The latest official knowledge indicates that Portugal has an average of 735 infections with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, but epidemiologist Manuel Carmo Gomes warned that the actual number of cases could be only about 3 times higher.
“As for the number of new cases, we are above 2,000 a day, at least,” the professor at the University of Lisbon’s Faculty of Sciences told Lusa on Friday.
The latest report from the National Institute of Health (INSA) Doutor Ricardo Jorge, released on Thursday, estimates that the five-day average of cases is 735 infections nationwide, dropping to 619 in the continent.
Manuel Carmo Gomes said that since the SNS 24 line stopped prescribing Covid-19 tests following the end of the alert scenario in Portugal on October 1, the occurrence data in the country “are representative of reality. “
“Currently we only know the effects of the controls carried out in hospitals and other people who have taken the trouble to obtain a prescription to control themselves,” warned the specialist, for whom this reduction in the screening of infections compromises the punctual monitoring of the pandemic in Portugal.
Given the evolution of tests, the “guide” on the Covid-19 scenario in the country has become the number of hospitalizations and deaths, signs that “the number of cases can be weeks,” explained the epidemiologist.
In addition, “how many cases of a disease occur decreases the belief of risk” among the population, Carmo Gomes also stressed.
“An infectious disease that spreads silently is protected by the lack of measures that can only slow its progression, and when in spite of everything we realize that the burden of disease in the population is already high, it becomes more difficult to counteract its spread, also noted the professor of the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon.
The epidemiologist said it is possible that the number of infections will continue to rise in Portugal, that there is a “slightly upward trend” of other people hospitalized due to Covid-19.
“In September and October we had less than 400 beds occupied in the Covid-19 wards. Now we are at almost 500 beds,” warned Manuel Carmo Gomes, adding that deaths remain “for a long time in five and six days. “, however, in recent days the average has risen to 7. 6 deaths. “
“Hopefully this trend will be confirmed, but we have to wait a few more days to find out,” he said.
One of the points of uncertainty about the evolution of Covid-19 is that, in recent months, the Omicron variant has been deployed in many subvariants, which “it is not uncommon for them to possess mutations that allow them to evade our antibodies,” says the expert.
“For now, they are no more pathogenic than the first Omicron (BA. 1, BA. 2 and BA. 5), but we still know very little about their clinical significance,” Gomes said.
The specialist indicated that the coming weeks will be decisive to perceive if the flow of these new subvariants, combined with the arrival of bloodless weather in Portugal, will contribute to an imaginable accumulation of cases and hospitalizations.
France is the first European country where “BQ. 1 exceeded the threshold of 50% between instances and, for now, there is no evidence of greater pathogenicity,” said the epidemiologist.
“Without a doubt, all those who care about the dynamics of covid and the physical state of the public would love to have more representative notifications of the number of cases,” said Manuel Carmo Gomes.
With the government’s resolution to renew the state of alert, several laws, decree-laws and resolutions approved in the context of the pandemic have ceased to be in force, adjustments that have affected the “population surveillance and consequent interpretation of indicators” of Covid-19. 19 have recently been recognised by DGS and INSA.
In practice, in addition to isolation no longer being mandatory, Covid-19 tests are no longer prescribed through the SNS24 and are now reimbursed by prescription, as are other diagnostic tests and complementary tests.
On Thursday, the Minister of Health, Manuel Pizarro, announced that an assembly of experts would take position on the 11th to make an inventory of Covid-19 in Portugal.