New York, July 11 – According to the World Population Prospects 2024: Results Summary report released today, the world’s population is projected to peak in the mid-2080s, rising from 8. 2 billion people in 2024 to approximately 10. 3 billion in the next 60s. billion years until the mid-2080s, and then back to around 10. 2 billion by the end of the century. The length of the world’s population in 2100 is now expected to be six percent smaller (or 700 million less) than projected a decade ago. behind.
“The demographic landscape has changed especially in recent years,” said Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs. “In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than expected, and we are also seeing a slightly faster decline in some high fertility regions. The earlier and lower peak is a sign of hope. This could simply mean a decrease in environmental pressures caused by human impact due to a decrease in overall consumption. However, declining population growth will not eliminate the need to reduce the average impact attributable to each individual’s activities.
The above population increase is due to several factors, including declining fertility levels in some of the world’s largest countries, including China. Globally, women have an average of one fewer child than in 1990. In more than a portion of all countries and regions, the average number of live births consistent with that of women is less than 2. 1 (the point required for a population to reach a consistent point of long-term live births without migration) and nearly one-fifth of all countries and regions, adding China, Italy, the Republic of Korea and Spain now have “ultra-low” fertility, with less than 1. 4 live births per woman over her lifetime.
In 2024, the population length peaked in 63 countries and regions, adding China, Germany, Japan, and the Russia Federation, and the total population of this organization is expected to decline by 14% over the next thirty years for a further 48 countries and regions, adding up the population of Brazil, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Turkey and Viet Nam peaks between 2025 and 2054. The remaining 126 countries include India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States. The population of the United States is expected to increase until 2054 and potentially peak in the second part of the century or later. In nine countries of the latter organization, including Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger and Somalia, a very immediate expansion is expected, with a total population that will double between 2024 and 2054.
Early pregnancy remains a challenge, especially in low-income countries. In 2024, 4. 7 million babies, or about 3. 5% of the global total, were born to mothers under the age of 18. Of these, about 340,000 were born to young people under the age of 18. 15 years, with serious consequences for the health and well-being of young people, young mothers and their children.
The report shows that investing in schooling for young people, especially girls, and raising the age of marriage and first child in countries where such phenomena occur early will have positive outcomes for women’s health, schooling and participation in life. labour market. These efforts will also help curb population expansion and reduce the scale of investment needed to achieve sustainable development, while ensuring that no one is left behind.
Over the past three decades, mortality rates have decreased and life expectancy has increased significantly. After a brief decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic, global life expectancy at birth is rising again, reaching 73. 3 years in 2024, up from 70. 9 years during the pandemic. By the end of the 2050s, more than a proportion of all deaths in the world will occur in people aged 80 and over, a very significant increase from 17 percent in 1995.
By the end of the 2070s, the number of older people aged 65 years and older is expected to exceed the number of young people (under 18 years of age), while the number of older people aged 80 years and older is expected to exceed the number of babies (under 18 years old). ). 1 year) until the mid-2030s. Even in countries that are still developing and have relatively young populations, the number of older people aged 65 and older is expected to increase over the next 30 years.
All documents, such as the World Population Outlook 2024, including the synthesis report and the full data set, are available at population. un. org.
Media Contacts:
Sharon Birch | United Nations Department of Global Communications | Email: birchs@un. org
Helen Daun Rosengren – España | United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs | Email: rosengrenh@un. org
Karoline Schmid – España | UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs | Email: schmidk@un. org