The consequences of the coronavirus pandemic have created an economic crisis, a crisis that, involved through experts, can push more people into poverty.
Many organizations warned of the disproportionate effect of the virus, yet the United Nations went one step further on Friday, warning that “the worst effects of the crisis on poverty are yet to come. “
It is also a source of fear for Canadian experts.
“There is no doubt that the massive fall in employment will push others below the poverty line,” said David Macdonald, senior economist at the Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives.
“The genuine thing is, to what extent can government systems go backwards?”
In the years leading up to COVID-19, many Canadians were still below the poverty line.
Statistics Canada’s knowledge shows that the “poverty gap” is expanding between 2015 and 2018.
Although fewer people in Canada live on low incomes, recent recalculated numbers recommend that those still living in poverty have not noticed any improvement.
“Then, obviously, the pandemic of a historic decline in employment,” Macdonald said.
In April, when the coronavirus devastated the economy, Canada eliminated nearly two million jobs, as well as a decline in employment of more than one million in March. 13. 1 consistent with the penny set in December 1982.
Without the Canadian Emergency Response Subsidy (CERB), Canadians would have been in a “much worse situation,” Macdonald said.
But, he said, official poverty figures for this year will not be available until 2022, so “it is not yet completely transparent if (CERB) has kept poverty rates stable. “
The IE program would not have covered the number of Canadians who found the the most in urgent need of assistance, he said, nor would it have helped freelancers or structure workers. That’s where CERB responded.
“It is an essential support,” he said. But it expires. “
The latest rating consistent with the Canadian period for the $2,000 compatible with monthly benefits ends on September 26. At the time, the federal government promised a “smooth” transition to the IS program.
If it is, in fact, transparent is Macdonald’s concern. According to his analysis, of the approximately 4. 7 million Canadians who received CERB in early August, 1. 4 million would be eligible for IS under general rules.
Canada said it would make adjustments to expand its eligibility, but “some other people would possibly get much less because of their circumstances,” Macdonald said.
“It’s a huge risk. There’s a lot at stake here,” he said.
“If it goes well, it may mean that other people continue. If this goes wrong, either because your files are not transferred correctly or because they simply get much less because of your situation, you can leave other people at the end of 2020 with big profit drops. “
The transition is also a fear for The Food Banks of Canada (CBF). Food security, among other sources of income problems, is closely linked to poverty.
Prior to the pandemic in Canada, 4. 4 million Canadians lived in families with food insecurity due to monetary constraints, adding up to 1. 2 million children.
When the locks were installed and jobs were lost, the FBC saw an increase in the use of food banks. Many of those seeking assistance had never used food banks before, said Kirstin Beardsley, fbC’s network chief.
The arrival of CERB is “significantly,” he said, keeping the figures “at a comparable point year after year” after the initial peak.
“But other people have now gone through their CERB attribution. We have things like recoil eviction notices. People who may have deferred bills may now want to pay the bills,” Beardsley said.
“People had to stay afloat with CERB. To the end, we are involved that there will be a time when other people simply won’t be able to make everything work. “
Beardsley stated that the transition from CERB to E. A. It is necessary, however, given the evolution of aid eligibility and the wide variety of cases faced by Canadians, she is involved in other people possibly relying on their savings or sinking more into credit card debts.
“People will do a lot before they go into the bank,” he says.
“We know that many other people live from one salary to another or have a limited amount of savings. While you work, even a little, you can turn it all up, but as soon as you lose your source of income, that is not the case. “
The COVID-19 scenario in Canada, as it is around the world, is changing, as Macdonald noted.
While the economy has recovered to some extent, he said, a number of variables can aggravate or worsen the Canadian monetary scenario in the coming months. One is the inevitable replacement of the season.
Restaurants and the hotel industry were seriously affected by the pandemic. When resolution makers gave the go-ahead to reopen in different capacities, many reopened with reduced seats and pointed to outdoor patios.
Macdonald is involved in that because it is too bloody for the outside and the internal seats remain closed, staffing in those industries can also fluctuate.
“Job titles are still where they were, but they are potentially much higher than they will be in November and December,” he said.
Another variable is the availability and care of children, he said.
As schools reopened in Canada, virus outbreaks continued. If schools were forced to close again, “we could see a lot more tension on that front,” she said.
“Once the youth get home, other people will have to avoid working. And most women have given up their jobs or taken hours off to take care of young people. The same can happen this fall. “
That’s why economic stimulus plans want to “take everything into account” and “not leave other people behind,” Beardsley said.
“We don’t need other people to fall into a cycle of poverty, because it’s so hard to get out of it. “
– with Canadian Press and Erica Alini of Global News