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By Florence Tan and Roslan Khasawneh
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Global demand for gasoline and diesel is expected to return to prepandemic levels until the end of next year, a resurgence of COVID-19 cases will maintain fluctuating intake, several industry leaders said Monday.
The road to recovery is likely to be complicated and the electricity sector is ready to cope with concussions with tight refinery production and enough garage to cope with excess materials when they arise, authorities said.
“A momentary wave or an uninterrupted series of epidemics that have an effect on the isArray call. . . the highest likely maximum surprise that the oil market will have to take into account in the next 12 to 24 months,” Giovanni Serio, global head of studies at commodity trader Vitol, said at the Asia-Pacific virtual oil conference.
Global demand for oil fell to a record 22 million barrels consistent with the day (bpd) in April, while another four billion people opposed the coronaviruses, said Arif Mahmood, executive vice president and general manager of Petronas in Malaysia.
And demand is expected to fall from 8. 1 million b/d this year to 91. 9 million b/d, the International Energy Agency said.
However, any resurgence of COVID-19 during the winter in the northern hemisphere can have another impact, said Chris Midgley, head of S
“There is a genuine threat to that. Lately we’re seeing an increase in infection rates,” Midgley said.
Serio de Vitol said the interruptions of recovery will be accompanied by a strong field of manufacturers and refiners to slow down the materials, as well as in a garage position for excess oil.
However, demand for jet fuel is not expected to recover much more, as air will take longer to return to pre-pandemic levels.
Malaysia’s gas and diesel intake has returned to 2019 levels, “the aircraft fuel market remains very depressed,” while the country’s borders are closed, Arif said.
“Even if (borders) are open, it will take time for the market to recover,” he said.
Global demand for jets has grown from about 10 million barrels a day to about 3 million barrels a day, said Ben Luckock, co-chief oil officer at commodities trading company Trafigura.
It is vital that refineries are in a position to move away from aircraft fuel production, said Mark Quartermajor, head of crude oil trade at Royal Dutch Shell, citing as an example the Pernis refinery of the Netherlands’ main oil company.
“We have all faced difficulties in the industry and the global source in the face of the loss of aircraft demand, and in this sense we have been helping our refinery to reorganize, by converting yields,” Quartermain said.
(Report through Florence Tan, Roslan Khasawneh and Shu Zhang; Editing via Tom Hogue)