In May 2020, after the police killing of George Floyd, an American black man, black American protests and riots “Black Lives Matter” devastated the United States, the United Kingdom and several European countries. Although Floyd’s murder served as a quick catalyst for the riots, many researchers recommend that the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic crisis play a deeper and more important role in creating the situations that led to the protests.
There has been a steady build-up of protests in the United States and Britain since 2011, which, as Peter Turchin and other scientists suggest, is the result of a predictable 50-year cycle of sociopolitical dynamics that culminated in a wave of violence. This cycle has been known through Russian experts in cliodynamics and structural-demographic theory, who in 2010 predicted the existing course of events and have now been able to verify their mathematical models.
In 2010, Russian-American scientist Peter Turchin used structural-demographic theory (TSD) to wait for the dynamics of sociopolitical situations in the United States and Western Europe until 2020. Su style is expected to over the next decade, political instability and a building In a new article, Turchin, in collaboration with Andrey Korotayev, another prominent TDS specialist at HSE University , conducted a retrospective assessment of the 2010-12 forecasts and showed the accuracy of the findings. The article published in the journal PLoS ONE (The Structural-Demographic Forecast 2010 for the decade 2010-2020: a retrospective evaluation).
The following technique applies: the postulated ancient speculation is reshaped into a mathematical model and then calculated. An express prediction is extracted from the model, which is then tested on genuine ancient events, so mathematical models can be modified, subtle, and therefore provide accurate predictive analysis.
Historians are helped through complex systems theory, originally developed through physicists to describe non-linear chaotic processes, which can be used to model and forecast weather, for example. American historian and sociologist Jack Goldstone, the first researcher to apply a mathematical method Apparatus of complex systems theory to ancient processes. He developed the structural-demographic theory (TED), which allowed taking into account the multiple forces that interact in society that exert pressure on it and lead to riots, revolutions and civil wars.
Using the TDS, Goldstone has established that each and every primary hit or revolution is preceded by an increase in fertility. As a result, the length of the population exceeds its economic opportunities for self-sufficiency. There is a crisis, the popular of the life of the people. the population descends drastically and riots begin; at the same time, the state loses its political flexibility and the elites separate, some of them sided with protesters opposed to the existing system; there is a coup d’eer, accompanied by an explosion of violence and a civil war.
Later, Goldstone’s concepts were resumed and evolved through Russian scientists and academics, adding only Peter Turchin, but also Sergei Nefyodov, Leonid Grinin and HSE professor Andrei Korotayev. They implemented their progress in expecting socio-historical dynamics in the United States and Great Britain, as well as in other Western European countries.
Structural demographic theory 4 main elements:
The state (size, income, expenses, debts, legitimacy of power, etc. );
population (size, age structure, urbanization, level, social optimism, etc. );
elites (number and structure, existing income and welfare resources, ostentatious consumption, internal competence, social norms);
factors of instability (radical ideologies, terrorists and movements, acts of violence, riots and revolutions).
Goldstone himself has also proposed strategies for operationalizing and measuring them, as well as a comprehensive indicator predicting long-term disruptions, a political stress indicator (PSI, or political stress indicator). Retrospective studies have shown that the French Revolution, the Civil War and the crisis of the Ottoman Empire were out of the ordinary, therefore, if the mathematical style shows the expansion of the curve in any period of time in the long term, then we can speak with confidence about the sociopolitical instability that will come at this time in this region.
In terms, the equation for the calculation looks like this:
MMP – EMP – SFD
Here, MMP means forward-looking mass mobilization, EMP stands for prospective elite mobilization, and SFD represents the state’s point of fiscal misery in the state. Each of the signs of the equation is calculated separately using many other sociodemographic variables and mathematical tools, adding differential equations.
In a new paper, scientists extracted data from the Transnational Time Series Data Archive (CNTS) knowledge base on the two hundred maximum vital signs of more than two hundred countries around the world from 1815 to the day of today. In particular, he has been interested in knowledge of anti-government protests, riots, government crises, revolutions and purges (although for the United States and Britain, there is little knowledge to provide reliable statistical research into the last two phenomena). The Political Violence Database (USPVD) and New York Times publishing files were also used to correctly determine and classify data.
It turned out that in the United States for more than 10 years, the number of anti-government protests has increased dramatically and the number of street riots has increased significantly. It is vital to note that the forecast made at the time is totally at odds with existing trends and may not be a mere extrapolation, since from the early 1980s to 2010, the point of social unrest remained constantly low.
It is vital to note that the 2020 occasions have no effects or adjust the effects of the simulation in any way. All transparent trends in the United States, Britain and several European countries have slowly but steadily increased everywhere. The COVID-19 pandemic, of course, also had an impact, and was highly unlikely to be expected on the basis of ancient knowledge (although virologists and epidemiologists have written about the potential danger of coronaviruses in clinical journals since the But epidemics of harmful diseases occur occasionally in times of social crisis and hit the most vulnerable sectors of society (as has happened in the United States) , which only further mobilizes the masses and takes them to the streets.
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