This winter it has seemed as if everyone knows someone who has been affected by Covid again. In colder temperatures and with more people mixing together indoors it makes it easier for the virus to spread.
But experts warn that cases will continue in the coming weeks, as the existing wave “has not yet peaked. “
The latest data shows that infections have spiked during the winter. Figures from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) showed a 36% increase in Covid cases in the week to December 13 last week.
And one strain may have been more culpable than others. The JN. 1 subvariant has been trending dominantly in recent weeks.
Figures show it accounted for just one per cent of Covid cases at the end of October and five per cent by mid-November. Since then, it has risen to 51 on Christmas Day.
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As noted, JN. 1 is a descendant of the Pirola variant derived from the Omicron strain.
It has been detected in several countries, the United Kingdom, Spain, Iceland, the United States, India and China.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has called it a “variant of concern,” and it is being monitored.
Experts now warn that the UK may still hit its infection rate.
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Speaking to i-journal, Professor Christina Pagel, from University College London, said: “Unfortunately, it is most likely that this JN. 1 wave has still peaked and will peak in mid-January, as be it next week or the week after that.
“And then infections will also remain very high for a few weeks on a downward slope.
“I’m confident that this wave will rival the first two waves of Omicron in 2022 and possibly even surpass them. “
But he noted that hospitalizations are unlikely to have the success seen in past waves of Omicron.
Professor Steve Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds, said we may see case numbers “similar to the emergence of BA. 2”, which caused the largest wave ever recorded in England in March and April 2022.
At the time, an estimated 7. 6 percent of people were infected with Covid.
The U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued a statement of intent and prevention. U. S. officials noted the immediate spread of JN. 1, but said it is no more competitive than other variants.
“At this time, there is no evidence that JN. 1 poses a greater threat to public health compared to other variants circulating lately,” he said.
Currently, the UKHSA estimates that around 4. 2% of people in England and Scotland have Covid, or one in 24. Infection rates are highest among older people aged 18 to 44.
The NHS and UKHSA are urging eligible people to come forward for a seasonal Covid jab vaccine by January 31.
Prof Steven Riley, from the UKHSA said: “It’s important that those people who are most at risk of severe illness and hospitalisation as a result of COVID-19 come forward for their seasonal vaccination to make sure they have the best possible protection this winter.
“You can get a vaccine through your GP, by booking with a local NHS vaccination service, or you can find a COVID-19 vaccination walk-in site.”
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