the 2023 point of 4. 6 m/d.
While China’s output expansion has been largest since 2018, it would possibly be nearing its post-pandemic peak, as warned in January’s EDRD.
According to the EIA, Kazakhstan’s production increased from 86 Mb/d in September to 1,787 Mb/d.
STEO expects production to continue to increase in October to reach 1,912 kb/d, the red marker.
The January EDRD reports that “November crude oil production fell in mbt/d, month-on-month, to an average of 1. 6 mb/d. NGL and condensate production increased to 17 tb/d, month-on-month, at an average of 0. 4 mb/d.
Mexico’s production in August and September was 1,943 Mb/d, up 24 Mb/d from 1,919 Mb/d in July.
According to Pemex, Mexico’s oil production dropped in October and November to 1,921 kb/d.
Mexico recently revised its definition of condensate. This prompted the EIA to upload another 63 kb/d on average to Pemex’s report. The red markers come with the additional 63 kb/d.
According to the January 2024 EDRD: “Pemex’s overall crude production drop in mature spaces such as Ku-Maloob-Zaap and Integral Yaxche-Xanab is expected to outpace production increases in Zone 1 and El Golpe-Puerto Ceiba, with some starting -ups, namely TM-01 and AE-0150-Uchukil.
The EIA reported that in September Norwegian production fell to 1,695 Mb/d.
Separately, the Norway Petroleum Directorate (NPD) reported that October’s production increased to 1,798 kb/d and then added 1 kb/d in November 1,799 kb/d, red markers. The October rebound was due to repairs to the equipment failures experienced on a number of platforms in September.
According to the NDP: “Oil production in November was 3. 1% lower than forecast by the NDP and 0. 9% lower than forecast for this year. “
Oman’s production has increased from the low point in May 2020. However, production began to decline in November 2022. According to the EIA, September production remained unchanged at 1,041 Mb/d.
Qatar’s production in September remained unchanged at 1,322 Mb/d, likely due to a lack of up-to-date information.
The EIA reported that Russian DC production in September increased from 6 Mb/d to 9,941 Mb/d. According to data from the January STEO report, Russian production is expected to increase to 10,076 Mb/d through January 2024, orange markers. If the projection is correct, it means there are no signs that Western sanctions are affecting Russian oil production at the moment.
According to the source, the flow of Russian crude oil exceeds OPEC’s target (a full article).
(Bloomberg) — Seaborne shipments of Russian crude have shrugged off attacks on ships in the southern Red Sea to post gains over the past week as Moscow failed to deliver on export cuts it had promised its OPEC allies.
About 3. 43 million barrels of crude per day were shipped from Russian ports in the four weeks to Jan. 14, according to tanker tracking data tracked through Bloomberg. This represents an increase of 94,000 barrels per day from the constant period to January 7.
The most volatile weekly average rose from 166,000 barrels per day to 3. 45 million. Although this is 134,000 barrels less than the average export point observed through Bloomberg in the reference months of May and June, it is less than part of the relief. promised through Moscow to its OPEC partners by the first quarter of 2024. “
Using knowledge from Argus Media’s reports, Russian rough diamond production is presented from May 2023 to December 2023. For December, Argus reported that Russian crude oil production was 9,440 Mb/d, down 60 Mb/d from November, blue markers. The addition of 8% of Argus’ crude oil production in November is reflected in a C-C production estimate of 10,195 Mb/d, which is an approximation of the Russian ministry’s pre-war estimate, red markers.
Comparison of the Argus raw data with the latest STEO projection indicates that the EIA’s estimate for the C. C. is among Argus’ estimates for crude oil and DC. Before the war, the Russian ministry’s estimate was 404 Mb/d higher than that of crude oil. The EIA’s estimate for C C. La existing Russian proxy production in December is 119 Mb/d higher than the EIA Estimate.
The January IEA OMR reports that Russian crude production in December was 9,480 kb/d, very close to the Argus report. Note the trend difference between the EIA and Argus after October. Is this an indication EIA’s estimate for Russian C + C is too high?
U. S. oil production in October fell from 4 Mb/d to 13,248 Mb/d. The decline was primarily due to declines in GOM and North Dakota, partially offset by increases in Texas and New Mexico.
The dark blue graph, taken from the January 2023 STEO, is the forecast for U.S. oil production from November 2023 to December 2024. Output for December 2025 is expected to reach 13,595 kb/d.
The light blue graph represents STEO’s projection for production through December 2025 for the terrestrial L48. By 2024, STEO shows virtually no expansion in the L48 states. From October 2023 to December 2024, the production expansion is 25 Mb/d. This is consistent with the DPR model, which shows a trend of slow production expansion in recent months. It is unclear what is the source of the three hundred Mb/d production that accumulates by 2025.
This chart shows October oil production for New Mexico according to the EIA and November production from the New Mexico Petroleum Conservation Division (OCD). The blue chart represents the monthly knowledge published through the OCD and represents the overall oil production for Lea and Eddy counties. The red chart is a projection of what TOC could bring in about a year for November 2023 production.
Raw OCD data shows a cumulative of 79 Mb/d (Lea 59 Mb/d, Eddy 20 Mb/d) from October to November, resulting in 101 Mb/d in the projection.
Such an increase in production was an unforeseen wonder. The number of Lea County drilling rigs was added to the chart and provides a conceivable clue to the accumulation of this wonder. Keep in mind that the number of platforms started accumulating in June 2023. Considering an average time of 4 to six months to bring wells online, November’s production buildup may be just the first batch of those wells to start producing. If this is accurate, the production buildup in New Mexico may continue for a few more months. .
This table of the number of rigs was added to show the number of rigs for the Permian of New Mexico. While the number of rigs for Lea County began to increase in June, the opposite happened with Eddy. However, even as the number of rigs began to decline in Eddy County in June, production increased to 20 Mb/d in November.
For the week ending January 19, Eddy added 2 rigs to 46, while Lea was unchanged at 44. Lea’s rig count is down 19 rigs from the 65 operating in the week ending August 18.
– US Hz oil rigs decreased from four to four50, the lowest in the last ten weeks and down 118 since November 25, 2022. The number of rigs has been near four50 since the beginning of October.
– Permian rigs were down 4 to 292. Texas Permian was down 6 at 202, while NM was up 2 to 90. In New Mexico, Lea County was unchanged at 44 while Eddy added 2 to 46.
– Eagle Ford was 2-49.
– Added NG Hz platforms from up to 109 (not shown)
The number of hydraulic fracturing has increased from 1 to 235, 1 more than the low of 234 on December 29, 2021.
These six countries complete the list of Non-OPEC countries with annual production between 500 kb/d and 1,000 kb/d. Note that the UK has been added to this list since its production has been below 1,000 kb/d since 2020 and fell to a new low of 573 kb/d in August. September added 15 kb/d.
Their combined production in September was 3,714 Mb/d, 10 Mb/d less than in August.
Overall output in the six countries mentioned above has declined slowly and steadily since 2014 and appears to have accelerated after 2019.
The minimization from September 2018 or September 2019 to September 2023 is necessarily 1,000 Mb/d. This means that the average combined rate of decline for those six countries is between two hundred Mb/year and 250 Mb/year.
Original post
Editor’s note: The abstracts of this article were selected through the editors of Buscando Alfa.
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