LONDON
As Russian risk moves ever closer to northern Europe, Sweden and Finland, the Kremlin is already engaged in a hybrid war that will hit the Scandinavian countries hard.
The alleged sabotage of Russia’s Nord Steam fuel pipelines in the Baltic Sea, as well as illegal drone flights over strategic spaces in Norway via a Russian citizen, are part of President Vladimir Putin’s war against Scandinavian countries.
Russia’s war against Ukraine that began on February 24 prompted Sweden and Finland to reconsider their security arrangements and apply for NATO membership, despite Moscow’s threats.
Magnus Petersson, a foreign relations professor at Stockholm University, told Anadolu Agency that the military’s risk to Finland and Sweden is “much weaker now” than when Russia first attacked Ukraine in February.
Similarly, Henri Vanhanen, foreign policy adviser to Finland’s National Coalition Party, which holds the third-largest number of seats in parliament, told Anadolu Agency that Moscow lately “struggles” in its efforts to “occupy Ukraine” and that maximum of its military resources and defense functions were involved in the ongoing war.
Therefore, he argued, Russia is unlikely to threaten a primary with NATO and embark on the path of escalation.
It would be “an absolutely different war than what we’re seeing right now,” he said, adding that such an escalation would increase the threat of nuclear war “at some point and I don’t think the Russians are in a position to get through. “down there. ” way. “
Russia can simply ‘sabotage critical infrastructure’
Vanhanen said the Nordic countries are vulnerable to Russia’s covert hybrid warfare operations and that the Kremlin will most likely sabotage critical infrastructure, adding food and water distribution, electricity, logistics and communications.
“Now, those are kind of a backbone of each and every evolved society and if you need to sabotage the functions, it will cause turmoil and uncertainty in a society,” Vanhanen said.
According to Vanhanen, it was the Kremlin’s approach of seeking to cut off Western army aid to Ukraine that played a “decisive” role in Ukraine’s efforts to repel Russia’s “illegal attack. “
Finland, which has a border with Russia of more than 1,300 kilometers (more than 800 miles), has stepped up surveillance of maritime traffic and infrastructure, while Norway and Denmark have increased security around their oil and fuel sites.
According to NATO, hybrid warfare has long been used to destabilize adversaries, with technological growth, its speed and intensity have increased over the years.
He said earlier this year that “counter-hybrid teams” would provide assistance to allies, but also said countries deserve to protect themselves individually.
Military threat
Moscow has threatened that Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO would be negative for its security and that of Europe.
“I think I’ve been running with those threats for a long time,” Petersson said.
According to the professor, Russian threats have led Western countries, along with Sweden and Finland, to increase their defense budgets. However, he argued that Moscow would use covert strategies opposed to the two countries such as “cyberattacks, use of propaganda on the Internet, etc. , etc. “
Norway announced earlier this week its goal of preparing its army in response to the Russian-Ukrainian war and the “grave security situation in Europe. “
“We are in the highest serious security policy in decades,” Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said in a statement.
Vanhanen that Finland is well ready to oppose all kinds of threats, adding threats from the army.
“We are well prepared for other scenarios, we don’t see them as the most likely at the moment,” he said.
Store under pressure that there is no indication that Russia would escalate its war with other countries, but that the heightened tension meant that “we are more exposed to threats, intelligence and influence. “
Terrorist threats
Once in NATO, Finland and Sweden adopt a more comprehensive technique on other types of threats, adding terrorism, Vanhanen said, referring to a recent trilateral agreement with Turkey.
Türkiye, a longtime NATO member, has voiced objections to offers from the countries’ clubs, criticizing them for tolerating and even supporting terrorist groups.
“I think either country has listened to Turkey, either country is in a position to stick to the agreement reached in Madrid on trilateral cooperation in the fight against terrorism,” Vanhanen said.
Both before and after NATO entry, it will be to update the anti-terrorism law and give government officials more equipment to combat possible terrorist movements, “especially when it comes to those that Turkey has mentioned, for example, the PKK,” he added.
The PKK is listed as a terrorist organization across Turkey, the EU and the United States, and is responsible for the deaths of 40,000 people, including women, young people and children.
The trilateral agreement the countries signed in June stipulates that Finland and Sweden will not provide aid to the YPG/PYD, the Syrian branch of the PKK, and the Fetullah terrorist organization (FETO), the organization of the failed 2016 coup attempt in Turkey. The agreement also states that Ankara provides its full assistance to Finland and Sweden in the face of threats to their national security.
NATO’s 30 permanent allies will have to approve any expansion of the bloc.
Russia sees NATO as a threat
After years of Swedish and Finnish neutrality, NATO’s expansion on Russia’s doorstep has triggered stern warnings from Moscow that its club could have “serious military and political consequences. “
Putin has even demanded in the afterlife that NATO withdraw from all ex-Soviet countries and that no new country join the bloc.
In reaction to this decision, he promised to “restore the balance of the army” by strengthening its defense position in the Baltic Sea region, by deploying nuclear weapons.
Earlier this year, Russian officials said NATO’s willingness to settle for Sweden and Finland would “destabilize” and increase tensions in the region.