It’s been 3 months since we started coming out of lockdown and, although we learned a lot about the virus in that period, the key issues I’ve discussed remain. What are the dangers of a momentary wave?And what deserves to be the right answer?
As for the first question, the debate remains more polarized than ever, with two widespread data misunderstandings: the first is that cases are now as high as in the first wave, which raises concern, and the time is that hospitalizations and deaths (and positivity tests) have declined much now that when we had a similar number of cases , leading to unwarranted complacency.
These comparisons of the number of cases (and positivity tests) are absolutely misleading, as many more tests are now performed than in the first wave, when they were only done in those hospitals, in the community.
Therefore, the number of cases recorded a massive understatement: the actual number of cases at that time is now known based on antibody testing. Approximately seven% or 4 million other people have had infection in England, and the daily number of cases can be inferred on this basis, while going back from hospitalizations and resulting deaths.
We are now in about 3000 cases a day in positive tests (the actual number is around 6000 in the ONS survey, with about 40,000 cases last week). This is approximately 3 times higher than the July minimum, but less than 5% of the results. March peak (when there were about one million instances consistent with the week).
Therefore, although in fact there is no desire to panic based on the number of cases, those who only look at hospitalizations and deaths would possibly also feel falsely reassured. At the beginning of the first wave, it took less than 3 weeks to build from 6,000 instances consistent with March 5 (five0 registered instances) to 300,000 instances consistent with March 23 (2000 registered instances). There was only one death on March 3, but a month later a thousand per day (with 3000 admissions).
The back is that the stage can be replaced very temporarily and there is no room for complacency. As hospitalizations and deaths build up quickly, it’s too late.
We may also be informed of the experience of other countries; again, the evidence is combined and can reach other conclusions depending on the countries in which it is located.
However, it is true that the countries that revel in the giant moments after the locks are lifted are those that have reveled in small first waves, so a large component of their population remains vulnerable to infection. cause only cases and not deaths (e. g. Romania, Israel and Morocco had many more deaths in their wave of moments (in progress) than in the first).
The opposite is also true (so far) in countries with first giant waves have smaller waves at the moment, and especially in cities like New York where about 20% of the population has developed antibodies, there is no wave at the moment. as collective immunity is expected to expand by at least 50% of the inflamed population, however, there is now evidence that many other people are immunized because they have developed immunity to other parts of the country. coronavirus, and this is not detected by regimen antibody tests.
However, there is also an exception to this experience: Iran, where a first giant wave of deaths was followed through a wave of moments even giantr (although approximately 20% of its inflamed population was the first wave), so we would possibly not be so sure of itself as to what will happen here.
Overall, the wave of instances at the moment began approximately 3 months after the first wave and Spain is probably the most productive consultant for us, having had a similar point of infections, deaths and immunity in its first wave. His wave of now began about a month ago, and hospitalizations and deaths also began to accumulate, but at a much slower pace than on the first wave.
There was also a primary war of words over Covid-19’s death, some falsely claim that Covid-19 is no more fatal than the flu. We now have much more evidence with genuine knowledge (rather than modeling) for the infection mortality rate. (IFR) – the% age of other inflamed people dying (not just those diagnosed as positive cases) – with maximum estimates between 0. 5 and 1. 0% – while influenza is less than 0. 1%.
Other evidence of this comes from New York, where about 20,000 died (an IFR of 0. 1% would mean that 20 million had become inflamed), but its population is 3 million.
IFR also varies greatly by age (in young and young adults, it is almost zero, while in those over 65 it is more than 5%) and depending on the country, due to differences in the proportion of older people, degrees of chronic illness and physical condition. Care.
In the UK, we now have intelligent evidence of the death certificate that the Covid-19 is the underlying cause of death in approximately 50,000 more people, not that they simply died ‘with Covid-19’, which is consistent with my own frontline delight in April. And the maximum of IFR ESTIMATES in the UK has been around one percent, however, it would possibly be part of that due to undetected infections.
So where are we now? It is transparent that our wave of moments began (approximately one month after Spain, as expected) with instances that now double in each and every one of seven to 8 days (while in the first wave began each and every 3 days, with the following deaths the same trend 3 weeks later . . ) Hospital admissions have also doubled in the following two weeks.
Across the UK, we are far from immune to herds (we will be around 15% at most), so we are about a third of the way through the epidemic.
Therefore, it is theoretically imaginable that another 100,000 other people can die from COVID-19 in a wave of moments in the coming months. Reports from SAGE and the Academy of Medical Sciences also advised 85,000 and 120,000 respectively in the worst moderate scenarios.
However, it is highly unlikely that the first wave will be repeated, as cases will accumulate more slowly due to measures implemented lately, adding social estating, masks, hand washing; massive construction of (but obviously insufficient) detection networks that provide local knowledge to target interventions earlier, and to track and isolate contacts, in addition to the fact that we have a higher point of immunity in the population.
Hospitalizations and deaths are also expected to decrease particularly due to decreased age profile of cases (although antibody tests show that even in the first wave, the highest proportions of inflamed were young adults and the lowest were over 65 years); increased coverage of endangered maximums and in all likelihood a decrease in viral load by social estating and masks.
We are also much better able to control the disease with more effective treatments. Another thing that reduces overall excess mortality this winter is that the flu season can be much less severe than the flu season due to coronavirus measures, as has been the case in Australia.
But it is also vital to realize that although the NHS was not defeated through the cases of Covid-19 (regarding the use of extensive care beds and extensive care), the first wave, and this is something I have only recently enjoyed, the NHS facilities in total were surpassed.
The only way the NHS can cope is to close many essential facilities that caused the suffering and death of thousands of people, especially cancer patients, and massive increases in waiting lists. Covid-19/hospitalization cases at a much smaller point this time, to ensure that all essential NHS facilities continue to operate as, in a different way, we threaten thousands of more deaths again.
In conclusion, unfortunately, the pandemic is far from over and a wave at the moment has the possibility of causing very significant direct and oblique damage to health. Doing nothing obviously isn’t an option, but a lock at the moment shouldn’t be either, as I’ll be on this site next week.
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