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The ICOVID Chile team, an initiative led through the University of Chile, the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile and the University of Concepción, presented its new data factor on the research and knowledge of the dimensions proposed to monitor the pandemic in the country, with data received until Saturday, October 3, taught through an assembly with the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Science, Technology, Knowledge and Innovation. In this new report we see that the national infection rate is determined, the number of infected people per one hundred million inhabitants remains at 8. 1. This figure is eight times higher than the appropriate figure to guarantee safe deconfinement. The regions with mayor in rate of new instances son of Magellan (daily rate of 38. 0 consistent with one hundred million inhabitants); Los Lagos (33. 5 cups per day corresponding to one hundred million inhabitants); Arica and Parinacota (22. 6 cups per day per one hundred million inhabitants) and Aysén (13. 7 cups per day per one hundred million inhabitants). The lowest burden of new cases is found in the metropolitan region (3. 4 daily cups per 100,000) and in the Coquimbo region (5. 5 daily cups per 100,000 inhabitants), with all regions maintaining this yellow indicator. .
Mauricio Lima, a researcher in social sciences and education at the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, maintains that the ground is open for discussion to draw the general panorama of the epidemic in Chile. “For two months, the number of people inflamed nationwide has remained in the shadow of the 10 new newspapers consisting of one hundred million inhabitants and with transmission values (effective) close to 1. After the growth and expansion of the same period between May and July, these two months I think it is confusing to know that there is an epidemic,” Lima said.
Furthermore, by comparing the instances of new newspapers consistent with (1691) that triggered the first symptoms of COVID-19 between September 20 and 26 (an infection imaginable between September 6 and 24), with those that triggered their symptoms of the following week (1762) between September 27 and October 3 (an infection imaginable between September 13 and October 1) a non-significant increase in the National load averages 70 daily instances (5 per century). However, “there are regions with some other daily and statistically significant instances, such as Arica (41 percent), Valparaíso (47 percent), O’Higgins (31. 4 consistent with one hundred) and La Araucanía (58 consistent with one hundred). , because if part of this increase is attributed to national holidays, its effect is very heterogeneous in the country,” explains the report.
The engineer and professor at the University of Chile, Marcelo Olivares, explained that if he is well, he observes a temporary scenario of the pandemic due to the presence of signs of transmission, tests and hospital capacity at the national level, “the infectious load. “it is at a peak and will have to be taken with caution The promising national indices do not reflect the disparate scenario that is experienced in certain regions where transmission is expanding (Los Lagos and Valparaíso) and in others where hospital capacity is at its maximum. critical shadows (Biobío and O’Higgins) it will be necessary to make an effort in the traceability formula and take precautionary measures to avoid a recovery as quarantines are lifted,” said Olivares.
En tanto, la tasa de transmisión a nivel nacional se mantiene sobre 1 (1,09). Las mayores tasas de transmisión están en las regiones de La Araucanía (1,55) y Los Lagos (1,52), seguidos por Arica y Parinacota (1,47) y Tarapacá (1,44). Magallanes, después de haber presentado las más altas tasas de transmisión, tiene la menor tasa de reproducción efectiva de la epidemia (1,034) junto con la Región Metropolitana. Sin embargo, ambas están con R efectivo sobre 1, es decir, la epidemia sigue en crecimiento. La baja de Magallanes es más incierta por la mayor variabilidad de los números en una población pequeña, los próximos días permitirán clarificar esta tendencia.
Se ha visto que el aumento de la tasa de transmisión (R efectivo) se adelanta al aumento de carga de enfermedad, como lo muestra la situación en la Región de Los Lagos y es lo que podría ocurrir en Valparaíso en las próximas semanas, como resultado del aumento de la transmisión en esa región.
La epidemióloga y académica de la Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Catterina Ferreccio, explica que la carga de la enfermedad por COVID-19 sigue siendo preocupante a nivel nacional. “Aunque la Región Metropolitana ha logrado una cierta estabilidad de los casos nuevos diarios, en los últimos días la tasa de reproducción de la epidemia está sobre 1, lo que podría impactar el número de casos en las próximas semanas. Lo más preocupante son los aumentos en las regiones de los extremos norte y sur del país, así como los aumentos de tasa y carga de infección en Los Lagos. También requiere atención el gran aumento del R efectivo en Valparaíso, donde se podría registrar un aumento de casos en los próximos días”, explica Ferreccio.
The positivity of the check at the national point remains with a price compared to last week, with five% of the check carried out with a positive result. However, “regions where the indicator remains at worrying prices, especially in the regions of Magallanes and Aysén with prices of 27. 66 for the century and 10. 3 for the century, respectively. The regions of Antofagasta, Atacama, Coquimbo and metropolitan spaces are positive. They maintain low prices of positivity”, The and Experts detail.
Testing capacity is expanded nationwide, with 11. 64 tests per million inhabitants in the first part of the year. However, in the last week the sub-takes of PCR tests will be carried out in the regions of Tarapacá, Metropolitana, Maule and Aysén.
Consider 3 days as the maximum time between the onset of symptoms and the confirmation of the case to have effective viability and to be able to involve the pandemic, at the national level, the last weeks of August that occurred up to 40 years before for the cases. confirmed within this period. However, make sure the indicator stays on in September, for up to 35 hours the week of the national holidays.
Para entender el mecanismo de esta caída, se descompone el tiempo desde inicio de síntomas hasta la confirmación en dos partes: (i) Tiempo que tardó el paciente desde que tuvo síntomas hasta que consultó para realizar el diagnóstico (consulta temprana) y (ii) Tiempo desde la consulta hasta que se realizó el test PCR y se obtuvo el resultado (Tiempo examen y laboratorio).
“It should be noted that the inflow of money from the indicator will basically have to decrease in the temperature consultation indicator, perhaps due to the activity related to the National Holidays. It is to be hoped that this indicator responds that sustainability is of wonderful importance in the preparation of the plebiscite to be held on October 25,” the document adds.
The hospital capacity of the nationally incorporated care formula indicates an occupancy point of 77 for the critical room center. This indicator remains solid in the 75-80 diversity for the past few weeks. The proportion of ICU rooms occupied by COVID-19 patients between 60 and 65 years of age throughout the century, which is high, has decreased significantly from July to date. The weekly variation in hospitalizations is maintained, expanding the national point.
However, this quote is “aggregated at the national level, without knowledge about the critical scenario in certain regions. In particular, it should be noted that in the Biobío region the capacity is 87%, with 65% of the rooms occupied by COVID-19 patients. The O’Higgins domain is also showing high levels of use, with sustained strengthening in recent weeks. This, combined with the maximum transmission rate (R>1) and the infection burden of those regions, provides an alert that the formula is on time and continues to do so to the extent that it is unimaginable to control the transmission of the virus. “, the document concludes.