The far-reaching consequences of the Iranian attack on Israel last weekend are still in the spotlight. But what is already transparent is that they will only affect Israel, Iran and the United States, but also many, if not all, Arab states, with the addition of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
This crisis provides an opportunity for the Biden administration to finalize the details of a new U. S. security guarantee for Saudi Arabia.
For Riyadh, which has devoted more than a year to a foolproof U. S. security guarantee, Israel’s Iron Dome and Arrow-3 missile defense systems, as well as allied efforts across the U. S. , U. K. , France and Jordan, to protect some 350 cruise ships. missiles, ballistic missiles and drones on Saturday night – demonstrated a complex edition of the long-term that the Kingdom is desperate to achieve.
The foreign policies of all countries depend, to varying degrees, on their domestic objectives. But Saudi Arabia is lately at the extreme end of the spectrum. What Riyadh is most concerned about is the opportunity to ensure the success of the country’s economic transformation. a preference never greater than today, as the Kingdom will have to scale back its Vision 2030 project, the most imaginative and futuristic, Neom.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s determination to succeed in the Kingdom’s transition from hydrocarbons to phosphate production, green energy, tourism and other emerging profit turbines is why he is so determined to make Vision 2030 a success.
But if Iran or its Iranian-backed proxies launch drones or missiles against the Kingdom in the coming years, there will be enough protection from political dangers around the world to allow Saudi Arabia’s economic and social transition to continue at the speed and in the manner that MbS envisions, if any.
It was this conclusion that motivated the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran last year: an effort through Riyadh to cover and prevent a resumption of the confrontation with Iran. And that’s what’s driving Saudi Arabia’s long-term efforts to secure new security promises. and U. S. support.
On Sunday, Khalid bin Salman, MbS’s defense minister and full brother, tweeted two sentences following his call with U. S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, the first of which was: “. . . we [the Kingdom and the United States] have reviewed our defense partnership strategy and explored tactics to further strengthen it. The fact that KbS focused first on the defense relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia, and then addressed the factor of a potential regional conflict, was not a mistake: it obviously reflected Riyadh’s existing priorities.
From Saturday night until Sunday morning, in Riyadh, Saudi leaders marveled at the resounding good fortune of Israel’s defense and the protection it received. This is juxtaposed with Riyadh’s own preference for such protections and is motivated by concern given the closer geographical proximity between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which will reduce the time of precaution in the face of an imminent attack and could push Riyadh into a position of greater flexibility.
Israel is unlikely to be comfortable with Saudi Arabia having the same layers of defense it demonstrated on Saturday, based on its insistence on maintaining its qualitative military edge. But given the inadequacy of the defenses Saudi Arabia has lately for the country and its population. of the attack, while Riyadh might need Israel’s point of defense, it will most likely settle for less.
The commitments the U. S. will make to Saudi Arabia in the event of an attack will be greater. It is realistic to believe that Washington will agree to adopt a similar defense by helping shoot down missiles and drones from Iran or its proxies aimed at Saudi Arabia, as the United States did along with Israel on Saturday night. But here, too, Riyadh can flex, seeing what was imaginable on Saturday, when five years ago it bitterly experienced the physical and mental impact of an Iranian attack in which the United States and other allies were not there to supply. support.
And that flexibility will be imperative when it comes to normalization with Israel and the factor of an “irreversible and time-limited path to a Palestinian state” proposed by the United States, key elements of the agreement to ensure U. S. security guarantees and a civilian nuclear program. These three parts are intertwined facets of the long-term “grand bargain” that the Biden administration has touted as the cornerstone of ending the existing war in Gaza. But even if the chances of a grand bargain succeeding are slim, the faster the government is in tune with Riyadh, the faster it can work together to cajole Israel and the Palestinians onto a common path.
The Saudi and Arab street as a whole will not tolerate a Saudi normalization with Israel that leaves the Palestinians behind, especially as Israel’s war against Hamas and the ensuing humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues. But Saudi Arabia decided to succeed in a deal to meet its own security needs in light of Saturday’s Iranian attack — it would probably now be more willing to prioritize the “irreversible path” component of that statement; especially since the Palestinian Authority does not have the legitimacy to be its executor and there is no option for Israel to settle for a Palestinian state in the near future.
Prioritizing the facet of the “irreversible path” rather than a short timeline is probably the only way an Israeli leader could begin to reach such an agreement, given the widespread Israeli opposition to a Palestinian state after the Oct. 7 Hamas deal.
Crises explain what’s most important to Americans and states. Ironically, there has never been a better time for Washington to finalize in detail the contours of a security agreement with Riyadh.
Jonathan Panikoff is director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council and former deputy director of Middle East intelligence at the National Intelligence Council.
The perspectives expressed in this article are those of the author.
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