Whatever the goal of the Russian army in northern Ukraine — opening a new front for a primary offensive or, alternatively, creating a distraction to divert Ukrainian troops from the ongoing Russian offensives in the east — the Russians are not faring very well.
Ukrainian heavy forces fought alone in lightly armed territorial ensembles in northern Kharkiv Oblast in the early hours of Russian incursions on May 9. When Russia’s new organization of forces in northern Russia tried to attack infantry teams with tanks, Ukrainian drones chased them down and destroyed them. .
The front line is stabilizing. Combat becomes “positional” as troops fight over individual buildings. “The Russian offensive in the northern Kharkiv region has ceased,” Ukrainian war correspondent Yuriy Butusov reported on Wednesday.
He could simply move his forces from the east to the north and back to break through the Ukrainian lines and advance toward Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second and most vulnerable city, just 40 kilometers from the Russian border.
Or it can simply do what it does when it becomes more unlikely to capture an intact Ukrainian village, town or city, and bombard the disputed settlements along the border domain of Kharkiv Oblast until there are no ruins left yet.
Unfortunately, for Ukrainians, there are signs that the Russian leadership would possibly do the latter. Russian cluster munitions are already scattered across the city of Vovchansk, the site of the easternmost axis of the Russian operation in the north.
Observers expected Russian attacks. For weeks, Russian regiments and brigades had been massing along the border. May 9, Victory Day in Russia, the day when Russians celebrate the defeat of the Soviet Union at the hands of Nazi Germany in World War II, is the most likely date for the start of a Russian Operation.
Despite symptoms of imminent attacks on the northern cities of Vovchansk and Lyptsi, the General Staff in Kiev waited until the border area, leaving the initial defense to lightly armed territorial brigades.
It is conceivable that Ukrainian commanders hoped to better perceive Russian intentions before deploying heavier forces to the north. After all, it was conceivable that the purpose of a Russian operation across Ukraine’s northern border would be to draw Ukrainian brigades away from battlefields in the East to give Russian forces new merit in those areas.
But leaving the initial defense in the hands of the territorials was risky. “Territorial defense teams are not tasked with preventing the advance of the main enemy,” stressed the Ukrainian research organization Frontelligence Insight.
Worse still, it turns out that the territorials dug some of their trenches in the posts to block the Russian advance. “This is the result of systematic disorders resulting from a lack of understanding of the functions and readiness of the brigades,” Frontelligence Insight concluded. .
So when platoon-sized teams of Russian troops (dozens, not loads) crossed the border on V-E Day, they temporarily seized a chain of small villages in the slightly “gray zone,” about a mile south of the border. The Ukrainian territories withdrew.
It became apparent that the Ukrainians had to deploy heavy forces or watch the colonies fall further north. An organization of heavy brigades advanced northwards: the 42nd and 92nd Mechanized Brigades took up positions in and around Lyptsi; the 57th Motorized Brigade and the 71st Jager Brigade entered Vovchansk.
“In the Vovchansk region, Ukrainian defenses have been especially strengthened, and the enemy’s attacks are becoming more and more effective,” Butusov said. “The Russians cannot take our troops out of their positions in and around the city. “
The scenario is the same in Lyptsi: “Ukrainian troops have especially intensified their attacks on the enemy in this part of the front and are taking the tactical initiative,” according to Butusov.
In a week of fighting, the Ukrainians have halted the Russian advance. On May 12, Russia suffered its largest single-day loss in its 27-month war against Ukraine. Within 24 hours, more than 1,700 Russians were killed or wounded. according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
Fighting stiffer Ukrainian defenses, Russian forces are looking for something new: attacking in smaller teams than smaller, larger teams. “Assault teams, normally the size of a platoon, interact in a fortress before merging with other strike teams,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies said. explained. ” This reduces casualties when the objective is reached but slows down the speed of progress. “
But a small change in infantry tactics cannot fundamentally adjust the dynamics along the northern front. With the forces they have at their disposal (around 30,000 soldiers spread across a dozen regiments and brigades), the Russians would probably not be able to capture Vovchansk and Lyptsi. , let alone march on Kharkiv.
The fact that the Kremlin has sent more troops to the organization of northern forces may reveal the ultimate purpose of the Victory Day operation. “Despite existing events, the attack from the north seems to be too telegraphed and Russia seems to have enough troops. ” “There is nothing more than a primary diversion aimed at forcing Ukraine to deploy its limited reserves,” wrote Finnish analyst Joni Askola.
But it is clear that the Ukrainians have redeployed enough troops from east to north to weaken their defenses on the main battlefields in the east, around Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar.
“If the goal was to create a diversion, it was somewhat successful,” Askola concluded, “because equipment and resources that did not exist before were transferred to Kharkiv Oblast. “
But “the extent of this good luck will depend on the number of new sets that want to be deployed,” Askola added. And over the past few days, the number of new Ukrainian outfits heading north has been. . . none.
The Northern Campaign is not over. The Russians “are not yet defeated,” Butusov stressed, “and the hard battles of destruction continue. “It is frightening that the Russians decide to simply demolish Vovchansk and Lyptsi with artillery and bombs instead of continuing to capture them with expensive flats. attacks that would not possibly divert Ukrainian forces to the extent the Kremlin hopes.
Sources:
1. Yuri Butusov: https://t. me/ButusovPlus/10315
2. Frontelligence Overview: https://twitter. com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1790086956073750575
3. Center for Defense Strategies: https://cdsdailybrief. substack. com/p/russias-war-on-ukraine-150524
4. BBC: https://www. bbc. com/news/articles/c72p0xx410xo
5. Joni Askola: https://twitter. com/ArturRehi/status/1790751743887696088
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