With the outbreak of COVID-19 cases in the United States and what may be just symptoms of an upcoming increase in Houston, we spoke with vaccine researcher Dr. Peter Hotez. Since March, when we started these long interviews, he has provided the impression not only as Houston’s most productive explainer of the new coronavirus, but also as one of the most productive in the country. He is the Dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine and co-director of Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development.
In this week’s interview, talk about the next increase and why you’ll take the first vaccine you can get.
The number of coronavirus infections is expanding in the Etts-Unis, I know this doesn’t surprise you, but what are you thinking right now?
Nationally, we’ve been talking for a long time about this autumn and winter wave, and obviously this is going to happen. Unfortunately, over the next two days, we have damaged the records of new instances of COVID-19 in a non-marriage day.
It is accelerating in the northern Midwest – Wisconsin, in particular, and the Dakotas – and also in western states like Wyoming and Utah. Much of it is probably similar to the colder climate. People are internal and the virus survives very well in this environment. Not only is it possible that more people are exposed to the virus indoors, but they may also be exposed to a greater inoculum of the virus. I think we will start to see the increase in hospitalizations, not only the number of cases, but also the severity of the cases.
I was a little surprised to pass through El Paso and along the border with Mexico to New Mexico, Las Cruces, says so, I am not surprised that there are many COVID there, I am only surprised that it is coming down now. I don’t know what happened there and what it means to the rest of Texas.
In Houston, numbers are rising, but not dramatically, not as bad as in the rest of the country. Maybe it’s because it’s sunny now and there are other people out there.
I know the numbers will be overlooked in Texas. My secret hope is that it may not be as bad as the rest of the country, but I’m not sure.
At what point can this next circular be bad for America?
Nothing is holding back the sharp increase in peak countries, that is, in the northern states, and I think it will also move northeast. Right now, it’s more of a overflight problem. By that I mean that it is not so bad in New England, in the mid-Atlantic states or on the west coast, however, everything in the middle, especially when you move to latitudes further north, is bad.
I think it’s going to be bad all over the country, the numbers will keep going up. I’m involved in some of the Institute of Health Assessment and Measures’ predictions, predicting 511,000 deaths in the United States as of February 28. It’s a terrible figure, more than double what we have now. The country is entering a very volatile period.
Things will get better. We will have vaccines next year, but until then it may be one of the worst periods of our epidemic, and this comes after everyone is already exhausted after a terrible year. I am concerned not only that other people will contract COVID-19, but also for our intellectual health – being unhappy and depressed is a general reaction to what will be an even more stressful situation.
I am also involved in the post-election period, if the vote goes against the president, as many predict, I am concerned that a lame executive branch of the federal government will leave others feeling abandoned and alone. will respond is a great unknown.
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That’s a lot.
It’s a little apocalyptic, unfortunately. But it’ll get better.
I believe that next year, at this time, our quality of life will be much better.
We have run out of a national public aptitude reaction at COVID-19. The White House has put all its eggs in the biotechnology basket. They said it all depends on vaccines and monoclonal antibodies. And unfortunately, it takes time. This is not an ultra-fast solution.
At this point next year, I think a significant percentage of the US population is in the middle of the world. But it’s not the first time She’ll be vaccinated. I don’t know how well those vaccines will work. I think we’ll probably still want tactile searches, masks and social distance. But there will be complementarity, technologies, so things will be much better, they may even be better during the summer.
We just have to go through this complicated winter. I propose that you identify the organization of other people you are moving into social distance this winter. Try to minimize contact with others outdoors in your sphere of social distance. And take care of your intellectual aptitude; have access to intellectual aptitude counseling.
How are you and your family?
It’s an unhappy moment. We didn’t notice our eldest adult daughter, Emily, who is a researcher at UCLA, we didn’t need her to fly, so the plan was that she was going to drive here with her husband from Los Angeles, but you can’t do this in a race. You have to spend the night somewhere in New Mexico or El Paso, and now it’s terrible there. We had to cancel that idea.
