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OPEC countries agreed to continue production cuts this week, up to 2. 2 million tonnes from the market, but the move did not impress the market much.
Markets remain strong, even if they have failed to build on their impressive gains. Maybe they’re taking a break before the holiday celebration, because after all, winter has begun, which means there are already light fixtures and holiday plans all over the place. People started celebrating in anticipation. Take Elon Musk, for example. Too much was allowed after a trap with Israel and sent in the big corporations that refused to promote it in their favorite concept X. His main target was Disney, which he certainly won’t forget. It’s possible that another villain will appear in the Marvel Universe. Although it is unlikely to be congratulated with the prefix “super”. Of course, it’s interesting to see how much longer the economy and the market will forgive Musk’s shortcomings. In some ways, it’s still important to be the richest man in the world and the market is still close to local highs. The S-Index
There is some interesting news from Europe.
Inflation there has fallen sharply and has reached the desired reference level. Inflation in the eurozone 2. 4% in November. Now I’m wondering if I’m going too fast, that is, if inflation has fallen too sharply, and if this is evidence of some kind of deep crisis rather than the comfortable landing the market has been talking about lately. Furthermore, Chinese know-how does not please those who would like to avoid a global recession. But the German economy has been connected to China’s in recent years. But what interests the market most are, of course, the prices. And the more the symptoms of disinflation multiply, the more positive become speculators and bankers, whom JP Morgan is in a position to advise to prepare their glasses and chill their champagne. Be in a position to celebrate the moment when regulators officially claim that inflation has been defeated and vanquished like the Russians at Austerlitz (by then everyone will have seen the horrible new movie Napoleon and will have a false impression of how this happened), and so on. It’s time to raise rates.
The downside of this holiday is a cooling of the economy. No wonder that all attempts by oil barons to raise oil prices have so far been in vain. Hinting that the problems in the market are still on the demand side. Even the attempts to play with supply, which Saudi Arabia and Co. have continued, do not help. OPEC+ countries agreed to continue cutting production this week, cutting as much as 2.2 million tons from the market. As usual, Saudi Arabia took the biggest hit. The kingdom accounts for up to 50% of the participation in the operation “Saving the Dream of $100 per barrel oil price.” Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman, and, of course, Russia are expected to contribute. Moscow has promised the same 500 thousand tons again, but it is still being determined whether it will fulfill its promise, and it is unclear how much oil Russia supplies, to whom, and how much. This gesture made little impression on the market, especially since the United States and Iran do not play these games; they are increasing production, and few people believe in a major war on the part of Venezuela. As a result, oil prices, which had risen slightly on expectations, fell after the decision itself. As of Friday morning, the benchmark Brent is worth $80 per barrel.
In the Ukrainian segment of Eurobonds, everyone is waiting for news from the EU and the US, where discussions and preparations for voting on the allocation of aid to Ukraine for 2024 have entered the home stretch. So far, both smell like optimistic decisions, but the market prefers to wait. Moreover, the factor of inadequate macho men (there are so many of them that there may not be enough room for them in all the parallel Marvel universes) remains in force, and both Orban and Trump are getting on our nerves. And in the United States, Democrats and Republicans still can’t agree on the border, namely, how much to curb the flow of migrants. While Democrats have already taken it for granted that migration is a problem that can be easily felt by simply walking into the center of New York City, many Republicans still hope that they will be allowed to shoot without warning. And with good news comes selling. As a result, sovereigns fell by a point across the yield curve.
But the variants have multiplied. We are encouraged by the absence of bombing, because it is already December 1 and there has not yet been a significant cut-off of forces. As a result, unlike last year, businesses are operating at full capacity and GDP is growing faster than expected. The monthly GDP expansion in October was 10. 5% year-on-year. As a result, analysts are already revising their forecasts for 2023, expecting an expansion of more than 5%, even if power outages occur in December. The picture remains unclear, giving timid hope that the Russians have chosen some other insidious plan. The domestic market is calm. The National Bank even took the liberty of lifting some additional financial restrictions. The most important of them is the restriction on the acquisition of foreign currency through households. The BNU estimated that there had been no queues forming in front of the exchange offices lately and that its resolution would not cause any noise in order to liberalize them. In the interbank market, however, the hryvnia weakened this week, reflecting adjustments in accordance with the mysterious NBU formula, which is now as vital to bankers as the discovery of the philosopher’s stone formula is to medieval alchemists. .
P. S. Il is one corner of the universe that you can be sure will improve, and that is your own self.
Aldous Huxley
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