As Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its eighth month, there is still no transparent end in sight to the carnage. Tens of thousands of foot soldiers have been killed or maimed, entire cities have been reduced to piles of twisted rubble, there have been allegations of torture and atrotowns through Russian occupiers, and millions have refugees.
While Russia has occupied swaths of territory in the south and east of the country, Ukraine has fought harder than expected and humiliated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invading forces, who, on paper, intended to overwhelm Ukraine in a matter of days.
The Ukrainian defenders did not repel a total conquest of Russia, but also regained parts of the country by launching bold and well-organized counteroffensives to the east and south.
However, despite defeats on the battlefield, Russia still has destructive military functions to which it can appeal. In recent weeks, it has introduced missile and drone bombing of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Since Europe’s largest war since 1945 seems to have entered a phase of attrition, the clash can play out in a number of ways.
If the fighting comes to an impasse, there may be a negotiated transitional ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, according to Seth Jones, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS, Program for International Security.
“It probably wouldn’t be an end, however, it would be the declining active state of war, at least temporarily, and it would be something closer to a frozen confrontation that can heat up or cool down depending on the diversity of factors. “said. said.
Jones referred to the two Chechen wars that took place in the 1990s. Russia brokered a ceasefire in 1994, which ended the first war, but then reignited the war three years later and intensified its attack.
In this scenario, Russia might expect the U. S. toand other Western countries lose interest in the confrontation and in Ukraine.
“It would shift the balance of forces in Russia’s favor and allow it to claim territory as it preferentially sought in February,” Jones said.
It is conceivable that the war will end with a peace agreement, although an agreement is complicated because of the other objectives of Russia and Ukraine and what they consider their territory valid.
“I think Vladimir Putin is too worried right now. It has committed too much political and military capital right now to withdraw from the war without very clear success,” Jones said.
Jones said that while it is not transparent what Putin would accept as a “success,” he can settle for Russia taking parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts, which he can then outline as his targets.
The most confusing thing is what Ukraine would be willing to compromise on in any peace deal. Jones said it would be almost “politically suicidal” for any Kyivan leader to cede any Ukrainian territory.
When it began its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s purpose to take over the country completely.
Jones said it is important to note that Ukraine has already won a significant victory in preventing Russia from achieving this goal.
“It can be said that, at least until February 2022, the third most resilient military army in the world, the United States and China, were the Russians. So they have already prevented a Russian bombing raid from taking the capital, overthrowing the government and either integrating it into Russia or building a puppet government,” he said.
It is unlikely now that Russia will absolutely oppose the war and achieve its original goals, but it can settle for a “victory” in the form of a peace agreement in which it would take more territory than it had before the invasion. Started.
As long as Putin is close to the country, it is very likely that Russian forces will withdraw completely, Jones said.
“In Russia, bad things happen to leaders who lose wars,” Mark Cancian, a retired U. S. Navy colonel, told Insider in the past. He is a senior advisor to CSIS.
But even though Russia’s strongman faces domestic discontent over emerging war losses, partial mobilization of reservists and an economy torn by sanctions, it turns out to show no signs of backing down.
While the chances of him being toppled in a coup are possibly higher than ever, experts have said in the past that the Russian leader has made his regime “shockproof” through a culture of mistrust among Russian intelligence agencies.
However, a complete withdrawal from Russia may be imaginable if Putin were to be expelled or die. Rumors have long circulated about his alleged health problems, despite U. S. military and intelligence experts in the U. S. military. U. S. officials have warned that there is no credible evidence that he is ill.
Ukrainians that absolute victory is possible. Svitlana Morenets, a Ukrainian journalist working for the news magazine The Spectator in the UK, spoke Friday in a debate titled “Is it time to make peace in Ukraine?”
The plan is for years of war but for the defeat of Russia’s army, he said. He pointed to Putin’s recent decline in the “grain corridor” as an example of Russia’s growing weakness.
Not every war ends with a transparent victory on one side. Another option is for the fighting to continue without any ceasefire or agreement, which Jones says can last for years.
This may involve special forces fighting on instructions on the sidelines, guerrilla action from Ukraine into Russian-controlled territories, and long-range bombing of Ukrainian territory from Russia or Belarus.
In its current phase, the confrontation turns out to be a war of attrition. Instead of taking more territory, Russia’s goals at the current level of war appear to be to weaken Ukraine’s resources, economy, and military.
It is unclear which aspect might hold out longer, Russia has suffered significant losses in terms of infantry and weapons.
According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the new Russian general Sergey Surovikin plans to build a strong line of defense in the occupied territories and freeze the war during the winter.
Russia will not seek to launch a new large-scale offensive on Ukrainian territory for the time being and it will take time for its combat capabilities, the think tank said.
Putin has continuously made nuclear threats since the invasion of Ukraine began, saying it was “not a hoax. “
Western countries and experts are divided over how seriously to take threats.
Jones said the use of nuclear weapons carries wonderful risks, especially if Putin detonates them in territories he claims to be Russian. There would also be radioactive fallout on Russian territory due to proximity.
If Russian forces face a full-scale military defeat, Putin could simply use a nuclear weapon on the battlefield, but Jones said the dangers of nuclear weapons would likely outweigh the benefits.
“There are many dangers in making this taboo nuclear, politically and diplomatically. What would this mean for Vladimir Putin’s regime?
It’s not clear if NATO would be concerned in this scenario, Jones said. A senior official has said in the past that a Russian nuclear attack could cause a “physical response” from NATO itself.
However, Jones said NATO’s declaration of war on Russia may create a primary war that may attract other countries like China, which is an end result the organization must avoid.
To avoid this scenario, NATO will most likely resort first to higher sanctions and Ukraine with weapons.