Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Friday that its recent army training circular with its close ally, Belarus, which has a border with Ukraine, was aimed at deterring potential warring parties from “escalation and provocations. “
Meanwhile, Kyiv continued to monitor the border and downplayed any attacks.
Russia used Belarus as a launching pad for its invasion of Ukraine last February and the deployment of joint forces in Belarus in October may indicate that President Vladimir Putin will launch a new attack from its northern neighbor in the coming months. The two countries will hold joint trainings from January 16 to February 1.
The joint Russian-Belarusian trainings are of a “defensive nature” and aim to ensure the security of Belarus and Russia, the director of the current CIS branch of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Alexey Polishchuk, told Russian news firm TASS.
“They are intended to discourage our potential adversaries from escalation and provocation. We have a whole with our Belarusian allies on this issue,” he said.
Polishchuk also said any attempt to attack Belarus is “doomed to failure. “
On Thursday, TASS reported that the Russian Defense Ministry told the media that Oleg Salyukov, the commander-in-chief of the Russian ground forces, had traveled to Belarus to communicate with commanders of the Joint Regional Group of Forces to read about the accommodation of the army workers’ corps and other conditions.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko showed on Tuesday that the regional troop organization had been trained to his army.
However, Kyiv expresses fear that Belarus could simply be used as a launching pad for some other invasion, or that the country will sign up for war.
Lieutenant General Serhii Naiev, commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told a news conference on Thursday that Belarus has enough troops for a new ground invasion of Ukraine.
“To date, the scenario on the territory of Belarus poses a direct risk of floor action against Ukraine,” he said, adding that Ukraine remains in contact with Western allies, especially Poland and the United States, on intelligence matters.
Naiev said Ukrainian troops feel calm and their defense capabilities.
Russia’s activities in Belarus keep Ukraine on high alert, as aircraft belonging to the Russian armed forces have been transported into the country in recent weeks. Tensions escalated towards the end of last year when Belarus accused Ukraine of shooting down a missile on its border.
Photos from Reuters and other media outlets showed Ukrainian troops taking part in training this week near the border with Belarus.
Peter Caddick-Adams, Director of Defence
“Putin and Lukashenko met recently. Belarus is by no means in a position to take the floor because ‘army special operation’ is incredibly unpopular and an intervention opposed to Ukraine would most likely galvanize a civil war,” Caddick-Adams said. A small number of Belarusian volunteers are fighting for Ukraine. Any internal turmoil in Belarus would lead to a Russian invasion, which Luka already has. “
“I think the Russian deployment is about tapping into Kyiv’s reserves and making sure there’s a really extensive force keeping an eye on the north, which can’t fight anywhere else. Thus, Moscow “repairs” a vital component of Kyiv’s fighting force without actually participating in the battle. “Added.
The historian said Russia can use the Belarusian garrison to train recruits and prepare them for deployment elsewhere.
“Ukraine would be reluctant to attack Russian bases in Belarus with drones, cruise missiles, etc. , at the risk of provoking Minsk.
“This is a win-win scenario for Putin, and it provides him with a strategic theater reserve, as long as Belarusian force is not used. “
Reuters also reported that the terrain near the border would make it difficult for another attack by Belarus. Bursting river banks, thick dust and waterlogged fields can be seen Thursday for miles around Ukraine’s northwestern border with Belarus. Reuters also reported that the Ukrainian army recruits other local people willing to protect their communities.
Serhiy Khominskyi, spokesman for the region’s Volyn Territorial Defense Brigade, said beavers make the terrain impassable.
“Normally, when they build their dams, other people destroy them, however, they didn’t do it this year because of the war, so now there is water everywhere,” he said.
Update 13/13/23, 11:13 AM a. m. ET: This article has been updated with the observation of an Army analyst.
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