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Belarusian dissident journalist Tadeusz Giczan gave Express. co. uk an occasional look at the Russian military’s operations in Belarus. Speaking in Warsaw, Giczan compared the pro-Vladimir Putin Belarusian regime under Aleksandr Lukashenko to World War II collaborators before suggesting that the Kremlin’s attempts to mount a Belarusian offensive in northern Ukraine not take off.
Giczan told Express. co. uk that the Kremlin’s recent buildup near the Belarus-Ukraine border is just Putin’s mind game.
Asked if Russia is more likely to launch an attack from Belarus, the journalist replied: “Not in the short term at least because although there are some troop movements, it is what we had in February or January in preparation for the actual invasion. “, so it is more of a psychological operation.
“The Ukrainian army admits at this point that this is more of a psychological operation.
“Most Russian troops come to Belarus for education because they have mobilized at least 300,000 other people and do not have an educational center in Russia. “
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“So he’s Belarusian running camps to train those recruits. “
Giczan described February’s Russian advance from Belarus as a “stab in the back” of Belarus.
Ukrainian army planners were waiting for the attack that reached the outskirts of the capital, Kyiv, before being repelled in fierce fighting.
Giczan told Express. co. uk “Belarus is necessarily a satellite state for Putin.
“[Belarus] has the importance, for example, that Vichy France had for Nazi Germany or Hungary or Romania fought for Nazi Germany. “
Putin is known for pressuring Lukashenko to fully participate in the Russian operation in Ukraine, as the Belarusian dictator is unwilling to threaten his own control of force in such a threatening military effort.
Military analysts have cast serious doubt on the Belarusian regime’s ability to engage domestic opposition if Lukashenko makes the decision to bolster Russian forces with its own internal security troops. Jacek Raubo, a leading expert on the Polish army, told Express. co. uk later that Lukashenko would have lost some of the compatibilities to avoid any infighting because there will be no effective troops and no more effective armed forces.
The Warsaw-based defense analyst24 predicted that the Belarusian army’s losses would be very high in the event of an attempted incursion.
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“We know they will lose a lot of troops because the Ukrainians are aware of an invasion on the Belarusian side,” he told Express. co. uk.
“They are preparing their own border, they are laying minefields, they are building fortifications and above all they are offering troops lately to this component of the border with Belarus. “
“So those losses and even the use of components of his security forces or armed forces will be Lukashenko’s last wish,” Raubo said.
“He’s betting a game with Ukraine, and especially with Russia to help his strength and play that component of that connection with Putin. “