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According to various local and foreign news sources, Saudi Arabia informed the United States of a nearby attack via Iran. The warning follows a report via Iranian state television showing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei telling an organization of academics marking the anniversary of the seizure of the US embassy in Tehran through of Iran in 1979 that the fashionable United States is “very vulnerable” and that the country is no longer the dominant force in the world. The comments also come at a time when Iran is in the midst of a wave of popular unrest following the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini, and when Iran is being censured across the United States for offering drones to Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. . Array What turned out to have gone largely unnoticed, however, is that plans were already in place for Iran to launch such an attack on Saudi Arabia in early October through its same old channel for such attacks, the Yemeni Houthis, opposed to that Saudi attack. Saudi (along with the United Arab Emirates, among others) has been waging a de facto war since 2015. So the question is not whether such an attack will take a stand against Saudi Arabia, but when and what will be the ramifications for Saudi Arabia. to be?
There are comments from the Houthis themselves in early October about what they will do, and precedents from their past Iran-backed attacks on Saudi Arabia to work from. On October 2, Houthi army spokesman Yahya Saree wrote: “If the Saudi-Emirati [UAE] coalition continues to deprive our other Yemeni people of access to their resources, our military can, with God’s help, deprive him of his He added: “Until the US and Saudi aggressor countries move closer to a truce that gives other Yemenis the right to exploit their oil wealth to profit from the salaries of Yemeni state employees, the military grants oil corporations operating in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia a chance to stage their stage and walk away. These comments focused on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure, the only base of its global strength and the lucrative engine that allows it to pay for its war against the Houthis aligns perfectly with the goals of the latest Houthi attacks against the country Unfortunately for the Houthis and for the world’s industrialized economies already seeking to cope with emerging inflation due to giant compo In addition to the traditionally high costs of oil and fuel, such attacks have already raised oil costs in the short term. As long as the Houthi attacks do not completely wipe out Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure, which is due to their wide dispersal throughout the country, Saudi Arabia would ultimately benefit from those high oil costs, just like Russia and Iran. . Only the Houthis would not. Related: Saudi Arabia cuts oil costs for Asia
The net effect of the combined attack on Abqaiq and Khurais led to the temporary suspension of 5. 7 million barrels consistent with the day (bpd) of Saudi Arabia’s oil. This equates to more than a portion of Saudi Arabia’s genuine crude oil production capacity, not the capacity figure. Saudi Arabia has pulled out of thin air for geopolitical strength purposes in recent years and resulted in the largest single-day rise in oil prices. Characteristic of Saudi Arabia’s statements about its oil industry, they were still in their infancy. So, as oil markets can expect exactly the same thing every time Iran thinks the time has come for the Houthis to launch similar attacks on Saudi Arabia, and it turns out to be early, it is consistent with reading about the Saudi reaction in more detail. depth.
One surprising comment came from the new Saudi oil minister at the time, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, right after the attacks. He said the Kingdom planned to: “restore [its] production capacity to 11 million bpd by the end of September and [its] total capacity to 12 million bpd two months later. “It was incredibly telling that he talked about “capacity” and then “market source,” since those are terms the Saudis have finished using to avoid talking about “production. “Because capacity and source are not the same. all as actual production at the wellhead. ” What Saudi Arabia seeks to do by failing to reveal the true picture is protect its reputation as a reliable oil supplier, especially to its target consumers in Asia. so we have to take all feedback with tweezers,” Bronze said in 2019.
In any case, and as one would expect in the case of the next Houthi attack on the country, there is no way, from a technical or technical point of view, that Saudi Arabia could correctly gauge how long it would take to return to a point of view. capacity in 2019. As Bronze of Energy Aspects said at the time: “The engineers we spoke to said that after an incident like this, it would take several weeks to assess the damage, let alone start doing anything, rather than the few days the Saudis took and then announced the actual schedule, and a very short schedule, to bring other stages of capacity back in. The Saudis cut materials for their domestic industry in 2019 and reduced the amounts they sent to domestic refineries, and some buyers were warned of the delays and others were presented with swaps with other grades. Other action taken through Saudi Arabia, denied through it at the time but showed given through OilPrice. com from various oil trading resources and Iraqi oil ministry resources, was to buy Iraqi oil on the spot market. The ideal irony of this, of course, was that Iraqi oil is very much Iranian oil, given the longstanding practice of renaming oil from the two countries’ shared fields so that Iran can circulate. cumvent foreign sanctions.
By Simon Watkins for Oilprice. com
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