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Event analysis
Two weeks after Ukraine introduced its marvelous attack, Russian forces have recovered from the initial surprise and are looking to use the expanding war to their advantage on the battlefield.
By Anatoly Kurmanaev
Anatoly Kurmanaev reported from Berlin
Two weeks after Ukraine’s marvelous incursion into Russia, Kremlin forces have slowed their advance, while the hardening of the front line in Russia’s Kursk region paves the way for the next phase of a war with major political stakes in game for both sides.
Russian President Vladimir V. Putin has promised a decisive reaction to the first invasion of Russian territory since World War II. But so far the backlash has focused on containing the incursion rather than reversing it, raising the question of what the exhausted Russian army is willing to threaten to drive out the invaders, or if it is capable of doing so.
The unplanned invasion of Kursk has highlighted the Russian military’s persistent intelligence, as well as Moscow’s lack of combat-ready reserves in a war fought along a 750-mile front. Ukraine’s immediate progress has also disappointed global belief in Russia’s slow but unstoppable invasion. marching to victory in a war of attrition.
As Ukrainian forces advanced, videos showing teams of surrendered Russian conscripts and border guards stunned many in Russia, undermining Putin’s narrative that the war in Ukraine was being fought from afar through well-paid volunteers.
Still, the war in Russia’s border regions is still in its early stages, and the current speed of the incursion into Kursk gives Putin time to calibrate his response. Rather than weakening the Kremlin’s grip on power, the invasion could simply provoke more Russian citizens to rally around the flag, analysts say.
The invasion of Kursk “is a blow to the Kremlin’s reputation,” Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian political scientist, wrote on social media on Tuesday. But “this is unlikely to lead to a significant increase in social or political discontent among the population, nor to lead to a rebellion of the elites. “
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