Now we have an alarming piece of news – between surprise and amazement – that the Western media disdains to mention. Even if they consider us all acutely. Moscow has hosted two days of rapprochement talks between Turkey, Syria and Iran. Ostensibly, the rally is about reconciliation between Turkey and Syria, but in fact it looks like a regional celebrity holiday with implications that grow bigger in the region and beyond. The absentees are equally significant: the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia and others. This festival of laconic debates has largely been overlooked because no one expects anything from it, anything concrete or a change of balance. After all, this is not a summit of leaders, but a gathering of key ambassadors.
So why deserve Moscow’s concern? A glorified theater? The Kremlin wants to show that it can still create a mini-platform of five regional powers. Putin wants a public relations coup with his domestic audience. In fact, all attractive plans require it. This is a credible explanation. But a closer look suggests deeper waters. Let’s look back at the composition: Turkey is the only member of NATO and the only member of NATO, facing a united bloc of its rivals. So now let’s ask ourselves why should Erdogan subject his most sensible envoys to such unnecessary adversarial activity? He has national elections in mid-May, which he is expected to lose in a battle just after the earthquake debacle destroyed his popular support. So he’s nervous. He wants to know what his foreign rivals could be up to behind his back at this critical moment. In other words, the meeting will probably rarely be such a nominal photo session. It is about what the enemy bloc, Russia/Iran/Syria, can definitely promise and threaten negatively, what it demands and what it offers, just when it is most vulnerable.
His moment of vulnerability, by the way, spans not only the pre-election era, but also the weeks and months that follow, during which the result will inevitably undermine his legitimacy. We can assume that it will not pass smoothly; in fact, it won’t happen at all, even if it is so unpopular that the country will be convinced it has lost. As this article has argued in the past, Erdogan cannot leave the force because the opposition will purge his family, his party, his oligarchs, the media, the judiciary and virtually the entire civil service elite because they are corrupt. Therefore, he will look for tactics to cheat the vote, “share” the force or illegally pass himself off as some kind of éminence grise like Ivanishvili in Georgia. Either way, the country won’t like this, because it knows it deserves to have lost strength. Expect instability, including new elections, confusion over force headquarters, divisions within the military, capital flight and more. The Moscow meetings were therefore not just about the era leading up to the May elections, but also the era of the interregnum that follows, during which Erdogan will want all the help he can get. And when he will still be vulnerable.
So what’s the Russia/Iran/Syria (RIS) bet on Moscow?Praise for Erdogan would be the most sensible on the list. “It’s not easy for you to hold fair elections or give up force if you lose. “The West, in fact, is its true allies in this regard. There is no nonsense about human rights or freedom of the press. We can help you maintain strength indefinitely. In fact, we would prefer it, because it would not allow Turkey to stay completely. component of the Western bloc. ” The RIS can help by flooding the country with black money, reasonable vegetable fuel, or reasonable oil from Russian or Iraqi pipelines (Iran can supply the latter through its Shiite components in Iraq). In addition, much of Iran’s oil is smuggled into the country. country. through Iraq). In fact, Erdogan has already begun to corrupt the electorate by providing them with various economic benefits such as reasonable herbal fuel and electric power and inflationary increases in the minimum wage, etc.
Therefore, RIS will offer compliments. To which Erdogan will reply: maybe I will be happy with it, but I do not want him to keep me in power. And this is where the difficult negotiations begin. The carrot may not work, so what’s the stick?What can they threaten to do against him? And what do they want in exchange for his resignation?Erdogan is especially vulnerable to the 3 to 4 million refugees Turkey hosts, mainly from Syria. He would like to send them back to spaces in his own country. Turks feel defeated through those measures (sound familiar?), especially at a time when the Turkish economy is plummeting sharply. In the run-up to the election, Erdogan would like to make very visual gestures of repatriation to spaces in Syria. Russia, Iran, and Syria can make this complicated by bombing those spaces. Rivals (RIS) can do worse. They can cut off oil supplies to Russia and Iraq for short periods before the election.
These are not long-term threats. They can’t be. Russia wants Türkiye’s oil revenues, as does Iraq. But, at the right time, sudden debacles can darken the national psychology ahead of elections. Normally, Erdogan counters RIS threats by being friendly to NATO or the EU, but here he is somewhat caught. At this point, the West would prefer that he lose cleanly, give up force, allow the return of true democracy, release all political prisoners, etc. This is where Erdogan’s madness lies. He cannot ask the West to counter RIS threats because the West is content to see him go. Therefore, you may have to give in to certain demands of the RIS. Now let’s take a look at those requests, not what you would believe at first glance. For example, Erdogan will not publicly refuse to sell Bayraktar drones to Ukraine, even if Moscow demands it. He will not close the Bosphorus to NATO ships. He will not allow an authorized influx of cash from Turkish banks. . . until well after the election. So that? Because the United States will sanction those banks, the electorate will face a banking debacle along with existing inflation and a collapsing economy. Remember, if Erdogan maintains force through electoral fraud, if he maintains force for any period of time, serious unrest will occur. The country knows that it is unpopular and will have to lose.
So what situations will the RIS demand that Erdogan accept?Yes, but only as part of a process, like the Saudis, for Assad to slowly rehabilitate himself. Still, it’s a vile idea. . . Unfortunately, welcome to the region. RIS will ask Ankara to stop helping Azerbaijan. This column has written extensively about how Erdogan is linking up with Central Asia and reviving the Turkish Silk Road through Azerbaijan. (When you’re a populist like Erdogan, you have to feed the population with imperial dreams instead of food and freedoms. )In this case, Tehran and Moscow need Erdogan to prevent fishing in their backyards. What they, Iran and Russia, don’t need are pipelines and industrial routes from Stans that would bypass the geographical strangulation between Iran and Russia over Central Asia and open freely to the world. Erdogan has gained great popularity with this. He would possibly have to slow down his strategic maneuver for a while.
As Iran nears a nuclear breakout, Israel is preparing a first strike, the main points of which the Israelis will supposedly not share with the United States due to leaks from American intelligence. For a possible Israeli air attack on Iranian nuclear centers, it would be necessary to conduct at least some overflights through Turkish territory. RIS would prefer that Ankara not allow such access to the Israelis. The choice of direction through Iraqi skies is controlled through the United States, and Washington would certainly wish to be informed of this initiative, if it did not take part in it. In short, they have the right of veto. A previous article analyzed the recent Saudi rapprochement with Iran, noting that the Saudis, believing that Iranian nuclear weapons are inevitable, want promises of nuclear defense from the United States, which the United States avoids because Washington no longer wishes to protect or inspire fossil fuels. resources overseas.
In other words, the continued U. S. withdrawal from the Middle East and the Saudis’ return to Iran leave Israel in suspense. The Turks need Iran to have nuclear weapons. Neither does Israel. Erdogan will allow Israeli jets to attack Iran, unless the RIS can triumph over him.