With a record number of travel expected over the Thanksgiving weekend, it appears life is getting back to normal. In fact, it is easy to assume that the Covid-19 pandemic is subsiding. But is this just an illusion? People are still inflamed by SARS-CoV-2. Covid-19 can still cause hospitalizations and deaths. New variants, such as BA. 2. 86 and the recently described JN. 1, are worrying. And let’s not worry about the flu virus and RSV. So, do you deserve to still be worried about traveling during the holidays?
There were 16,237 new Covid-19 hospitalizations in the United States in the week ending Nov. 11, 2023, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In that same week, the CDC also reported 544 Covid-19 deaths. Possibly it would seem high. And of course, we must not forget that each number constitutes a person. Those 544 deaths make up another 544 people who would not possibly celebrate Thanksgiving. But is this number high?
In the comparable week of 2022, the CDC reported 23,803 Covid-19 hospitalizations and 2,200 deaths. For the same week in 2021, the figures were 37,474 and 7,159. Obviously, the absolute numbers have decreased significantly. The death-to-hospitalization ratio also decreased significantly. During this week of 2021, the death-hospitalization ratio was 0. 19. In other words, about 19% of other people hospitalized with Covid-19 died. In 2022, this rate dropped to around 9%. Today, the rate is less than 3. 5%. In fact, this comparison isn’t perfect; A large number of points influence this measure, but it does suggest that the severity of the disease has decreased in recent years.
The short answer is no. We need to remain vigilant. In 2021, hospitalizations and deaths began increasing in late November and peaked in mid-January 2022. The same trend occurred between November 2022 and January 2023. We should expect that same pattern this winter. Hospitalizations and deaths probably will increase over the next two months. However, there is no immediate reason to believe that we will experience a surge comparable to the ones seen during the past two years.
Of course, a new variant could change the calculation entirely. We saw that happen when Omicron first emerged. Currently, two existing variants could be problematic. The BA.2.86 variant has caused concern since it was first identified in July, mainly because it differs significantly from its predecessor. And an offshoot of this variant, JN.1, also is being closely watched.
Unfortunately, knowledge about those variants is scarce and inconclusive. In a paper recently published in Nature, researchers reported that BA. 2. 86 has a high affinity for its receptor in human cells, suggesting that this virus can also be transmitted efficiently. These researchers also noted that BA. 2. 86 is not specifically resistant to existing antibodies, suggesting that so-called breakthrough infections would possibly not be a major problem. We know that the prevalence of BA. 2. 86 and JN. 1 remains low.
Although Covid-19 remains the most worrying respiratory infectious disease, we must avoid other respiratory infections. In its latest weekly flu report, the CDC reported that flu cases are emerging in many parts of the U. S. In the U. S. , as in general. Case at this time of year. The same applies to the displayed cases of RSV. However, current grades of influenza and RSV infections are not unusually high.
After the Thanksgiving holiday, we will almost certainly see an increase in Covid-19 cases. The same goes for the flu and RSV. That’s the bad news. The good news is that fundamental mitigation methods are still effective. Early evidence suggests the newest Covid-19 vaccine offers some coverage unlike existing SARS-CoV-2 variants, adding BA. 2. 86. Similarly, flu and RSV vaccines, while imperfect, will offer coverage against those viruses. Masks work. And washing your hands is a good idea. For others visiting at-risk friends or family, such as the elderly, basic mitigation methods like these can have a significant impact.
In some respects, we are beginning to enter a post-pandemic era. But Covid-19 has not gone away. It probably won’t go away. Instead, we need to live smartly with it.