Russia, South Africa and a ‘redesigned global order’: The Kremlin’s hearts and minds machine is steaming ahead

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Russia and South Africa pledged this week to maintain bilateral relations and will embark on joint military training next month, coinciding with the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, visited Pretoria as part of an African tour, his moment since the invasion, which would also take him to Botswana, Angola and Eswatini.

Diplomatic analysts told CNBC that the excursion is primarily a confirmation of Russia’s “non-isolation,” projecting a message that despite Western sanctions and efforts to exclude it from the global stage, key strategic alliances remain in place.

On February 24, 2022, shortly after the invasion of Ukraine, South Africa suggested that Russia immediately withdraw its forces from Ukraine. But since then the tone has changed. South Africa is one of 15 African countries that will abstain in the upcoming UN vote in March to condemn Russia’s war of aggression.

In a joint press conference alongside Lavrov on Monday, South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said it would have been “simplistic and infantile” to demand Russia’s withdrawal during their meeting, and alluded to the “massive transfer of arms” that has since occurred from Western powers to support Ukraine’s military efforts.

Pandor also praised the “growing bilateral economic relations” between Pretoria and Moscow, as well as “political, economic, social, defense and security cooperation. “

He highlighted the daily multilateral tasks of the BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), made up of major emerging economies, in a scenario in the process of conversion.

South Africa will host BRICS this year, and the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has reported that Pretoria could use its presidency to push for the admission of new members to expand the bloc’s presence, challenging the dominance of the world’s superpowers.

“The current global geopolitical tensions clearly signal the need to create institutional mechanisms that will have the stature form and global trust to promote and support global peace and security — BRICS should play a proactive role in emerging processes and ensure it is part of a redesigned global order,” Pandor said.

Although he called for a “peaceful end to the war through international relations and negotiations”, he did not directly condemn the invasion.

South Africa will host a joint naval training with Russia and China between February 17 and 27, and Pandor responded to their considerations by arguing that organizing such operations with “friends” “is part of the course. “herbal relations”, criticizing the idea that only certain countries are appropriate partners.

Steven Gruzd, head of the African governance and international relations program at the South African Institute of International Affairs, told CNBC on Tuesday that timing of the joint exercise, dubbed “Mosi,” which “smokes” in the Tswana language, would “attract foreign attention. “He also expressed suspicions that this “could be deliberate. “

“One can obviously choose the timing of these things and to have chosen the timing that it would be right on the anniversary, maybe, is South Africa’s way of saying ‘look, we are a sovereign independent country and we will conduct our foreign policy the way that we see fit, and the way that enhances our interests, and we won’t be told and scalded by anybody’,” Gruzd said.

South Africa has come under pressure from its Western partners to align itself with their opposition to the invasion of Ukraine and has fiercely refused to be “bullied,” in Pandor’s words, into taking sides.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Monday that “the United States is committed to any country . . . is exercising with Russia while Russia is waging a brutal war against Ukraine. “

Analysts point out that Russia’s greatest appeal to many African countries lies in its ability to present itself as an anti-imperialist resistance, exploiting popular resentment toward countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and France because of the continent’s history of Western oppression.

Eleonora Tafuro, senior research fellow at the Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia Centre at Italy’s Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), told CNBC on Tuesday that despite its small trade relationship with the African continent compared to that of the European Union, Russia has been able to capitalize on “anti-imperialist sentiments” and perceived “patronizing attitudes” from the West.

In his opening remarks on Monday, Pandor highlighted the contribution 30 years ago of the Russian Federation (then part of the Soviet Union) to the anti-component movement in South Africa that would become the basis of the ANC.

“It is ironic that this specific detail takes advantage of the Kremlin’s appearance to justify this war of aggression against Ukraine,” Tafuro said, noting that there was a lack of empathy among African states towards Ukrainians, victims of imperialism.

“I think Russia is very skillfully using information and propaganda to build this narrative, but this narrative is successful because there is already this deep culture of anti-western sentiment in countries like South Africa, and this has to do with their own history of being victims of imperialism.”

Russia’s growing influence was evident in recent weeks during protests in Burkina Faso, with demonstrators condemning France and regional bloc ECOWAS while waving Russian flags.

“There is no doubt that discontent is developing with France in its former playing fields and that Russia is thriving in chaos, filling the void as France retreats,” Gruzd said.

He also noted that Russian social media operations, in addition to pro-Kremlin messages, also depend on “existing flaws, such as anti-French sentiment or anti-gay sentiment,” and rivalries between political blocs.

“Countries like South Africa have really bought into Russia’s narrative that it is an anti-colonial power, that it supports the little man, that having one superpower and having that superpower being the U.S. is not good for the world, that there needs to be multipolarity, that there needs to be alternate sources of power and power distribution,” Gruzd explained.

“It resonates, and it resonates strongly, and it resonates strongly in countries that have been marginalized by the West. “

During the month, Lavrov, China’s new Foreign Minister Qin Gang and U. S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have embarked on tours of Africa, and Yellen will meet with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa this week.

U. S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also visited the continent last year, while U. S. President Joe Biden hosted a U. S. -Africa summit in December, seen as an effort to regain some of Washington’s lost influence. China in the last decade or more.

Both Tafuro and Gruzd are under pressure so that the whirlwind of diplomatic activity is not perceived as a “fight for Africa”, as the continent’s negotiating strength means it now has a seat at the table.

“I think from an African perspective, we would prefer not to be classified simply as a terrain where wonderful powers can compete, but to recognize that African governments and societies are assets in their own right and therefore not a pawn in anyone’s hands. game. game, it’s the players sitting around the board,” Gruzd said.

Tafuro also argued that comparisons to the Cold War or the simplification of diplomatic visits as part of the resource festival do take into account the major paradigm shift taking place lately.

“Sometimes we just forget that these African countries have their own agency and ultimately it’s up to them to decide whether the relationship with China, Turkey or Russia is worthwhile and whether it is beneficial for them to keep, for instance, a balanced approach, like doing business with everyone who wants to do business,” she said.

“It’s also up to them to have their relationships with those external actors. “

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