Compared to what other people are going through, it’s small, isn’t it?But it’s an unhappy moment. Ann and I haven’t noticed our two older adults since January.
It’s a delight for the country, and this kind of isolation has consequences, this winter is going to be a very scary and complicated time.
Do you still feel the influence of the antiscientific forces?Do you still listen to the anti-vaccine groups a lot?
I think a lot of things have happened. Vaccine teams that have used this fake platform of medical freedom and medical freedom have now exploited COVID-19 not only for a cross opposed to vaccines, but now they also oppose mask and touch research. In fact, it’s vital here in Texas and Oklahoma. Unfortunately, it is now the White House and the White House Coronavirus Working Group.
You know, in July I proposed this “October 1 plan” for the country, a way that we could have put things back into containment mode. If we had, we may have kept the number of instances low enough to carry us until spring when vaccines were available. We may have stored tens of thousands of lives, if thousands.
The White House needed nothing to do with this plan; instead, they exhibited this new individual, Dr. Scott Atlas, and it has become completely unscientific. He gave her all the fake numbers. He said herd immunity can happen at 22 percent, which is ridiculous, but that’s not true.
He tried to minimize the effect of the virus and, in fact, insisted on opening schools even in high-transmission spaces. They relied on Great Barrington’s what newspapers report as a debatable organization supported through the Koch family.
And now the United States is exporting this antiscientific movement. For more than two months, protests against vaccines and masks have taken a position in European capitals: in Berlin, Paris, London. CBS News and other media report that the protests are supported by QAnon and even neo-Nazi groups.
So this motion of “freedom of health” that came here from Texas, of all places, is now a globalized and flourishing antiscientific motion, and has fatal consequences only in the United States, but also in Europe.
I don’t know where he’s going, but I write and communicate a little bit about it. We will have to consider this as a risk to internal security and treat it accordingly.
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How’s your vaccine?
Our laboratory is recently expanding the production of our vaccine in India, generating one billion doses and clinical trials will soon begin. My clinical wife for 20 years, Dr. Maria Elena Bottazzi, she and I are in communication day and night with India, as well as with other parts of Asia and Latin America, to spread this vaccine worldwide.
Wouldn’t this vaccine require the bloodless garage effect needed by some of the less solid vaccines?
This will require what is called a “bloodless chain”: it will need to be refrigerated to four degrees Celsius. But this is true for maximum vaccines. It will not require the -9 four degree Fahrenheit bloodless garage that will need the Pfizer vaccine. There will be many other logistical hurdle, but it is feasible.
Will you get one of those accelerated vaccines for Operation Warp Speed?
I’m asked about Operation Warp Speed’s vaccines: “Hey, Dr. Hotez, what vaccine are you for?”
I don’t expect anything. I will take all FDA-approved vaccines, either through the full approval procedure or if the FDA releases them through an emergency use authorization.
Some of those early Operation Warp Speed vaccines won’t be the most productive in terms of protection. Our coronavirus paints over the past decade have shown that the most productive indicator of how our lab animals will cope with COVID-19 is whether or not they will. they have antibodies that neutralize viruses. And that’s what all vaccines do: they use other technologies, but our vaccine, as well as The Pfizer, Modern, all work by induction of higher levels of antibodies to neutralize viruses.
I feel uncomfortable going this winter without antibodies against viruses in my formula, I am very vulnerable, like everyone else, so if you are offering me one of those Operation Warp Speed vaccines, even if they are not the most productive, it is better to have antibodies that neutralize the viruses in my formula; that’s what’s going to keep me out of the hospital or intensive care unit.
Don’t wait for the most productive vaccine. Don’t let the most productive be an enemy of the good. Get antibodies that neutralize viruses in your formula if you can get vaccinated. If this is not the most productive vaccine, you can still receive a booster, perhaps one of the most productive vaccines available, or perhaps a booster with the same vaccine. We don’t know anything about sustainability and coverage, we don’t know what will be more productive, but get what you can and avoid the hospital, and keep your family circle out of the hospital.
