Philippines: BSP raises rates to 50 bps – UOB

UOB Group Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting comment on the rate hike through the BSP.

“As expected, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) continued to normalize its key rates (August 18) with an additional accumulation of 50 base issues. This brings the overnight repurchase rate (RSO) to 3. 75%, the demand deposit rate to 3. 25%, and the loan rate to 4. 25%. Today’s interest rate increase marked the fourth consecutive rate to accrue with 175 base issues accumulated since May.

“The Monetary Council (MB) has that additional financial policy measures are needed to anchor inflation expectations and avoid further over-target inflation over the political horizon. The strong domestic economic expansion in H122 also gave the central bank the flexibility to act against inflationary pressures. It expects national headline inflation to rise further to 5. 4% this year (from its June estimate of 5. 0%, UOB is: 5. 0%) before slowing to 4. 0% in 2023 (from the June estimate of 4. 2%, UOB is: 4. 0%) and 3. 2% in 2024 (from the June estimate of 3. 3%).  »

“Overall, financial policy and the BSP governor’s comments at today’s press conference indicated that MBs continue to leave the door open to further rate increases. That said, BSP almost completely reversed its collective rate cuts of two hundred fundamental emissions during the pandemic. Persistent uncertainties, namely the dangers of a global recession until 2023, and a transitory decline in global oil costs may also lead the central bank to suspend rate hikes soon. Therefore, we maintain our call to BSP to raise its key interest rates through 25 additional base issues in September and then keep the RSO rate at 4. 00% through 4Q22 and 2023, unless the global and national environments move in unforeseen directions.

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