According to the report “Update on Poverty, Shared Prosperity and Equity”, poverty still exists in Guinea-Bissau. Between 2018 and 2021, this figure increased by 2. 8 percentage points, which is equivalent to more than 80,000 more people with disabilities.
Data from the 2018/19 and 2021/22 Harmonized Household Living Conditions Surveys (EHCVM) showed that poverty increased from 47. 7% in 2018 to 50. 5% in 2021. Poverty trends among 2018 and 2021 were largely in the same direction in urban spaces. . and rural spaces continue to be superior in rural spaces. In rural areas, more than a part of the country’s population is poor.
In the capital, Bissau, the poverty rate remained unchanged at 21%; however, in other urban areas, poverty increased between 2018 and 2021 and reached 42%. Not only is poverty more of a rural phenomenon in Guinea-Bissau, but the rural handicapped are also furthest from the poverty line compared to their counterparts in urban areas.
Guinea-Bissau has experienced steady and volatile economic expansion over the past decade. Economic expansion picked up in 2021 before slowing in 2022. Real GDP compatible with capita expansion reached 6. 4% in 2021 and 1. 5% in 2020; before slowing to 3. 5% in 2022 and is expected to slow further to 2. 8% in 2023.
The economy remains structurally vulnerable to industrial crises and climate risks. Recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has been hampered by new crises, compounded by the fallout from the war in Ukraine, which led to disruptions in global supply chains and rising food costs. Additionally, cashews, which make up 90% of commodity exports and a main source of income for more than 70% of households, have seen falling costs and volatile foreign demand since 2018.
Regional disparities in poverty trends persist; poverty is observed in the regions of Oio, Gabu and Quinara. The Oio region continues to record cases of poverty, with 72% of the population living in poverty in 2021, an increase of approximately 8. 3 percentage points from its 2018 degrees (see Figure 1).
The largest increase in poverty between 2018 and 2021 was recorded in the regions of Gabu and Biombo, where the increase in poverty increased between 14 and 12. 3 percentage points in the period (Figure 1), making Gabu the second region with the highest incidence of poverty in 2021. 2021.
Despite an overall increase in poverty, the regions of Cacheu, Bolama/Bijagos and Bafata experienced discounts of 7. 5, 5. 6 and 2. 3 percentages respectively in the occurrence of poverty during the period.
The lowest incidence of poverty is recorded in the Bissau region, where 21% of the population is deficient, the same rate as in 2018.
Figure 1: Evolution of poverty signs 2018/19 – 2021/22
Source: World Bank calculations on EHCVM 2021/22.
More than a proportion of the disabled (55 per cent) are concentrated in the regions of Oio, Gabu and Bafata. In addition to having the highest incidence of poverty, the regions of Oio and Gabu are home to 23. 7 and 17. 1 percent of Guinea-Bissau’s poor people, respectively (Maps 1a and 1b). The two regions registered more than 30,000 people with additional disabilities in 2021.
Furthermore, the Bafata region has the third highest proportion of poor population (14. 6%) despite a 2. 3 percent decrease in poverty during the period. Similarly, Bissau, which has a low incidence of poverty, has a slightly higher percentage of handicapped people: 11. 5% of the handicapped. On the other hand, poverty alleviation in the Cacheu and Bolama/Bijagós regions resulted in the alleviation of more than 10,000 and 1,000 people with disabilities, respectively.
Map 1: Signs of poverty by region (EHCVM 2021)
While all families experienced relief in their capita income between 2018 and 2021, it was the wealthiest families that experienced the greatest relief, leading to relief in inequality. Annualized expansion compared to capita income has declined by 2. 5% on average of the population.
However, the poorest families (the bottom 40% of the distribution) consistently experienced a decline of less than 1. 5% year over year. In contrast, wealthier families experienced a much larger decline; For example, the richest 10% of families consistently experienced a decline of up to 20% over the same period. As a result, Guinea-Bissau has recorded a slight reduction in income inequality. This is probably due to a more stable expansion in the agricultural sector over the years.
Read and download the “Update on Poverty, Shared Prosperity, and Equity” here.
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