That’s the message Americans want to hear. Communication around Operation Warp Speed has been horrible. There hasn’t been a communication strategy from the federal government. Everything has been left to the CEOs of pharmaceutical companies, who have misunderstood this message, that many other people are now saying that COVID-19 vaccines will not be put on or that they will wait.
I can’t get tense enough: this is not the kind of thing to expect. It will be a dreadful and dreadful winter, probably even here in Houston. Then yourself.
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So, even if, as a component of an emergency use authorization, a vaccine will have gone through a clinical trial procedure as long and extensive as it normally would, do you think the threat of side effects is low enough for coverage to be valuable??
Yes, that’s right. Keep in mind that these are giant clinical trials: 30,000 people, and in the case of the Johnson vaccine
The challenge with the full approval procedure is that even if you make an expedited approval, it can take six to nine months. Let’s say, as an argument, that we have soft green on December 1. If you wait six to nine months, it’s a public broadcast in May or August.
Since there has been no federal reaction to COVID-19 and we would possibly be at 1,000 deaths consistent over the day, or up to 2,000 deaths, you realize that thousands of lives would be lost if you went through the approval process. I can’t let that happen.
We have never granted an emergency authorization for the public to have access to a primary vaccine. So what will it look like?
Well, in my discussions with FDA leaders, it’s transparent that they’re doing everything imaginable to get closer to the full approval process. It probably wouldn’t be exactly the same. But I think it’s close enough that we’re doing well.
FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn got off to a difficult start, but he recovered. He’s doing a smart job. He has a very intelligent mastery of the vaccine problem, so I’m proud he’s a Houstonian.
What else do you think of those days?
I still walk around Montrose with my wife at night or in the morning, and hardly anyone wears a mask. Looks like a business as usual. People here still don’t see the importance of dressing in masks even outdoors.
The Institute for Health Metrics projects that with 95% of mask use, we could save 129,000 lives in the United States, but this message has not penetrated the general public, so we still see many other people on the sidewalk or in restaurants. and bars without masks. In some cases, other people hesitate to wear masks, but I think most people just don’t get that information.
So I’m looking for the people of Houston to put on their masks and be ready. This can be a very difficult winter in terms of peak in cases of COVID-19.
I think in many northern states we’re going to see big increases in hospitals, and that’s when mortality rates happen, I’m afraid what happened in New York will be repeated in 10 or 15 towns across the country. escape this destination in Houston.
In addition to dressing up in masks, other people want to be very aware of the scenario: stick to numbers, keep up with the news, take a look at the new case numbers. We may be at the beginning of the exponential expansion curve, so control new case numbers, control hospitalization rates, control positivity rates, be flexible, and adjust accordingly.
If the numbers shoot sharply in Houston, as in the rest of the country, and you start hearing about an outbreak in hospitals, then be careful. Be prepared to start over with social esttachment.
There are many unknowns about how it will spread this winter here. Some of my colleagues say some of their hospitals are increasing. This is not yet reflected in the TMC figures, but be aware of this.
One thing: what are your Thanksgiving plans?
Thanksgiving will be quite modest. In the past, we took out our fried bb turkey, I still hope we do, unless this year it’s probably just me, Ann and our adult daughter with special needs, Rachel.
I look forward to seeing our son Dan, who works in the oil and fuel industry, and his girlfriend. We see to perceive how we do this because they are in the workplace, so it is difficult for them to distance themselves socially.
Do we do it outdoors, you know, while we take a social distance?Shall we throw the fried BB turkey cut and wait for it to fall on the plate?[Laughter].
I can’t complain. They were safe.
lisa. gray@chron. com, twitter. com/LisaGray_HouTX
Lisa Gray is a senior editor at the Office of Functions. Previously, she held several of Chronicle’s most attractive positions: digital editor, corporate editor, editorial board member, interim editor, columnist and, most importantly, founding editor of Gray Matters, The Chronicle named “Best Blog” in Texas 3 years in a row.
Email or stay with lisa. gray@chron. com on Facebook, where you spend too much time.