Air recovery to and from China is accelerating in the first months of 2023 as more COVID-19 restrictions are eased and airlines respond by increasing installations in this market.
The Chinese government raised hopes of reopening overseas in December 2022 when it announced plans to remove a series of access restrictions. However, quick steps were still needed to implement adjustments for many categories of foreign lers.
More hurdles emerged in January 2023, when several other countries imposed new access requirements on travelers from China due to considerations of a backlog of COVID-19 infections. This has provoked strong complaints from the Chinese authorities.
More progress has been made in those spaces over the past month.
Many foreign governments have now gotten rid of their restrictions from China. And the Chinese government itself has taken some of the additional steps needed to achieve its reopening goals.
Airlines are announcing schedule adjustments to develop their capacity in China, and this trend is expected to increase in the coming months.
Summary:
The table below shows what has happened in the Chinese overseas market.
After almost 3 years at very low levels, capacity has been expanding since January 2023. For the week of March 20, 2023, weekly foreign seats reached 25. 9% of 2019 levels. This compares to a recovery rate of 9. 7% at the end of December 2022.
Much remains to be done, but the trend is encouraging.
The Chinese government announced at the end of December 2022 that it would remove all quarantine requirements as of January 8, 2023, a COVID-19 verification is still required before departure to enter. Maximum airline flight and cargo limits have also been abolished.
The government also said it would reinstate the processes for outbound travelers to apply for passports and foreign authorizations. It said it would resume issuing visas and access permits for travelers entering abroad, and also reinstate its transit visa waiver program.
However, the timing of some of these adjustments is unclear, namely with regard to the resumption of inbound tourist travel.
More clarity emerged in March 2023, when the government announced that it would resume issuing all categories of access visas from March 15, 2023. Visitor areas and categories that were visa-free before the COVID-19 pandemic also regained this status. .
In addition, multi-year visas issued before the pandemic shutdown will now be revered if they are still valid.
Importantly, the government allows Chinese travel teams to resume their visits to certain countries.
In early February 2023, the government allowed the sending of overseas excursion teams to a list of 20 countries. On March 15, 2023, another 40 countries were added.
However, there are some notable absences from the list: Australia, the United States, Japan and Korea.
The removal of many domestic anti-pandemic measures helped spur the accumulation of COVID-19 cases in China. This led many governments to introduce new regulations for entry from China in January 2023, measures that upset the Chinese government.
The precise one differed.
In most cases, they referred to pre-departure and also arrival tests. Some countries have included Hong Kong and Macau in their testing needs in China.
In terms of operating restrictions, some countries such as Japan and South Korea have required airlines to have Chinese frequencies at existing levels, with no new additions. Flights to China were also limited to certain transit airports.
However, most countries that have reintroduced entry restrictions from China have now gotten rid of those rules, or at least particularly reduced them, as the latest wave of COVID-19 in China has eased.
For example, the United States, Australia, Canada and some other governments have removed their pre-departure requirements for arrivals from China as of mid-March 2023. The United Kingdom will do so on April 5, 2023.
The Japanese government announced in late February 2023 that it would halt general arrival tests for travelers from mainland China and remove flight restrictions from March 1, 2023.
However, Japan will maintain certain measures. A pattern of 20% of China’s incoming passengers will continue to be subject to arrival testing. Pre-departure testing will also be required.
Not all countries have imposed new border measures for Chinese travelers due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Thailand, for example, said no more needs were needed.
Tourism is vital for Thailand and China, its largest market before the pandemic.
The graph below shows that capacity between the two countries is higher and is now at 23% of pre-pandemic levels.
The slow lifting of restrictions to and from China is an incredibly vital progression for the Asia-Pacific airline industry.
Some restrictions are still in place, adding the requirement of a pre-departure check before entering China. Some governments are also making sure to check the requirements for travelers from China.
These persistent restrictions will want to be removed to remove the remaining barriers in this important foreign market.
It would also ease some of the political tensions between China and other countries similar to the COVID pandemic and lessen the threat of retaliatory measures.
Expanding the list of countries allowed for the organization from China will be another vital step.
It also remains to be decided how temporary visas and other required documents can be processed and whether they can fulfill the initial application.
Beyond those problems, it is still transparent how soon demand for China’s exit will recover. After all, outbound tourism from Japan is slow to recover.
Overall, Chinese traffic is likely to continue to increase this year, although a full recovery is unlikely before the end of the year at the earliest.
Air recovery to and from China is accelerating in the first months of 2023 as more COVID-19 restrictions are eased and airlines respond by increasing installations in this market.
