By Andrew MacAskill
HELENSBURGH, Scotland (Reuters) – James Henderson has spent most of his life vehemently opposing Scottish independence. Now, reluctantly, he supports her.
The 71-year-old former marine engineer voted against Scotland’s exit from the UK in the last independence referendum in 2014. But after Brexit, the election of Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the coronavirus pandemic, he now thinks Scotland would be independent.
Henderson lives in Helensburgh, a seaside town in the Firth of Clyde, which is an unlikely home for Scottish nationalists.
The domain has one of the highest ranks of English citizens living in Scotland, and everyone knows who works near the Faslane nuclear submarine base, a symbol of the non-unusual links between the UK.
The base is the largest one-place employer in Scotland and the red, white and blue union flags wave in the gardens of some residents. If Scotland gains its independence and nationalists keep their promise to get submarines out of their waters, thousands of jobs are at risk.
But Scottish nationalism is emerging in places like this and in other old Unionist strongholds, a phenomenon that can tip the balance in favour of the breakdown of secular political union between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom.
“Independence is inevitable now, I don’t need to sound dramatic,” Henderson said. “I feel like we’re splitting up and Scotland can paint better.”
The coronavirus pandemic is forcing ties between the UK. In Scotland, where this is as visible as possible, 54% of others are now pro-independence, according to a recent poll, motivated by the belief that the semi-autonomous government in Scotland has controlled the coronavirus epidemic more than the UK government.
According to the UK’s decentralized formula agreed towards the end of the last century, the country is guilty of problems such as health, while the London government is guilty of control of the economy and foreign policy in general.
All nations in the UK, England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland closed at about the same time. But they gave the impression at other speeds, a discrepancy that reflects the considerations that The Johnson administration, having been blocked too late, leaves prematurely.
Nicola Sturgeon, Prime Minister of Scotland and leader of the Scottish National Independence Party, fully praised his handling of the crisis, and joined those who voted to remain in the UK in the 2014 independence referendum.
Sturgeon applauded for his honesty, mastery of detail and a more cautious technique for lifting blocking restrictions. Scotland has reported no deaths of other people who tested positive for coronavirus last week. In contrast, England reports more than a dozen deaths a day.
John Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, said for the first time that nationalists are the favorites for gaining independence. Curtice said the crisis had shown Scots that their government could chart its own course.
“Coronavirus has put the Scottish government first in people’s lives,” he said. “It eroded the union a little more.”
Constitutional shock
In Northern Ireland, where politicians who want to meet Ireland’s strength percentage with pro-British industry trade unionists, the government’s plan to lift the blockade also looked more like the most cautious in the Republic of Ireland and departed from Johnson’s government.
Analysts say the pandemic has allowed Sinn Fein nationalists to advance the cause of Irish unity by calling for an island-wide policy.
In Scotland, the cause of independence was also strengthened by Britain’s exit from the European Union. Keeping the bloc club as a key promise from the Unionist field in the 2014 referendum and the Scots voted overwhelmingly to remain in the Brexit referendum two years later.
Many are driven by a conservative government that they did not vote for and which they sponsored and arrogant. Johnson is hated.
With all this, nationalists are now on track to win a majority in next year’s Scottish parliamentary elections, to the polls.
If this happens, they will claim the political and ethical right to hold a referendum.
They are even convinced that they will take Dumbarton, which includes Helensburgh and other villages around the nuclear base. The seat is just one of seven that nationalists have never directly chosen since the creation of the Scottish Parliament in 1999.
Alasdair Jamison, an SNP leader, said that if they won the seat, it would show that there is a realignment in Scottish politics.
“If nationalism increases here, it will have to grow everywhere,” he said.
The job holder, Jackie Baillie, clung to her seat with 109 votes in the last election of 2016.
However, independence is neither imminent nor inevitable. To hold a referendum legally, Scotland wishes the permission of the British Parliament.
Johnson, who was heckled on a visit to Scotland on Thursday to shore up support for the union, has said the 2014 referendum was decisive and should be respected. But if the nationalists win a majority this will set up a constitutional clash over the right to call another referendum.
In the long run, the biggest challenge of the motion of independence may be the functionality of the economy. Scotland’s economic expansion rate is about a share of the UK average and unemployment is higher.
Baillie, who recognizes that her seat is vulnerable, said the economic consequences of the pandemic can convince the electorate now of additional constitutional turmoil.
“Changing the card will not put bread on the table. I probably wouldn’t put my shoes on the children’s feet. They’d probably need it now. But priorities are changing,” he said.
But Andrew Nisbet, a local leader of the Helensburgh crusade to stay in Scotland in the UK six years ago, said the nationalist motion is now unstoppable.
“Sadly, I fear the union is unlikely to survive.”
(Report through Andrew MacAskill; additional report through Padraic Halpin in Dublin. Edited through Guy Faulconbridge and Angus MacSwan)