Russia’s oil production on track for first drop in 4 months

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Russian crude and condensate production declined 1. 9% this month from July, and if the trend continues, August will be the first month of 4 in which Russian production has fallen from last month, according to the Russian Energy Ministry. via Bloomberg.

Russia decided to recover its oil and condensate production to February 2022 levels, just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Still, Moscow is far from its quota from OPEC, which forecasts monthly increases of 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) or more.

Russia’s oil production and exports have held up in recent months, with much smaller-than-expected falls, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report in early August. But the agency’s report warns of a 20% drop in Russian production if its oil does not find a way out with Asian buyers when the EU embargo comes into full force in February 2023.

In its oil market report, the IEA revised upwards its outlook for global oil for 2022 due to “more limited than expected declines in Russia. “

In July, Russia’s oil production fell only 310,000 bpd below pre-war levels, while total oil exports fell just 580,000 bpd, the IEA noted.

A few months ago, the firm forecast millions of barrels per day of losses in production and supply from the Russian market.

Still, the EU embargo on Russian imports of crude oil and products from February 2023 is expected to cause further falls in Russian oil production, as around 1 million bpd of products and 1. 3 million bpd of crude oil are expected to reach new homes, said the firm.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice. com

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