This week, a diplomatic spat between the United States and Saudi Arabia turned into petty insults, a public sign of the terrible state between the two countries.
The exchange, fueled by a dispute over oil production, deals a blow to an alliance that for decades has been characterized by predictability: The United States provides arms and security to the Saudis and, in return, gains a key strategic partner in a volatile region.
It’s an update spearheaded by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is intentionally disparaging the United States in an effort to chart a more independent course, one Insider said.
Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, said: “With Mohammed bin Salman at the helm, Saudi Arabia is very determined to assert its autonomy from the United States.
“Riyadh leaders have sent many signals to Washington that the Kingdom will pursue its own national interests as perceived by Saudi officials, deepening cooperation with Beijing and Moscow. “
Specifically, this took the form of Saudi Arabia joining Russia with other oil-rich countries in pronouncing a sharp cut in production.
This was the exact opposite of the Biden administration’s demands to increase oil production, hoping to reduce costs that would help sustain U. S. inflation. U. S. Lower and deprive Russia of revenue.
According to a New York Times report, the U. S. The US had the idea that they had reached an agreement with Saudi Arabia and were surprised when their plan collapsed.
The result was a humiliation for President Joe Biden, who sought to build a foreign coalition opposed to Russia and build bridges with the Saudis.
Biden risked the wrath of his own party’s critics against the crown prince in Jeddah in July, shamefully backtracking on a crusade promise to turn Saudi Arabia into a “pariah. “
“Let’s be clear: the Saudi resolution was made with full awareness that it would undermine Biden’s policy position at home and abroad,” former U. S. diplomat Aaron David Miller wrote in Foreign Policy about cutting oil production.
He noted that this comes just before the midterm elections, where Democratic hopefuls complain to Republicans about inflation.
Cafiero, analysts, said Crown Prince Mohammed believes reaching out to Russia and China will have more “leverage” internationally.
The crown prince also shares with Russian President Vladimir Putin an obsession with crushing domestic opposition, and the men are “authoritarian in essence,” Cafiero said.
It’s only geopolitical calculations that separate Americans and Saudis, but non-public antipathy between Biden and bin Salman reportedly does.
The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday that the crown prince “mocks President Biden privately, mocks the 79-year-old’s gaffes and questions his sharpness. “
Biden, for his part, has opposed the killing of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi, who murdered and then dismembered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018 through agents, an operation that U. S. intelligence says he ordered directly through Crown Prince Mohammed.
During the 2020 election campaign, Biden vowed to turn Saudi Arabia into a “pariah” on murder in rhetoric calculated to please the Democratic base, angering Riyadh.
“Bin Salman and others in Saudi Arabia were incredibly angry about this rhetoric. Such negative sentiments have informed Saudi officials’ perspectives on Biden’s presidency,” Cafiero said.
Crown Prince Mohammed did little to hide that he would prefer former President Donald Trump to be in the White House, Cafiero said, believing the crown prince has a transactional style.
The Saudis recently funded a high-profile golf tournament at Trump’s facility, where he enthusiastically participated.
Trump showed a minimally productive attitude about Khashoggi’s murder, which occurred during his presidency.
His hardline stance opposed to Iran, Saudi Arabia’s main regional foe, has also aligned with Saudi interests, in contrast to Biden’s policy of reviving the nuclear that the Obama White House has hit with Iran.
Despite the cooling under Biden, the United States and Saudi Arabia have a lot to lose from the alliance’s deterioration, Cafiero said.
The Saudis still have the weapons and security guarantees of the United States. The U. S. The U. S. needs the Saudis to stabilize oil markets and keep costs low at home.
“Washington and Riyadh have many not unusual interests that deserve to keep the partnership alive, [but] bilateral relations are much less friendly,” Cafiero concluded.