The Chinese government raised hopes of reopening overseas in December 2022 when it announced plans to remove a series of access restrictions. However, quick steps were still needed to implement adjustments for many categories of foreign lers.
More hurdles emerged in January 2023, when several other countries imposed new access requirements on travelers from China due to considerations of a backlog of COVID-19 infections. This has provoked strong complaints from the Chinese authorities.
More progress has been made in those spaces over the past month.
Many foreign governments have now gotten rid of their restrictions from China. And the Chinese government itself has taken some of the additional steps needed to achieve its reopening goals.
Airlines are announcing schedule adjustments to develop their capacity in China, and this trend is expected to increase in the coming months.
Summary:
The table below shows what has happened in the Chinese overseas market.
After almost 3 years at very low levels, capacity has been expanding since January 2023. For the week of March 20, 2023, weekly foreign seats reached 25. 9% of 2019 levels. This compares to a recovery rate of 9. 7% at the end of December 2022.
Much remains to be done, but the trend is encouraging.
China capacity, measured in weekly seats, 2019-2023
Source: CAPA – Aviation Center and OAG.
The Chinese government announced at the end of December 2022 that it would remove all quarantine requirements as of January 8, 2023, a COVID-19 verification is still required before departure to enter. Maximum airline flight and cargo limits have also been abolished.
The government also said it would reinstate processes for outgoing travelers to apply for passports and foreign authorizations. It said it would resume issuing visas and access permits for travelers entering abroad, and would also reinstate its transit visa waiver program.
However, the timing of some of these adjustments is unclear, namely with regard to the resumption of inbound tourist travel.
More clarity emerged in March 2023, when the government announced that it would resume issuing all categories of access visas from March 15, 2023. Visitor areas and categories that were visa-free before the COVID-19 pandemic also regained this status. .
In addition, multi-year visas issued before the pandemic shutdown will now be revered if they are still valid.
Importantly, the government allows Chinese travel teams to resume their visits to certain countries.
In early February 2023, the government allowed the sending of overseas excursion teams to a list of 20 countries. On March 15, 2023, another 40 countries were added.
However, there are some notable absences from the list: Australia, the United States, Japan and Korea.
The removal of many domestic anti-pandemic measures helped spur the accumulation of COVID-19 cases in China. This led many governments to introduce new regulations for entry from China in January 2023, measures that upset the Chinese government.
The precise one differed.
In most cases, they referred to pre-departure and also arrival tests. Some countries have included Hong Kong and Macau in their testing needs in China.
In terms of operating restrictions, some countries such as Japan and South Korea have required airlines to have Chinese frequencies at existing levels, with no new additions. Flights to China were also limited to certain transit airports.
However, most countries that have reintroduced entry restrictions from China have now gotten rid of those rules, or at least particularly reduced them, as the latest wave of COVID-19 in China has eased.
For example, the United States, Australia, Canada and some other governments have removed their pre-departure requirements for arrivals from China as of mid-March 2023. The United Kingdom will do so on April 5, 2023.
The Japanese government announced in late February 2023 that it would halt general arrival tests for travelers from mainland China and remove flight restrictions from March 1, 2023.
However, Japan will maintain certain measures. A pattern of 20% of China’s incoming passengers will continue to be subject to arrival testing. Pre-departure testing will also be required.
Not all countries have imposed new border measures for Chinese travelers due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Thailand, for example, said no more needs were needed.
Tourism is vital for Thailand and China, its largest market before the pandemic.
The graph below shows that capacity between the two countries is higher and is now at 23% of pre-pandemic levels.
Thailand-China capacity, measured in weekly round-trip seats, 2019-2023
Source: CAPA – Aviation Center and OAG.
The slow lifting of restrictions to and from China is an incredibly vital progression for the Asia-Pacific airline industry.
Some restrictions are still in place, adding the requirement of a pre-departure check before entering China. Some governments also make sure to check the needs of travelers from China.
These persistent restrictions will want to be removed to remove the remaining barriers in this important foreign market.
It would also ease some of the political tensions between China and other countries similar to the COVID pandemic and lessen the threat of retaliatory measures.
Expanding the list of countries allowed for the organization from China will be another vital step.
It also remains to be decided how temporary visas and other required documents can be processed and whether they can fulfill the initial application.
Beyond those problems, it is still transparent how soon demand for China’s exit will recover. After all, outbound tourism from Japan is slow to recover.
Overall, Chinese traffic is likely to continue to increase this year, although a full recovery is unlikely before the end of the year at the earliest.