Estonia and other nations which make up NATO’s Eastern Flank, along with the alliance as a whole, have a three-year window in which to avoid war with Russia, according to the head of Poland’s National Security Bureau (BBN). Other expert estimates from European NATO member states put the time-frame at between five years and a decade.
Jacek Siewiera, minister to the Polish president and head of the BBN, asked for comment on a report by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) that says NATO has five to ten years to adequately prepare for a Russian crisis. The attacker said, “Unfortunately yes. “
He even used the German “optimistic” calendar, citing studies in the United States as the basis for his claims.
“This research is consistent with studies conducted in the United States. However, in my opinion, the timetables presented by German analysts are too optimistic. If we want to avoid war, NATO countries on the eastern flank adopt a shorter timeline, in 3 This is the time when we want to create a perspective on the eastern flank that clearly deters aggression,” Siewiera continued, as quoted by the English-language Warsaw Business Journal, in a Saturday article.
Siwiera is reportedly also a army officer, medical doctor, lawyer and expert in anaesthesiology and intensive therapy, and in 2017 oversaw the world’s first publicized case of successful recovery from high-altitude decompression sickness, an act he was awarded with the Cross of Merit for Bravery by the President of the Republic of Poland, Andrzej Duda.
Siwiera was also awarded the Illinois Military Merit Medal, a result of moves to combat the Covid pandemic, its peak of infection in the United States.
German think tank: “The attack, which is in addition to the Baltic states, may begin once Russia is sure of its success”
In a research piece posted on November 8, the DGAP, an independent German foreign policy research institute, put the window within which NATO, including Germany, must get their armed forces on to a footing.
This would involve positional roles adapted to a Russian attack scenario, five to ten years after the end of extensive fighting in Ukraine.
In other words this would be the time-scale Russia would require to reconstitute its armed forces sufficiently for an attack westwards, the DGAP reports.
The direction of this attack could come precisely from the Baltic countries, the DGAP adds.
“The window for a possible Russian attack will open as soon as Russia believes that an attack, for instance on the Baltic states, could meet with success.”
According to the DGAP, this preparation would also be the way NATO allies could limit the threat of a new war in Europe.
With its imperial ambitions, Russia poses the greatest and most urgent risk to NATO countries, while the alliance can only reliably influence its own deterrence and defense capability, not Russia’s actual resolve on whether or not to fight the war, the document continues.
NATO’s strategy paths range from “Better safe than sorry” to “Fighting with the army you have.” each with their own political and economic “payoffs,” as well as their on risk scenarios.
An additional geostrategic strategy can save NATO time, writes the DGAP.
On Germany alone, the DGAP says it must “deliver a quantum leap.”
This “leap forward” would not only fear general problems such as the accumulation of workers in the army and the expansion of military equipment, but would also require “a change of mentality in society. “
Volodymyr Zelenskyy: Russia could attack from 2028 if Ukraine war frozen
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in October made an estimate closer to that of his Polish neighbor, Poland.
The Ukrainian World Congress, an NGO representing public organizations in the Ukrainian diaspora, reported in October that Zelensky had said long-term invasions by other states could take place in 2028, if the war in Ukraine turns into a frozen conflict.
“Now Russia has other scenarios for the next few years. One of them is dangerous. If there is a pause in this aggression against Ukraine, a freezing of the situation, then there will be a new critical moment: the year 2028. “he added. ” Zelenskyy said, bringing out the knowledge of Ukraine’s intelligence services.
“If Russia is allowed to adapt now, then in 2028 the Kremlin will repair the potential army that we have destroyed, and Russia will have sufficient strength to attack countries that are in the midst of Russian expansion. “
These are, in addition to Ukraine, “the Baltic States and the countries on whose territory Russian contingents are present,” Zelensky continued, possibly referring to the Russian minority populations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
Czech head of state: all about the final results of the war in Ukraine
Czech President Petr Pavel was more in the German camp, in late November putting the time-scale at at least five to seven years to fully restore its combat capabilities, European Pravda reports, quoting České Noviny.
Much hinges on what happens in Ukraine, he added, speaking at a Visegrad heads of state summit.
“On the other hand, there are many variables in the calculations that modify the situation. It will depend on the final results of the war in Ukraine,” Pavel said.
EuroPravda runs the www. eurointegration. com. ua website, created in 2014 through an organization of journalists run by Sergiy Sydorenko and Yurii Panchenko, which focuses on Ukraine’s European future.
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