The Russia-Ukraine war has evolved over the past 26 months, as both militaries have deployed new technologies, followed new methods, and attempted to defeat their adversaries. The clash began with a full-scale invasion by the Russian army, which went in the face of an unwavering Ukrainian defense that stopped it. This has led to a grueling struggle of attrition in southern and eastern Ukraine, with Russia slowly making progress. Last summer, the Ukrainian army introduced its counteroffensive, which achieved only limited good fortune in the face of Russia’s thick impeding belts. As the standoff enters its third summer of fighting, some other replacement is expected, with Russia renewing its offensive and Ukraine adapting its defensive strategy accordingly.
Russian forces are lately engaged in escalation operations that are preparing the ground for a new offensive that will most likely succeed with full force in early summer. These set-up operations are accompanied by a large number of missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, with a particular focus on electrical installations. The goals of these measures are twofold: to erode the morale of Ukrainians and to degrade Ukraine’s growing defense trade base. Without electricity, Ukraine’s defense industries will not be able to expand and deploy the drones and critical electronic warfare apparatus that its military wants to develop. of this summer’s offense.
On the ground, Russia is concentrating efforts to capture the town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast. Russian progress in this region is constrained by the status quo of a Ukrainian defensive belt connected to several “fortress cities. “heavily fortified by the Ukrainians and would be difficult for Russian forces to capture without first securing Chasiv Yar. The capture of this city would provide the Russians with a base of operations to attack Kostyantynivka, the city that manages the southern limit of the Ukrainian defensive belt. They would also be within walking distance of Druzhkivka, another key city. Russian forces would then break through the southern part of Ukraine’s defensive belt, allowing them to capture significant territory in the region. A Ukrainian commander under further pressure stressed the importance of holding Chasiv Yar, saying the Russians were looking to capture it by May 9.
In parallel to those actions, Russia is also strengthening its forces, resupplying its frontline teams with personnel and equipment. In addition, the Russian defense trade base is sourcing new ammunition and equipment, temporarily putting key technologies in the hands of its soldiers. In addition, efforts are underway to repair damaged cars, especially those targeted by Ukrainian precision drone strikes, which damage cars but do not destroy them.
In order for Ukraine to remain opposed to this offensive, it needs a change of strategy. Ukraine, like Russia, loosely follows Soviet doctrine, which relies heavily on artillery. In this doctrine, infantry and armored elements are primarily intended for artillery elements. , located in key positions. The artillery then targets its warring parties in coordination with drones, electronic warfare weapons, and forward observers; They can then cause significant damage and force the enemy to retreat from an area.
However, since Ukraine is running out of artillery ammunition, it will have to replace and adopt a new strategy, relying on tactics more in line with the US military’s doctrine. This replacement emphasizes defensive moves that block enemy advances, while maintaining the ability to pass temporarily. to the offensive, which would allow Ukraine to punch holes in extended Russian lines. Such an offensive would not only target the weakest parts of the Russian offensive, but could also involve a move towards the Crimean peninsula. This would allow Ukrainian forces to encircle Russian forces. , disrupt Russian momentum, and help Ukraine regain the initiative on the battlefield. It is vital to note that those tactics rely less on artillery and more on maneuver elements such as armor and infantry.
DONETSK OBLAST, UKRAINE – FEBRUARY 17: The Ukrainian army forms a BMP infantry fighting vehicle on February 17. [ ] February 17, 2024 in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Photo via Yan Dobronosov/Global Images Ukraine Getty Images)
This replacement in the Ukrainian strategy is reflected in the content of the recent aid systems of Germany and the United States. While the packages included ammunition and other parts useful for a defensive posture, they also contained parts used primarily for offensive operations. These assistance programmes included extensive demining equipment, the addition of remote-controlled demining systems, mine-resistant ploughs and demolitions to remove impediments. These elements would allow the Ukrainians to penetrate deep into Russian lines.
As the war continues to drag on, both sides attempt to gain tactical benefits by leveraging each other’s strengths. Russian forces have a larger fighting force and abundant ammunition, providing them with significant firepower for a new offensive. On the other hand, the Ukrainian army has established a formidable defensive line that will pose demanding situations to the advance of Russian forces. However, in the absence of artillery shells, Ukraine will have to change its strategy, maintaining its defensive posture while counterattacking to break through Russian lines. Armies will continue to evolve their methods to reflect battlefield dynamics related to an ever-changing global socio-political climate.
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